The Burlingame Voice

Planning for a Rollicking Rollins Rd.

I’m very excited by the impending housing growth in North Burlingame that will end up bringing “thousands of new homes” to the Rollins Rd. industrial section of town.  The amount of planning that went into this decision by state and county officials, the City Council, the Planning Commission and city staff is impressive.  Here are the details:

Water:   I know the decision makers have a grasp on our dire water situation because they said so back in May  calling it “alarming”.  They also know the SFPUC cannot be trusted to keep the Peninsula’s water interests front-of-mind regardless of whatever “contract” we have with them, so the negotiations with the state to gain access to Bayfront land for our new desalinization plant (instead of a park) are to be complemented.  Desalinized drinking water is about ten times as expensive as water agencies buy now due to the energy costs.  Then there is the cost of getting rid of the brine, but the free land access will help the economics.  The new water tank on Rollins will ensure reliable water for the new neighborhood.

Outflow:  In the spirit of “what goes in, must come out”, the city study on sewage treatment capacity at the Bayfront plant will probably find a need for additional capacity, but we can be sure that raising the sewer rates to pay for it will be easy as we just saw this year.  Burlingame is a welcoming community, so higher rates will be fine with the public.

Power:  The decision makers’ extensive negotiations with PG&E to get it to strengthen the Burlingame grid are to be complemented.  Not only will the grid improvements supply the new desalinization plant’s load, but it will also ensure grid stability for the rest of the city.  Generous state and federal funding for new solar panels on the new construction and some existing Rollins Rd. buildings will help; as will a brand new grid-based battery facility.  Whoever got that big grant should get a promotion.  The natural gas pipes should be fine since there won’t be any natural gas allowed.

Schools:  Given the thousands of new homes coming, it was prescient of the city council to snap up a large parcel on Rollins Rd. and sign a long-term, low-cost lease with the Burlingame School District.  This will enable BSD to build a new school serving North Burlingame Eastside students.  The parcel may be large enough to also build a BIS Annex to cut down on car traffic to BIS.  I expect that the next school bond measure to pay for it all will pass easily as Burlingame is a welcoming community.

Traffic:  As we consider the extensive traffic study conducted as part of the General Plan update, it is gratifying to see that the Broadway grade separation project is now fully funded and we are ready to start The Big B'game Dig in 2022.  As today's SF Comicle notes:

The intersection of Caltrain and Broadway in Burlingame has the ignominious distinction of being the street-level train crossing most in need of fixing in the state, based on a calculation that factors in number of accidents, disruptions to local traffic and other overall safety concerns.  The busy crossing serves demand from trains, vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists, a hectic mix that has resulted in 11 car-train collisions in the past five years, a number of near misses and some fatal accidents. It has also caused considerable traffic backups: The crossing gate is currently down about an hour per day, and the city estimates that will rise to nearly three hours per day by 2040.

The project should go fast as most of them do; and be completed in time to help ease the load on Millbrae Ave. and Rollins Rd. for the new North Burlingame residents.  Luckily, the city’s negotiations with Caltrain were also successful in getting the Broadway station to reopen.  That will make a big difference for local traffic through the B'way intersection over the next 10 years.

Of course, Rollins Rd. isn't the only part of town with strong growth so all of these impending improvements will benefit the whole town.  That's why Burlingame is a welcoming community.

I admit I was initially skeptical about a huge new residential section at the north end of town.  It seemed like many of the growing pains would be intractable problems, but with a lot of diligent work everything appears to be on track.  Many people are to be complemented.

Caltrain: Electrification Costs Spiral

I revisit the electrification story about once a year and the situation never seems to change--it is taking longer than expected, costing more than expected and the duration and total costs are still unknown; as is the money source.  Here are some snippets from the DJ article:

Following the Friday announcement of additional cost overruns for Caltrain’s electrification modernization project, its board has authorized spending increases to ensure its completion, despite concerns over where funding will materialize.  Caltrain’s electrification project faces $462 million in additional costs following its settlement agreement with contractor Balfour Beatty Infrastructure, higher than its initial June estimate of $333 million.  COVID-19 related delays, utility issues and real estate have also played a role in increasing costs, Caltrain staff said.

