The Burlingame Voice

Green energy: Is wind-power fizzling out?

In a Wall Street Journal article this week titled "Wind-Powered Projects Hit by Rising Costs" we learn that Big Wind is in trouble and backing away from projects.

Some firms have already eaten multimillion-dollar termination fees to pull out of East Coast projects or written down investments because of rising costs, battering clean-energy stocks. Analysts say New York’s attempt to find new price points acceptable to developers, regulators and investors suggests the broader market’s adjustment won’t be easy.  “Does the market have the courage to kind of pay these higher prices for clean energy?” David Hardy, chief executive of energy firm Ørsted Americas, said at a conference in New York last month. 

He added that ratepayers would ultimately be the ones ponying up. “But the question is, like: What’s the alternative?” he said.

If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.  There are alternatives that are cheaper and way more reliable and way more safe for sea life and wild life.  Here are the wind numbers that are rising by the week

The new group of projects comes with a projected strike price—a cost index that helps decide residents’ bills—of $145.07 per megawatt hour of electricity over their yet-to-be-finalized 25-year contracts. According to the state, that is about 28% higher than the older proposals’ average but 13% less than the rate developers collectively requested from regulators.

New York’s new proposals will boost ratepayers’ bills by about 2.7%, or more than $35 a year, for the lifespan of the projects, according to state projections. The expected sum is four times more than what officials estimated when the first round of contracts was struck in 2019.

And then the chickens come home to roost as they always do

Equinor last week told investors it wrote down about $300 million from its New York project, or roughly half of its value. Shares in Ørsted, which has projects off the East Coast, Europe and Taiwan, have plunged nearly 80% since early 2021.  Other developers and suppliers have also taken hits. Shares in Siemens Energy, a key producer of turbines and other equipment, crashed to record lows last week after the company said it was in talks with the German government and banks about guarantees to back long-term projects.  General Electric, meanwhile, said in its earnings results last week that it expects to book about $1 billion in losses from its offshore operations this year and next.

As we await the latest rate increases for PG&E at least California isn't going wind-crazy.  I'm always amazed whenever I drive over the Altamont Pass how many wind turbines are still. 

Solar: My, what big batteries you have

That 50-hour power outage in January that sent me off to buy a generator also motivated me to finish the solar installation I started two years ago.  I did the panels first as it was a big job ("might as well do the roof first") and decided with local Mr. Solar Steve Pariani's input to wait on the batteries.  Two sleepless nights in January drove me to finish the project and Steve has just completed it--again on time and on budget.

Readers asked how much it cost and what is the warranty on the batteries.  The two Enphase batteries and some more associated interconnection devices came to a shade under $30K including the plans, the permit, installation and sign-off.  They also qualify for the federal tax credit ("ITC") of 30%.  The good news is that two years ago Enphase was only offering ten-year warranties, but now I have a 15-year warranty.  Here are the batteries as installed and the new Enphase app screen that comes with the batteries (as opposed to the simpler one for just having panels.)

PG&E refund for storm outage

There are probably a lot of B'gamers who just got a refund check from PG&E to compensate for the storm-driven power outage(s) in January.  I was out for 50 hours in January after I jinxed myself.  You have to laugh though when you get a $25.22 check because it probably cost them more than $25 to cut and mail the check.  Why  wouldn't they just credit it on my bill?  My solar batteries went in last week and I still have the portable generator so I should be all set.  Wait, did I just jinx myself again?

PG&E: Less trimming, shut-offs....and more digging

Continuing my fascination with all things electricity-related, PG&E's announcement that they will substitute quick, tenth-of-second shut-offs when changes in flow occur.  From today's WSJ:

The California utility company PG&E spent about $2.5 billion on a yearslong effort aimed at reducing wildfire risk by cutting or clearing more than a million trees growing alongside power lines.  It now says that work was largely ineffective and is eliminating the program, according to an internal analysis reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and interviews with utility executives.  The strategy shift marks a calculated risk by the utility that new power-line settings will be more effective than the tree-trimming program that was put in place after a series of devastating wildfires. The program, which the company called “enhanced vegetation management,” was meant to supplement routine tree-trimming work required by regulators.  PG&E saw a 68% reduction in ignitions on lines that shut off on contact in 2022, the first year the settings were fully deployed.

Let's hope Hillsborough gets the shut-off capability early, but I'm still not seeing the wisdom or economics of the "bury everything" strategy:

PG&E says the new approach will be both safer and less expensive as it works to permanently reduce wildfire risk by burying 10,000 miles of power lines in the coming years, an ambitious plan expected to cost at least $20 billion. The company is challenged in its ability to raise capital following a complex bankruptcy restructuring and has been working to cut costs in order to fund the work.

