The Burlingame Voice

Lessons from Stanford: Get a Generator

As Santayana is credited with saying “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”   So let's learn from Stanford's "100% Green energy" experiment and the impact the nearby Emerald Hills fire has had on the campus.  With new construction happening all over Buildingame that must be all-electric because we have a "reach code", Santayana is in play here.  The bottom line is many B'gamers will be reaching for back-up generators.  The Chronicle is chronicling the mess down on the Farm:

In normal times, Stanford powers its campus with 100% renewable energy — a milestone it achieved this year. Most of it is solar power.  But only a small portion of the solar — less than 10%, according to Stanford civil and environmental engineering Professor Mark Jacobson — is on campus, on building roofs. The rest comes from two massive solar plants in Kern and Kings counties.  Because the power is not produced right on campus, Stanford relies on the state power grid to transport the electricity.

Stanford has been able to turn on some power. It’s using a few hundred diesel generators for key services, Jacobson said.

Wow.  I bet every Home Depot in the Bay Area is sold out of Hondas and Generacs.  That has to be really good for the environment, but there's more

Fixing a transmission line is “delicate work,” noted Michael Wara, an energy expert with Stanford’s Woods Institute for the Environment. “The standards are very precise for how things have to be done, so it takes time.”  Wara said he would have been even more concerned had damage to the PG&E substation on the edge of the fire occurred, since substation parts can be hard to replace.

Translation:  If a substation is badly damaged, expect it to be down for weeks to months.  But how will we get the horse back in front of the cart?

Wara said that the era of wildfires shows the importance of new thinking about the grid — especially how to get power to somewhere via multiple routes, and also self-sufficiency, though that can be expensive.  Jacobson said that the prolonged outage shows the need for more batteries to store power — and microgrids that can stay powered using the batteries when the main grid is not functioning.

This week Elon Musk was blunt about Tesla's battery problems as they transition from the 2170 lithium-ion battery cells to the new 4680 cells and different packaging.  That is with billions of dollars per month on the line, so don't expect the less-in-demand microgrid batteries to be fast-tracked through design, manufacture, deployment to utilities and finally energized.  I figure we are on at least a ten-year forced march through unreliable grid performance; if PG&E doesn't go bankrupt first.  But at least the Stanford students got a stipend

“Emergency Funds available! Resident students who have been impacted by the power outage may apply for support,” a tweet from Stanford’s vice provost for graduate education said. “$100 stipends will be provided to help with expenses related to food spoilage and eating out.”

Who will issue the B'gamers' stipends?  Those of us with grandfathered gas ranges and barbeques can cook the meat and seafood before it spoils.  C'mon over.

Worrying About Wildfire (Up the Hill)

Yesterday was the longest day of the year and it was especially long if you lived in the Emerald Hills section of Redwood City or the surrounding parts of Woodside.  In addition to the County text alert, I got a couple of texts from friends who were under evacuation orders that didn't last too long, but according to the DJ piece, the fire was not contained last night:

The seven-alarm Edgewood Fire in the hills of San Mateo County is at 25 acres and was not contained as of Tuesday evening, according to a spokesperson for Cal Fire.  There was one injury to a firefighter and no structures were damaged. A Pacific Gas and Electric substation was threatened and had units on it to ensure fire stayed away from it, Cal Fire CZU Deputy Chief Jonathan Cox said.  Large swaths of San Mateo County were out of power due to a downed PG&E transmission line, the utility said.

I've been worrying about this for sometime as I learn more about woodland management from my experience in Tahoe.  As a member of an HOA in Tahoe, we have put a good amount of time, effort and money into carving out a buffer zone.  Then I drive up Chateau Dr. or Black Mountain Rd in H'borough and I wonder what the Town of H'Borough is doing about all that fuel laying around on the ground.  It's pretty much everywhere you look.  Are we just one lightning strike or foolish act (or crazy arsonist) away from a real problem here "down the hill"?  It sure feels like it.

Download Emerald Hills fire_062122

This is a bit of video from the television coverage of the fire last night.  We will see if the link works.

Plug-in the Numbers on Plug-in Cars

I like finding bits of real insight that spring from real data and some analysis that puts it all in context.  Some other tidbits from the last year are here.  The Gavinor is bound and determined to disallow gas-powered car sales in California in 12 years.  Executive order directs state to require that, by 2035, all new cars and passenger trucks sold in California be zero-emission vehicles.  Twelve years may or may not be a long time for battery technology evolution.  It's physics, chemistry, metallurgy and economics after all.  In the meantime, this letter to the Wall Street Journal should open some eyes in the Gavinor's office

In “The Electric-Vehicle Unicorn Crash” (op-ed, May 20), Allysia Finley mentions that 434,879 EVs were sold in the U.S. last year. This represents a mere 2.88% of the 15.1 million vehicles sold here in 2021.

