The Burlingame Voice

California exodus accelerates in 2022

A year ago, the exodus from our lovely state was news as we discussed here.  The trend has accelerated which should accelerate the review of the state's housing requirement numbers as noted here.  The odd thing about the faulty RHNA numbers is that no one wants to talk about them.  I have mentioned it to several electeds and a watchdog news organization and all I get is crickets.  As a city, try to ignore them and Rob Bonta will be all in your face, but question them and he's silent.  You would think when a state auditor says this about the calculations, someone would go "hold on":

“Overall, our audit determined that HCD does not ensure that its needs assessments are accurate and adequately supported. …This insufficient oversight and lack of support for its considerations risks eroding public confidence that HCD is informing local governments of the appropriate amount of housing they will need.”

If someone is saying "hold on" they are doing it quietly behind closed doors.  But this is what is occurring in California out in the open from the WSJ:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom boasted this week that his state is poised to become the world’s fourth largest economy. Perhaps, thanks to Germany’s economic struggles, but a new Hoover Institution report documents an accelerating business flight from the Golden State.

The report by Hoover senior fellow Lee Ohanian and Spectrum Location Solutions President Joseph Vranich finds that 352 companies moved their headquarters from California between 2018 and 2021. Twice as many businesses left last year (153) than in 2020 and 2019 and three times as many as in 2018. The top destinations: Texas (132), Tennessee (31), Nevada (25), Florida (24) and Arizona (21).

California’s high top marginal income-tax rate (13.3%) punishes small pass-through businesses that pay income taxes at the individual rate as well as managers in C-suites. Manufacturers get slammed by high electricity costs from the state’s climate policies. The Mercatus Center ranks California as the most highly regulated state in the U.S.

Human capital is also becoming more scarce. The report notes that California’s net out-migration to other states increased to 277,000 in 2021 from 34,000 in 2012. Over the last 10 years, California has lost 1.625 million residents to other states—more than the population of Philadelphia. Foreign migration has compensated, but less so in recent years.

Tally that up with the layoffs and hiring slowdowns being reported at the major firms in the Bay Area, and you could say my "confidence is eroded" in the RHNA numbers that drive all of the residential building being jammed down our throats.  And the electoral response?  Raise the top marginal tax rate some more (Prop. 30) under the guise of fighting wildfires and encouraging more electric cars--like we don't already have enough subsidies and browbeating for EVs. 

"Mill housing" for B'game teachers?

Bad ideas tend to spread here in the Bay Area especially when the time horizon for revealing the flaws is years away.  "Mill housing" was a common approach to subsidizing employees' rents especially back in Massachusetts (my home state) in the 1800's.  Now we have the idea that the B'game School District can and should build subsidized housing for teachers.  A sample of 31% of BSD employees found plenty of interest in subsidized housing.  And why not?  You can find lots of support for subsidized anything when you are using OPM.  That doesn't make it a good idea.  The Daily Journal piece doesn't get to any of the flaws--just the cheerleading:

Workforce housing could be one of Burlingame School District’s next big projects but only if community members show support for financially backing the initiative, school board trustees agreed during a meeting last week.

Three sites were identified as being potentially feasible for housing, the 0.3-acre district office site at 1825 Trousdale Drive, a 2.8-acre lot of land between Burlingame Intermediate School and Franklin Elementary and a 4.5-acre undeveloped hillside above Hoover Elementary.  But after further review, only the first two would be developable, Jennings said, noting that the hillside plot is greatly sloped and has access constraints.  (Ed:  that's an understatement). Despite the substantial lot size differences between the Trousdale and BIS sites, Jennings said both could only welcome a 22-unit project.

At the Trousdale site, Jennings said units would be incorporated into a six-story apartment building with underground parking. Initial estimates show the development could cost the district more than $17.8 million.  Alternatively, about $15 million would be needed to develop 12 townhomes and a two-floor flat stacked apartment building with 10 units at the BIS housing site. That configuration would maximize the land use while adhering to single-family zoning policies in the residential neighborhood.