What this means for our rates cannot be good.  Aside from screwing higher-income customers and the steady rate increases already announced, digging 10,000 miles of trench, burying lines and removing towers has a lot of hidden complexity.  Ask me how I know.

Electricity "Equity": A Shocking Proposal

We have another "Dr. Zhivago Moment" on our hands according to the Mercury News today-- you know the point in the film where the socialist government drone says "It's more fair this way".  "Fair" might be the most mis-used word of this century so far and it is looking like it can hold onto that title quite easily.  Check this out from the Merc article:

PG&E, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric, the three major California utilities whose services include electricity, have filed a joint proposal with the state Public Utilities Commission that sketches out proposed changes in monthly bills.

Here’s how the fixed charges would work in the PG&E service territory. The numbers are based on a four-person household:

• Households earning less than $28,000 a year would pay a fixed charge of $15 a month on their electric bills.
• Households with annual income from $28,000 to $69,000 would pay $30 a month.
• Households earning from $69,000 to $180,000 would pay $51 a month.
• Those with incomes above $180,000 would pay $92 a month.

“These are not new charges, but a restructuring of the components of providing and delivering power,” PG&E stated in a post in the Currents section of the utility’s website.

Yeah, right.  Funny I don't recall PG&E or "a qualified, independent state agency or third party responsible for verifying customers’ total household incomes" asking for my household income before.  It would probably cost them more to administer the snooping program than it would bring in.

BNN and the City Review Storm "Learnings"

Did you get the 6am wake-up call from Pacifica yesterday?  I wasn't in town, but I hear it rang 3.5 times and was loud.  Another earthquake prep reminder.  As if we don't have enough to worry about with atmospheric rivers queued up like floats in a parade.  Saturday morning, the City and Burlingame Neighborhood Network co-sponsored a meeting for residents to learn (re-learn?) how we handled the last big storms.  I say re-learn because by a show of hands nearly all of the roughly 75 people there had previously participated in a BNN block drill.

The newly promoted city arborist, Rich Holtz, was the star of the show as much of the content and questions revolved around trees and what it takes to get downed or leaning trees removed.  There is often coordination with PG&E to ensure the lines are de-energized.  My question during the Q&A about how city staff (aside from Park & Rec tree staff) interact with PG&E didn't get much of an answer.  It would be good to know who at the city is "in the know" in real time about power outages by virtue of having a clear contact at PG&E and the ability to update residents beyond what's on PGE.com.

The city is on a four-year cycle for inspecting all city trees.  There was a small amount of Blue Gum Euc-bashing, but the SF Comicle provided a timely defense of Eucs the next day here:

In the Bay Area, the trees that most commonly fall are oaks, eucalyptus, cypress and Monterey pines, said consulting arborist Kevin Hostert. That matches information from the Western Tree Failure Database, which collects data from professional tree managers largely from the Bay Area, said principal investigator Larry Costello.

Coast live oaks and Monterey pines are prone to fungal infection and root rot, and certain types of eucalyptus trees have “pretty shallow” roots, Hostert said. But Hostert and Costello emphasized that these species are not necessarily more dangerous — instead, more of them may fall simply because they are relatively common.

There is that Voice principle again:  a numerator without a denominator is useless information.

BPD and BFD were well-represented and added a lot of detail about how many 911 calls came in.  For instance, on March 14, 119 calls came in, mostly in a three-hour period, as the heart of the storm hit B'game.  The fact that faux 911 calls from landlines and burglar alarms mistakenly go off when power is restored was news to me.  And they all have to be answered.

For me, the highpoint of the session from a learning standpoint was the introduction of the Zello phone app and network by Rik Kasuga of BNN.  Zello adds walkie-talkie capabilities to your cell phone allowing for group calls and direct person-to-person contact.  Assuming the cell networks are up, this can be an effect way for BNN members to communicate in an emergency.  More on that later as I get into it.

The official recap is here and here are the presenters in the Rec Center on a beautiful Saturday morning in B'game talking about a rough couple of days.

 

Time to Disband the Air Quality Board

Some letter writer to the WSJ gets credit for this quip:  "The two things government does best are nothing and overreact".  He was writing about the Silicon Valley Bank bailout, but it fits perfectly with the gas-heater-haters at the Bay Area Air Quality Management District.  I think it's time we disbanded the BAAQMD, fired its staff (who aren't working in the public interest), and send the city council people on the Board back to their cities to Do The Job They Were Elected To Do; which is to make good local decisions.