Board Member Steve Heminger supported the additional funding for the project. However, he cautioned the board to prepare for the worst when it comes to a funding strategy. Heminger noted only slightly more than half of the extra costs are known and covered through federal grants and Measure RR funds, with the rest still to be found.  It has received around $52.4 million from the federal government... Credit financing will cover another $150 million, with Measure RR capital reserve funding accounting for $60 million.

That last bit, using Measure RR funds, is controversial because the alternative is "relying on member agency funding".  "$100 million here, $100 million there, pretty soon you are talking about real money" to paraphrase C. Everett Dirksen.  You can guess what that means.  At least the catenary wires have arrived in B'game as seen here near B'way.  And the bulk of the work on this is above ground.  Keep that in mind at the El Camino Real project gets discussed.

 

Friends With Benefits - Friends in High Places

We have not had a Friends With Benefits post in a long time, but this one just came barreling out of the blue like a runaway freight train.  If you are going to have friends in high places, I cannot think of a higher perch than the White House.  The SF Chronicle has the story:

California is being denied $12 billion in federal transit funds. Here's how it'll hurt the Bay Area

A decision by the Biden administration to withhold $12 billion in federal transit funds from California could immediately affect services provided by the Bay Area’s 27 transit operators as they attempt to recover deep financial losses sustained during the pandemic, local officials say.

The denial of the transit funding is the latest twist in a long dispute over whether California’s 2013 Public Employees’ Pension Reform Act, which capped pension benefits for new employees, infringes on the collective bargaining rights of public transit workers in the eyes of the federal government.   In an Oct. 28 decision, the Labor Department reversed a determination it made in 2019 and essentially deemed California’s law improper because the pension rules changes were implemented via legislation and not bargained with public unions.

Of the federal transit funds California stands to lose, about $9.5 billion would come from the money earmarked for the state in the infrastructure bill approved by Congress last week. Also at stake in the decision is $2.5 billion in federal COVID relief funds allocated to sustain transit services during the pandemic, which had not yet gained Labor Department certification at the time of the ruling.  It’s the loss of the latter bucket of money that could be felt most immediately by Bay Area transit agencies and their riders.

The article goes on to describe the potential impact on BART, the transBay corridor project, Muni, and the Golden Gate Bridge district.  It doesn't mention Caltrain or the High-speed rail project by name, but you have to believe they are in the mix--or out of the mix in this case as the Feds throw their weight around.

I happened to get an cursory update on the Caltrain electrification project a week ago:  92 foundations for poles are complete, 67 poles have been installed and all 10 power transformers are in place.  86 new cars have been shipped from Switzerland, 73 are in Salt Lake City for final assembly and 1 is in test in Colorado.  There was no word on whether further Fed funds will be held up over the pension reform fight since this just popped into the public view.

ECR: The Newest City Dump

I wonder if, like the drain maintenance, Caltrans expects the City to pick up the trash and dumped furniture along El Camino?  In this instance, maybe it's SamTrans responsibility?

El Camino Real Project: Comment Period is Open

The CA Department of Transportation has opened it website soliciting comments on the proposed major changes to El Camino Real in B'game.  The site is found here:  https://ecralternatives.com/      We last touched on the project back in January here.  The project has the potential to completely change ECR, so please click through to the old post and the official site and refresh your memory on what Caltrans has up its sleeve.  The DOT notes that

There has been much progress since the scoping meeting in May 2020. We’ve completed a visual survey of the trees, studied many environmental resource areas, and worked with our design group to develop alternatives for the project. The next step in our environmental scoping process is to announce publication of the Caltrans Notice of Intent (NOI) to Prepare an Environmental Impact Report/Environmental Impact Statement (EIR/EIS).