Funny how endangered the concept of "single-family zoning" has become in such a short time.  You can click through to the whole article if you want to read about the various funding options--none of which are realistic.  Instead, let's ask a few basic questions.  Why isn't the giant subsidized housing project wrapped in black netting on Park Rd. enough to handle the less-tenured teachers?  I thought that was the motivation.  Or we could take the view of this resident (whom I don't know) in a letter to the DJ:

Instead, let’s focus on ensuring district employees are paid enough to live here (if they choose) at market rate. They deserve the autonomy to make their own living choices. Let’s pay them a much better rate and stay out of the housing business.

Esther Kim,  Burlingame

Good idea especially with the Inflation Production Act about to kick in and construction and/or financing costs skyrocketing.  The Fed will make those million-dollar estimates look small soon.  Does the District really want to get into the prevailing wage debate?  Are they remotely capable of managing this without more high-priced consultants on board?  Heck, the election campaign to raise the funding probably costs more than it takes to assist a lot of teachers for a couple of years.  The last time I looked at the data (in 2020) it wasn't clear that staff turnover was much worse than it's been for the prior decade.

Lastly, what new wrinkles would school-subsidized housing add to school administration?  Who are the lucky 22?  If you remove an underperforming teacher, are you also making them homeless?  Who's got the huevos to do that?  Who is doing income verification?  Does a significant other's income count?  What about summer income?  Do we think all teachers sit by the pool all summer?  Is it ever smart to do what EssEff does?  I doubt it.  How about working on student achievement and figuring out where we will put all the new students in town while staying out of the housing business. 

Bayfront: And the beat goes on, and the beat goes on

I didn't have the heart to post on the 1.5 million square foot development on Old Bayshore that is moving ahead.  I think it's centered at the old Gulliver's location.  That's a lot of development pressure on our infrastructure and traffic, but it's not alone.  Here is the Red Roof Inn redevelopment being discussed in the DJ

A proposed bioscience building on the Burlingame Bayfront can be reduced in height from 226 feet, which would be the tallest in the city, but by how much and when is still being decided, the developer told the Planning Commission.

The building is being proposed at the site of the current Red Roof Inn, at 777 Airport Blvd., and commissioners previously had issues with not only its height, but its massing and public amenities.  “Again, we are trading this height limit for public benefit,” Michael Gaul, chair of the Planning Commission, said.

The developing architect, M. Arthur Gensler & Associates Inc. responded to the commission’s height concerns with a 32-foot reduction if their building is approved by January 2023 for a concrete structure, totaling its height to 194 feet. If the developers do not get it approved by this January they will revert to a steel structured building, thus only reducing the building by 14 feet. It would then reach 212 feet making it the second tallest building on the Bayfront by a foot.

This one is also near the wastewater plant and will contribute mightily.  It will be all-electric so expect the grid to be impacted.  And of course, I would be remiss if I did not mention our water situation as shown in the latest Urban Water Management Plan.  What could go wrong?

Historic Houses: Heartwarming visits happen

There are a lot of great aspects to owning an historic house--even if Burlingame is notoriously difficult to get the actual designation.  Maybe difficult is too soft a word--how about impossible unless it's the Avenue train station or the Mercy main building.  You do get to feel virtuous that you didn't let some scraper send dozens of tons of wood, shingles, pipe, wire, porcelain, brick and concrete to the dump.  Someone ought to force the tear-it-down-and-build-big YIMBY's to hand carry a few tons of that up to the Skyline landfill.

But faux "climate justice" aside, every once in a while, someone comes knocking on your door with a bit of a sheepish look on their face and says "I hate to bother you but my fill-in-the-ancestor used to live here.  I'm so happy it's still here and that you are home--can I come in?"  Now unless you know who owned your house over the years, this could be disconcerting or worse.  So if you have an old B'game house, get a house history from the Historical Society or go through the old city directories yourself and make a list.

We've done both for our 112 year-old bungalow, so when the doorbell rang this afternoon and the nice, older lady gave her great aunt's name, we knew she was legit.  The great aunt and uncle were the original owners, and we also know that from seeing the last name scrawled on some old wall timbers just as written by some long-forgotten lumber store.  What a treat.  She has some photos that go back to those days and show the house.  I cannot wait to get copies.  I'll update the post when I get them.