The back story is a bunch of elected officials, who collectively probably couldn't pass a college-level Physics test, have decided that we shall not have gas water heaters or gas furnaces.  No soup for you even if your current set-up has been in existence for decades, works flawlessly during blackouts and costs way less than the alternative.  The Chronicle attempted to quantify the cost of complying:

The new regulations prohibit the sale or installation of water heaters and furnaces that emit nitrogen oxides after 2027 and 2029, respectively.  Electric water heaters and heat pumps are generally more expensive than their gas counterparts. People in older houses may face additional costs such as electrical panel upgrades, ductwork, rewiring or permits, though there are thousands of dollars of rebates and tax credits available at the federal, state and local levels to offset some of the cost differential. 

The cost of installing a heat pump can vary widely, from $7,000 to more than $20,000, according to various studies and data collected from completed projects. Costs for electric water heaters can range from $2,000 to $7,000. Staff from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, the agency that adopted the zero nitrogen oxides regulations, presented average compliance costs at its approval hearing last week: $8,030 for a heat pump and $2,820 for an electric water heater. 

The estimates come from a 2021 study published by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which collected total cost data from 1,739 projects in 15 states, including California, adjusted to the 2019 dollar.   The same study also published average installation costs for gas appliances: $5,096 for a gas furnace and $1,972 for a gas water heater.   Some people and groups have disputed these numbers from their own experience or by pointing to regional data that show much higher installation costs for heat pumps and electric water heaters.

They had California-specific costs (still not Bay Area-specific costs), but chose not to present them at the hearing before the vote--not that it would have mattered:

As part of the approval process, BAAQMD generated a socioeconomic impact analysis that included higher cost estimates from a 2019 Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) study specifically looking at California: between $7,000 to $20,000 of all-in costs for a heat pump depending on the type, and from $3,000 to $4,700 for a heat pump water heater.

The E3 study assumed that pre-1978 homes would need to upgrade to a panel of 200 amps when switching to both a heat pump and water heater, and estimated this would cost $4,256 for single-family homes and $2,744 for low-rise multifamily homes.

And there are higher costs from another data source and one person who highlights yet another unaccounted-for cost--TAXES:

Out of 9,895 heat pumps installed with Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost before incentives was $18,842, with an average total incentive of $3,433. For the 1,334 heat pump water heaters that received Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost was $7,054, with an average total incentive of $3,617.

The Tech CLEAN data tracks most closely to Redwood City resident Kent Holubar’s experience installing a heat pump last summer. Installation of Holubar’s Mitsubishi heat pump cost $17,875, with another $1,865 required for permits, bringing the total cost to $19,740, Holubar shared with The Chronicle.

Holubar had wanted to make the upgrade for a while and was able to do so with part of his mother’s estate after she passed away. But after the installation, Holubar received an annoying surprise: Holubar’s 1953 home was assessed at $10,000 more than it was before he installed the heat pump because of its air conditioning properties — adding extra property taxes every year, Holubar said.

Also lost in the ozone of government cost studies are the things I mentioned in my letter to the B'game city council and in the comments on the prior Natural Gas: Follow the Science? post.  Things like removing the old pipes and vents, drywall repair and paint, roof repairs to fill the old holes, pouring concrete pads for the new equipment--the list goes on and on.  BUT the big cost that none of these studies capture is the time and effort of the homeowner.  It will likely be enormous and growing worse as the deadlines loom and pass.  No more calling the water heater guy and answering one question:  Do you want a 40 gallon or 50 gallon unit?  Soon it will be "A Project" with all of the typical project management expenses in time, effort and money.   Better to disband the Air Quality Board and leave people to transition if and when they want.

91% of 390 Trees is a Lot of Trees

Last night's big confab with Caltrans and city officials regarding the El Camino Real renewal project was eye-opening for a lot of people.  Probably not regular Voice readers since we have discussed it in 2021 here and here.  The most eye-opening statement made last night was during the Q&A when Caltrans was asked how many of the giant Eucs were scheduled to be cut down.  The answer was "about 9% will remain".  There are about 390 of the historic ones in the 3-mile stretch.

The other way to phrase that is 91% of 390 Eucs will be taken out.  That's 355 giant trees.  Buried in the details of compacted soil, broken sidewalks, retaining walls, sight triangles, sulfur fungus, poor trimming around the power lines, etc is the lead:  355 eucalyptus trees are history--well, we thought they were historic since the grove is listed on the National Register of Historic Places, but really they're just history.  There will be 35 survivors who will stand in testament to their fallen brethren and to the ECR that once was.