Global lithium-mine production reached a record high of 100,000 metric tons last year, 65% of which is used in EV-battery construction. (The other 44% is used in lubricants, cellphones, etc). The Electrek news site estimates that the Tesla Model S uses 63 kilograms (138 pounds) of lithium per EV, which means that if Tesla used every available pound of world-wide lithium for Model S battery construction, it could produce only 1,040,000 Model S EVs a year. Granted, the Model S is a top-end product that requires more lithium than smaller EVs, but the point is simple: Neoliberals who want to replace the internal combustion engine-powered car with EVs are living in a fantasy world.

To make matters worse, the U.S. currently has only one large-scale, active lithium mine, in Nevada, with two more proposed mines nearby. But the same kind of environmentally woke folks who demand a move to an all-EV fleet are holding up the opening of those two mines in court.  Unfortunately, the happy talk that defines the modern Democratic Party also prevails in the EV industry.

Russ Andrews

Aspen, Colo.

1.04M cars is about 7% of 15.1M cars.  That's 93% away from 100% for those following at home.  And that uses world-wide production just for cars, never mind Tesla Powerwalls for homes or the giant batteries that may someday bring some stability to our summertime electric grids.  Newsom better hope for some electrifying innovation soon.  Mining stocks are looking better every day. 

It's time for a new Attorney General

I was wrong again.  I thought when the last Attorney General, Becerra, got bumped up to HHS Secretary things would improve.  Similarly, I thought the same when the one before that got bumped up.  But I was wrong.  The Newsom-appointed Rob Bonta is as bad or worse than the last two AGs.  Just this week he decided to sue the US Postal Service for the crime of planning to buy, get this, 165,000 gas-powered vehicles.  I guess he is unaware that even with all of the credits, EVs are an expensive 4% of the market and a high-profile EV truck manufacturer (Rivian) just slipped its delivery schedule so much that its stock is down 70%.  Ford cut the value of its stake in Rivian by $5.4B.  Let's not forget the lithium and cobalt for batteries are expected to be in short (i.e. expensive) supply and mostly come from unfriendly parts of the world.  Is any EV company even planning a design that would work for the USPS?  Wanna bet the new GVs would be way better for the environment than the old ones on the road today?  Does Bonta even care? 

Also this week Bonta decided to investigate Exxon Mobil for misleading the public about the recyclability of plastic.  Wait, I thought the government was the source of the CRV fees that have apparently misled us all.  As soon as China stopped taking our used plastic, the whole model just broke down.  This isn't news as we saw last year here.  And the oil companies are responding by building recycling plants in the U.S.   Don't we want this?  Does Bonta have a clue about what it takes to rebuild the plastic recycling supply chain?  I doubt it.

And it's not like the things an AG is supposed to be doing in the state are going so well.  Harris left the office without putting a dent in the number of known criminals who still have guns but are not being searched out.  Becerra, same thing.  Did I miss the press release that Bonta is on the case and succeeding?  I doubt it.  Is he doing anything to prevent more known criminals from serving short sentences and shooting up Sacramento?  I missed that press conference, too.   It's time for a new Attorney General.  The primary election is on June 7.

Demonize natural gas; pay more for electricity

The headline news today is that PG&E has approval to raise residential rates 9% on March 1st.  Small businesses get to pay 10% more and large businesses get to pay even more bringing the average increase across the grid to 12.69% in "a move to generate revenue as the utility grapples with ballooning global natural gas prices."  The so-called consumer advocate group TURN reminds us that this comes on top of a 9% increase at the beginning of this year.  How did we get here?

Let's see.  First, you get politicians from the White House to the state legislature on down to local city councils to demonize natural gas use.  That introduces a low level of long-term uncertainty into the market.  The Feds then try to burden the industry with illusory costs (until a judge tells them to stop it) and they use ESG metrics to laden producers and investors with more uncertainty.  That reduces funding to oil and gas producers who, in turn, cut capital expenditures even though they have long-lead times for new drilling.  Then you wait for overseas demand to spike due to European weather and Russian saber-rattling.  Voila, natural gas prices bounce off their 20+ year lows and our electricity prices go up for legitmate reasons that even the CPUC buys into.  Meanwhile the European Union puts aside its green ambitions and decides to say OK to more natural gas for themselves.