Since we got a very modest amount of rain today, it was disappointing to see flooding reappear on ECR.  The questions for B'gamers are do we really need to cut down all of the Blue Gum eucalyptus trees, bury all of the utilities (great idea but $$$$$) and approve the whole enchilada instead of trying one section to see what people who live here think?  Or could we just fix the drainage and repave the surface?  You have until December 17th to weigh in. Here is the April puddle on ECR hours after the rain stopped.

Caltrain: Will the RR Survive?

Big money has jumped into the Caltrain tax measure RR.  We touched on the saga in May here and December here.  The Daily Post reports that the yes side has raised $1.7 million dollars with recent funds from Google, Adobe, the Giants, Amgen and the usual developers and unions.  The television commercials are running fast and furious and the in-fighting between SF, San Mateo County and Santa Clara County officials has moved off the front page.  But the local letters to the editor are running strongly against handing Caltrain more money.  The bike-rail commuters don't like how the bike cars were set up.  The fiscal hawks can't believe management didn't make cuts during the worst days of Covid sheltering.  And the equality folks complain that the passengers are generally more well-off than the general public so why subsidize them.

All this comes with a backdrop of cost of living/affordability concerns that may make the idea of more sales tax a hard sell.  The late start due to the in-fighting may be enough to sink RR this time around.  What a change from the pre-Covid predictions of growth from 65,000 daily riders in 2018, to 243,000 daily riders in 2040.  If the high-cost rail albatross could be killed and plucked there would be more than enough rail money to go around the whole state.

 

Caltrain Red Ink, Shutdowns, Delays

The headlines read "Rough path for transit on horizon" (Chronicle), "Financial outlook for Caltrain is grim" and "Fears grow over delay of Caltrain electrification" (Daily Journal).  Ridership is down about 90% and the line is looking at more than an $80 million budget deficit through FY21.  It's hard to imagine getting on a crowded SRO train again, but it's easy to imagine many of the newly-minted work-at-home employees will continue at least some days.  What to do?

During the meeting, officials said additional federal funding beyond the CARES Act will be needed as well as a dedicated funding source. A proposed eighth-cent sales tax for Caltrain in each of the three counties along the corridor is winding its way through the approval process for placement on the November ballot.  Without new funding, furloughs and even a systemwide shutdown all become possibilities, officials said.

A hiring freeze has been implemented and overtime has been eliminated, to name two moves, and further reductions to service was also proposed. Even with the extremely low ridership of late, Caltrain is still running hourly service and a total of 40 trains a day, down from the usual 92 trains per day.

We noted the delays on the electrification program back in August when things were flush and the DJ is highlighting it again

According to John Funghi, chief officer of Caltrain’s Modernization Program, the foundation work is being paused this time because Balfour Beatty is running out of rebar cages needed for the job. That’s because Balfour Beatty failed to order more of them on time, Funghi added.   To stay on schedule and complete the remaining 1,380 foundations by the end of the year, an average of 174 foundations must be completed a month. Caltrain Board Member Dev Davis claimed fewer than 50 foundations have been completed a month on average since the work began.  But Funghi has argued monthly averages don’t provide the full picture as some months 50 foundations may be installed while other months are scheduled to see as many as 300 foundations installed.

Davis isn’t buying that argument.  “John you have said that for the last three months at least, including two of the months where we had zero foundations,” she said. “I’m sorry but I cannot believe it any longer.

From the sounds of it, a lack of rebar is the least of Caltrain's problems right now.  The sad thing is during all of the Board discussions being reported, nobody says "Hey, why don't we call the Governor and suggest he kill high-speed rail and use some of that money to prop up regular rail?"  As I noted elsewhere, there are at least a few Assemblymen thinking along those lines, so why doesn't the Caltrain board jump on board?  It would certainly add credibility to the November ask for more sales taxes to fund rail.