There were a number of long-time B'gamers there and one that I had not seen in at least 6 or 7 years came over after the Q&A and asked the Big Questions.  He asked "how many people know about this?  And what are they gonna do when they find out?"  I've been asking myself the same question.  Another knowledgeable long-time local has asked 30 people if they are aware of the tree situation over the last few days.  General awareness is close to nil. 

This project has been in the works for years.  Maybe Caltrans and the city hasn't had a good idea of how many trees would have to go, but they do now.  In the interest of transparency, shouldn't the city send out the short, to-the-point notice that this is coming?  You bet.  Then wait for the outrage to arrive.

I'll double back with more on the proceedings soon.  There were numerous displays and a tabletop exercise looking at the Hillside and Bayswater intersections with measurements, planning tools and tree options.  In the meantime, here is Mayor Brownrigg introducing the B'gamers who are on the ECR task force with some Caltrans people seated behind.

Natural Gas: Follow the science?

We must take note of the national kerfuffle about gas stoves that has been boiling over this week.  It's totally pertinent to B'game because our last city council bought into the climate hype and instituted a "reach code" such that new construction can't have any natural gas--not just stoves, but water heaters, furnaces, and barbeques.  No gas for you!  Now the Feds are making similar noises and then backtracking as the WSJ notes

A Biden appointee on the Consumer Product Safety Commission explicitly threatened to ban gas stoves based on dubious evidence of public-health harm. “This is a hidden hazard,” said commissioner Richard Trumka Jr. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”  After withering public criticism, including by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, the CPSC Chairman denied any plan to ban, and the White House said President Biden also doesn’t want to ban gas stoves. But that’s cold comfort given that the climate left does want to ban them, and progressive cities and states are doing it.

One might ask what is the science behind gas phobia?  Well, today the SF Chronicle actually let a letter to the editor slip through that is pretty clear on the science:

There has lately been a lot of concern about gas ranges and how they can harm indoor air quality, but some of this is too fast and too furious.  As an active researcher in indoor air quality, there can be no doubt that gas cooking produces nitrogen dioxide and that this is bad for respiratory health but the level of concern is far higher than the data show the situation actually warrants. 

Cooking is likely the most polluting thing done in homes. It produces lots of contaminants, regardless of the heat source. Switching to electric may not make the sum total significantly better.  The solution that works regardless of the type of cooking is using your range hood when cooking. Range hoods have been required in California for a long time. Studies have not shown that there would be any significant difference in net harm between gas and electric cooking if you actually use range hoods when cooking.

Max Sherman, retired senior scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

I'll bet if you were one of the 2.4 million PG&E customers that lost power over the last two weeks you were thankful you had a gas stove and some matches even if your range hood or downdraft vent didn't work.  Open a window and enjoy a cup of tea or a bowl of soup.

PG&E: Holding the line so far

I really hope that I am not jinxing things by posting this a couple days before the last of this round of storms plays out.  I have four sump pumps going so I am really hoping....

So far PG&E in south B'game has been solid.  If you told me two weeks ago that we would get the weather and wind we got and the power would stay on the whole time, I would have bet you a C-note that it would not.  In my neighborhood, I would have lost that bet.  This little squib in today's Chron reminded mm how lucky we have been:

All-Pro tight end George Kittle tweeted Thursday night that he had been without power “going on 4 days” — making him one of tens of thousands of Californians still without power due to the recent storms.  “A lil help would be appreciated thanks. Just trying to prepare for something this weekend,” Kittle tweeted at Pacific Gas & Electric Co., alluding to Saturday’s game.

PG&E responded gamely but unspecifically, saying: “We’ve got our offense, defense and special teams on this, George! We’ve got the power back for 2.4M people through the past two weeks’ storms, and we’re gonna get you (and everyone else still out) back as soon as we can!”

The bolded bit is mine.  We had a big tree go down and take out some wires right near St. Paul's Church and I'm sure PG&E had to hustle.  But so far, they are pulling it off.  That correlates with a couple of other good experiences I have had with PG&E over the last year.  Blown transformer, frayed drop wire, etc all fixed in a reasonable amount of time.  EssEff may want to buy PG&E out of their distribution network in the city and run it themselves--which is just hilarious.  Not me, not in B'game.  If you have ever had a job in "operations" where things have to get done regardless of the circumstances, I think you will agree.

Fingers still crossed.

Update:  Jan 19.   Last night's storm which seemed to deliver more rain than predicted appears to be the last one for awhile.  Here's a photo to commemorate the deluge on the Ave.