So pay-up people.

New Year, New Green Reality for 2022

Let's start the New Year off with a bit of news on the climate change front.  2021 was a wild climate year finishing off with 212 inches of snow in December in the Tahoe Basin--breaking a 50 year record.  We may have gotten a modest respite from the megadrought although the press quotes from Water Board officials indicate a wait-and-see position.  It can be difficult to get real insight into what is happening around the world on climate as much of the press filters out "bad news".  The Wall Street Journal often has news that you will not read in the Comicle or our local press.  They did just that last week in a piece titled "Many Climate Ambitions Will End With 2021".    The journalist, Joseph C. Sternberg, had a look around Europe and found a few interesting moves that California officials would benefit from understanding.  Here are a few snippets:

It’s New Year’s resolution season, and don’t be surprised if politicians world-wide settle into the same informal pledge: Talk as little as possible about climate change in 2022.  The biggest, most entertaining and also most telling climb-downs are happening in the U.K.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson in October unveiled an ambitious policy program to get Britain to net-zero carbon-dioxide emissions by 2050.

Sure enough, the backtracks and U-turns began before that document was written. The most controversial component of Mr. Johnson’s net-zero boondoggle concerns an attempt to steer households away from the gas boilers on which 86% of them rely for hot water and central heating.

Mr. Johnson said in October he hopes that by 2035 the government will be able to phase out installation of new natural-gas heating units. That represents a step back from earlier plans to require carbon-efficient heat pumps in new homes as early as 2025, and the extended deadline still faces stiff opposition stemming from the high cost of heat pumps.

Among the smaller reversals, the U.K. Transport Department in November backtracked from a plan to require small businesses with parking lots on their premises to install electric-vehicle charging points. The proposed rules governing other structures such as new housing, residential conversions, and new mixed-use developments are so porous as to resemble a well-aerated Swiss cheese, with cost limitation emerging as the primary concern. This difficulty installing charging stations augurs the collapse, sooner or later, of Mr. Johnson’s announced plan to ban new internal-combustion cars by 2030.

French President Emmanuel Macron faces a campaign for re-election in 2022, and he learned the hard way in 2018 how higher fuel prices can trigger debilitating popular protests.  At Mr. Macron’s behest, the European Commission in Brussels may be on the verge of including both nuclear and natural gas on a list of environmentally friendly energy sources eligible for “green investment” from governments and private investors. 

Even in Germany politicians are starting to change course.  A coal phase-out will happen ideally by 2030—with the newly inserted word “ideally” blunting Green ambitions by marking the whole project as tentative.

We are often asked to emulate our European partners in their efforts, but it appears if we do now then Californians would have to backtrack as well.  Happy 2022.

I enjoy getting input and ideas from readers on the side.  Here's one that came in overnight.

 

Planning for a Rollicking Rollins Rd.

I’m very excited by the impending housing growth in North Burlingame that will end up bringing “thousands of new homes” to the Rollins Rd. industrial section of town.  The amount of planning that went into this decision by state and county officials, the City Council, the Planning Commission and city staff is impressive.  Here are the details:

Water:   I know the decision makers have a grasp on our dire water situation because they said so back in May  calling it “alarming”.  They also know the SFPUC cannot be trusted to keep the Peninsula’s water interests front-of-mind regardless of whatever “contract” we have with them, so the negotiations with the state to gain access to Bayfront land for our new desalinization plant (instead of a park) are to be complemented.  Desalinized drinking water is about ten times as expensive as water agencies buy now due to the energy costs.  Then there is the cost of getting rid of the brine, but the free land access will help the economics.  The new water tank on Rollins will ensure reliable water for the new neighborhood.

Outflow:  In the spirit of “what goes in, must come out”, the city study on sewage treatment capacity at the Bayfront plant will probably find a need for additional capacity, but we can be sure that raising the sewer rates to pay for it will be easy as we just saw this year.  Burlingame is a welcoming community, so higher rates will be fine with the public.

Power:  The decision makers’ extensive negotiations with PG&E to get it to strengthen the Burlingame grid are to be complemented.  Not only will the grid improvements supply the new desalinization plant’s load, but it will also ensure grid stability for the rest of the city.  Generous state and federal funding for new solar panels on the new construction and some existing Rollins Rd. buildings will help; as will a brand new grid-based battery facility.  Whoever got that big grant should get a promotion.  The natural gas pipes should be fine since there won’t be any natural gas allowed.