Death...Oops... Trains and Taxes

Since affordability is such a hot topic these days we should examine each and every effort to degrade our affordability.  Gas taxes.  Highway 101 fees.  Natural gas bans in new buildings--or at least so far only new buildings--so we can spend oodles on electricity.  School bonds and parcel taxes.  More bonds for affordable housing.  A sliver for the Rec Center.  I'll bet some of the regular Voice commenters can remember some that I am missing.  So here are the latest two-- a slice for the train and a big bite on commercial property which is to say a big bite on brick and mortar retail.  Amazon must be thrilled.

Earthquakes: Early Warning in Mexico

We do it all here at the Voice.  Topics galore that go from intensely local to lessons learned from afar.  Today's WSJ has an article about the early warning systems - plural - serving Mexico City.  They have three.  We Californians have a half of a system and nothing that reaches regular residents.  Here's the lessons that I drew from the piece:

-A non-profit called Center for Seismic Instrumentation and Registry (CIRES) has the government stamp of approval, but two tech start-ups, Grillo and SkyAlert are taking a different, more digital approach.

-CIRES has 96 sensors on the Pacific Coast that feed a system that makes public announcements on TV, radio and public places with the idea of a one-minute warning.

-Grillo and SkyAlert want to send alerts via wireless networks to phones, Twitter and in-home alarms--in other words more immediate and personal.

-The choice of sensors is important to avoid false alarms with a choice between cheap Asian sensors and better Japanese sensors (I know, both are Asian, but Japan has been working on this problem for years.

The Local Angle:  First, here is you reminder that the BNN Emergency Drill Day is coming up on October 12th.  Last year's is described here.  Find the closest one to you and join it.  Second, if we are to be burdened with high-cost, high-speed rail, the least the Authority can do is spend a little of the $100+ billion on an early-warning system and interface the trains to it.  You could argue Caltrain and Amtrak should also do that and they should, but they aren't doing 110 mph through densely populated areas.

Caltrain Electrification Starting to Slip Behind

For some reason, the SF Examiner lands in B'game driveways on Sundays.  Maybe that is when the progressive rag makes most of its money off of real estate ads so they need to bump up the print run.  This Sunday's edition highlighted that "Monitor warns of two-year Caltrain project delay" and then describes the back and forth between a federal monitor" and Caltrain about what constitutes a delay.  The project arrived in B'game about a year ago as noted here.  Here is a taste of the warning

“The overall progress of work is far behind the original schedule,” that oversight monitor warned. Foundation placement and the installation of the overhead electrical contact system are “far behind” initial projections, they wrote.  But the federal oversight monitor wrote in a June report, “The Electrification contractor’s most recent Schedule Update Narrative for May 2019 shows a Substantial Completion date of March 3, 2022, compared to the contractual date of August 10, 2020, which represents a further slippage.”

Caltrain, for its part, said it is firm that construction is on schedule for 2021, with trains expected to be running by 2022. That date is also a change — Caltrain’s program plan initially showed the electrification project’s “substantial completion” marked for August 2020, but Caltrain acknowledged in its own project report that this date has slipped to September 2021.  That project report is also not publicly available on Caltrain’s website, a break in common practice with other transit agencies, leading to concern from Caltrain officials. It is a public document.  Instead, the report was provided to the San Francisco Examiner by a source under the condition of anonymity and became the heated subject of discussion at the Caltrain board’s meeting Thursday.

My least favorite part of the piece was the opening teaser line:

Caltrain’s soon-to-come electrified trains may one day whisk commuters from the South Bay to San Francisco with BART-like frequency, easing congestion on freeways and bolstering the local economy.

I'll get into this more later, but suffice it to say the ONLY two ways we will ever see BART-like frequency from Caltrain is if high-speed rail never reaches the Peninsula or if the budget and land-takings go up dramatically to add "passing tracks".  There are some nice graphics from Caltrain-HSR reports that illustrate that.  Once I find them I will share them, but intuitively we know this to be true.  Imagine adding a local bus route around the Indy 500 brickyard track.  But Caltrain is stuck--the money for electrification comes from high-cost rail so they have to button-up and press on.  Here is the new wall in San Mateo at 25th Ave.-- no room for a passing track there.