Schools:  Given the thousands of new homes coming, it was prescient of the city council to snap up a large parcel on Rollins Rd. and sign a long-term, low-cost lease with the Burlingame School District.  This will enable BSD to build a new school serving North Burlingame Eastside students.  The parcel may be large enough to also build a BIS Annex to cut down on car traffic to BIS.  I expect that the next school bond measure to pay for it all will pass easily as Burlingame is a welcoming community.

Traffic:  As we consider the extensive traffic study conducted as part of the General Plan update, it is gratifying to see that the Broadway grade separation project is now fully funded and we are ready to start The Big B'game Dig in 2022.  As today's SF Comicle notes:

The intersection of Caltrain and Broadway in Burlingame has the ignominious distinction of being the street-level train crossing most in need of fixing in the state, based on a calculation that factors in number of accidents, disruptions to local traffic and other overall safety concerns.  The busy crossing serves demand from trains, vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists, a hectic mix that has resulted in 11 car-train collisions in the past five years, a number of near misses and some fatal accidents. It has also caused considerable traffic backups: The crossing gate is currently down about an hour per day, and the city estimates that will rise to nearly three hours per day by 2040.

The project should go fast as most of them do; and be completed in time to help ease the load on Millbrae Ave. and Rollins Rd. for the new North Burlingame residents.  Luckily, the city’s negotiations with Caltrain were also successful in getting the Broadway station to reopen.  That will make a big difference for local traffic through the B'way intersection over the next 10 years.

Of course, Rollins Rd. isn't the only part of town with strong growth so all of these impending improvements will benefit the whole town.  That's why Burlingame is a welcoming community.

I admit I was initially skeptical about a huge new residential section at the north end of town.  It seemed like many of the growing pains would be intractable problems, but with a lot of diligent work everything appears to be on track.  Many people are to be complemented.

EV Charging: Still Slow Uptake at Lot Y

It has been a year since we checked in on the usage of the eight EV charging spaces in Lot Y south of Broadway on Chula Vista.  I use Lot Y often and have noticed some uptick in usage which has been extremely low in the past as noted here.  Last October/November 2020 usage was running a half of a charge per day, per space during Covid limitations.  Things have opened up a lot since then--just look at the traffic in town these days.  So one would expect some uptick in EV charging as well.  Here's the numbers from the city:

                   2020 minutes    2020 sessions          2021 minutes    2021 sessions

October            2650                121                        12,287                366

November         3571                137                        13,386                360

So the spaces are being used 2.8 times as frequently and providing 4.1 times as many minutes of juice.  That tallies to one and a half charging sessions per space per day.  That is still very light usage although I once saw four EVs charging at the same time.  I was at the lot on Wednesday afternoon when the regular spaces were very close to full and the eight EV spaces were empty.

There has been plenty written about the increasing load on the California grid from EVs, but not as much about the environmental effects of all the new batteries for EVs.  NBC News jumped on that last week

A nickel mine stretching nearly 4 square miles scars the forest above farmland (in the Philippines). The mine, Rio Tuba, plays a vital role in satisfying the global demand for a mineral more coveted than ever due in part to the explosion of the electric car industry.  The raw nickel dug out of the ground here ends up in the lithium batteries of plug-in vehicles manufactured by Tesla, Toyota and other automakers, according to an NBC News review of company filings and shipping records.

With the demand for nickel skyrocketing, the Rio Tuba mine is now on the brink of expanding deeper into the rainforest, adding almost 10 square miles to its current footprint. Local environmentalists fear that it will wipe out the forest’s fragile ecosystem and increase toxic runoff into the rivers that flow past the farmland down below, jeopardizing the crops.

I'm sure there are other mining areas seeing the same growth.  There's no free lunch, somewhere, somehow someone pays.  

The CA exodus is real, so why do we need SB 10?

There are plenty of people who foolishly believe we can build our way out of the so-called "housing crisis".  Dense development hasn't caused lower housing costs anywhere in the world--in fact, many of the densest locations are also the costliest.  And when the other quality of life components and job prospects are as good as the Bay Area, one would have to be extra foolish to try to out-build the demand and further diminish the quality of life.  But Sacramento has foisted SB 9 and SB 10 on us anyway.  Most of them couldn't get through Econ 101, but that is where we are at.

The Burlingame City Council will discuss what to do about SB 10 tomorrow night.  The Staff Report is super thin on SB 10:

SB 10. California Senate Bill (SB) 10 allows (but does not require) local agencies to adopt an ordinance to allow up to 10 dwelling units on any parcel if the parcel is within a transit-rich area or urban infill site. (Ed:  pretty much all of B'game).

The General Plan Update has already provided a range of multiunit residential and mixed use land use districts with a wide range of residential densities, and the Zoning Ordinance Update underway will provide refined development standards for the corresponding zoning districts.

Staff requests direction from the City Council on whether to pursue zoning allowed by SB 10.  Whereas SB 9-compliant zoning is required, municipalities may choose to adopt (or not adopt) SB 10-compliant zoning.

And the report claims that neither SB 9 or SB 10 will have any fiscal impact!  It might be time to double-check the thinking on that since residential property taxes never cover the cost of providing city services--never mind the costs to the school district that is pretty much out of real estate.

But let's look a little deeper courtesy of last Sunday's Mercury News piece with the sub-head "In an area noted for its booming economy, stunning weather and natural beauty, a majority feel their quality of life is in decline".  The Silicon Valley Leadership Group and the Bay Area News Group commissioned a survey by Embold Research to dig into this and it's not pretty.

In a foreboding breakthrough, for the first time since the poll began posing the question in 2018 a solid majority -- 56% -- said they expect to leave the Bay Area in the next few years...a similar majority said the region is headed in the wrong direction.  In the survey of 1,610 registered voters, 71% said the Bay Area's quality of life has declined in the last five years.

Two problems topped the list of increased concern being "serious or very serious"?  Drought (+41%) and Water Supply (+32%).  I'm glad to know I'm not alone on this.  The cost of housing was still the highest overall at 92% but only up 6%.  What if even half of the half of people that are considering leaving do so?  Even if it is only 10% that would be significant.   B'game has a huge amount of new housing already approved, in design and "in-the-dirt".  Maybe we should see how that all plays out?  I hope the council's direction to staff on SB 10 is a brisk, clear "forgetaboutit" so they can get back to ensuring our public safety, water supply, small business vitality, economic health and quality of life.

Gas Power: Throwing the Baby out with the Bath Water

The old saying "Don't throw the baby out with the bath water" seems appropriate for the latest climate edict out of Sacramento courtesy of Assemblyman Marc Berman from the "leafy suburb" of Menlo Park.  Newsom signed AB1346 that outlaws the sale (but not the use) of "off-road" gasoline engines by 2024; or later if the California air police deem it necessary.  The Wall Street Journal offers some helpful points to understanding this latest maneuver

As an Assembly bill analysis notes, “for commercial uses, there is very little market for zero-emission equipment as today’s technology is relatively expensive and requires multiple batteries and/or frequent recharging and replacement” and “may be inadequate even if money is no object, particularly when used in rural areas without convenient access to recharging.”  No market? No matter. Sacramento will dictate a new one by banning the old one.

Banning sales of new small-combustion engines in tools “could have a few unintended consequences,” the analysis added. For instance, it could “lead to prolonged use of older, dirtier engines,” and the “purchase of non-compliant engines out of state for use in California.”  Home Depot stores in Tijuana and Reno no doubt will appreciate the sales boost.

Even better is this hidden gem

You won’t read this in other newspapers, but many Democrats who represent working-class communities are starting to worry that the state’s environmental policies are driving up the cost of living for minority communities.  Notably, about one in five Democrats in the Assembly and a third in the Senate from mostly lower- and middle-income districts abstained or voted against the bill.

"Abstaining" is the classic legislative ploy to avoid responsibility.  No one can say you voted against it.  There are plenty of people, including some long time readers of the Voice, who will applaud the move against gas leaf blowers.  I'm ok with that too; except for the $30 million of taxpayer money that is allocated to subsidizing the shift.  The "baby in the bathwater" is the fact that the bill includes gas-powered generators!  Talk about an absolutely idiotic ban.  Generators are flying off the shelves due to unreliable electricity.  Generac, the largest vendor in the U.S., has an enormous backlog -- its company stock is up more than 400% since January 2020.

I don't own a generator.  I've been meaning to buy one for years, but my move to solar that went quite well now has me planning a battery back-up as Phase 2 of the project.  I'm fortunate that I can afford the project with a little planning.  For most people, an $800-1,300 generator with no installation costs is a reasonable choice--or was.