P.S. This is not the first time this has happened.  When you have 112 years of history, there are more than a few descendants happy to revisit their youths.

I got this photo of our house circa 1911-12 from the dear lady described above.  This is just a photo snapshot--a better scan will come later.  It's awesome to see how the house has changed so little after all these years.  What has changed is the open space to the left.  That four square bungalow was on El Camino--six or seven lots away-- and was torn down about 22 years ago.  Everybody looks happy to be in Burlingame!

B'game better than "Climate best by government test"

If you grew up with oppressive summer heat and humidity like I did, you really appreciate how nice the weather is in B'game.  Yesterday was a perfect example.  It was on the verge of being uncomfortably hot and a bit humid here.  High temperature was 88.  But down in Redwood City, with its motto "Climate best by government test", their temperature topped out at 100 degrees.  Yuck.

And the Chronicle noted "Livermore recorded 102 degrees Tuesday afternoon, according the National Weather Service. Fairfield reached 105 degrees, and Vacaville hit 102 degrees."  Double yuck.  I haven't seen any reports of brownouts yesterday, but we aren't done yet.  When the "Burlingame For All" people reappear, remember why people pay extra to live here and why it's worth it.

It is also time for the annual summer check-up on my ancient pear tree.  The yield goes back and forth year-to-year like last year.   The year before was a low yield too, but we had good harvests the two prior years.  This year I count eight, but they are already big and beautiful, so now we try to outwit the squirrels by letting them ripen, but not too much.

Where have all the good stuff (and people) gone?

It all started with a column by John Horgan that pulled at my heart strings

Steve Squires is preparing to leave town. He has to make a clean break by the end of the month on orders from his landlord. The San Mateo rental property he utilizes east of the Caltrain rail line is scheduled for redevelopment.  Squires, a very sharp and spry 84, has been a quiet commercial fixture at the same location on South Claremont Street in San Mateo since 1977 when Jimmy Carter moved into the White House.

Squires’ chosen profession: Repairing, restoring, rebuilding, trading and selling antique slot machines. It’s a unique specialty.  A visit to his cluttered, cramped, 3,000-square-foot shop last week was instructional. The Squires & Corrie establishment is literally filled floor to ceiling with slot machines, hundreds of thousands of parts and an impressive array of tools and machines. 

That tribute was followed the next week by an SF Chronicle article about the impending demise of Great America now that the property has been sold.  I knew the journalist, Peter Hartlaub, had grown up in B'game and he verified it in the article.   But what really caught my attention was his Dead Pool list of other attractions

My first trips to Great America as a Burlingame resident were in elementary school, not long after it opened in 1976. The trifecta of roller coasters — Willard’s Whizzer, Tidal Wave and Turn of the Century — worked as sort of a progression ladder for conquering my young fears.  Soon, Great America will be just another memory from a very distant time. When you grow up in the place that started a technology revolution, there’s not a lot of square footage left for fun.

Will I be sad to see it go? Sure. Did I expect to take my grandchildren there? Definitely not.

Those of us who grew up on the Peninsula and in the South Bay are used to the disappointment. We lost Marine World Africa U.S.A., Frontier Village, Castle Golf & Games, the Circle Star Theatre and almost every local roller rink and cool old movie theater in the area. How the Winchester Mystery House is still operating is anyone’s guess.

I wasn't alone as a letter writer to the DJ noted

With the announcement that Great America has been sold, and eventually bulldozed, another one bites the dust. Heck Santa’s Village, Frontier Village, and of course Marine World are just memories (albeit fond) for many of us. Malibu Grand Prix, pee-wee golf. The list goes on. Lets not mention the drive in in Burlingame, or South San Francisco or ... The “Block 21” project in San Mateo is moving forward. The 11 current parcels and their tenants have to look elsewhere and relocate. I know Steve from Squires Slot machine is moving to Stockton. I believe he, as well as Las Palomas, Wing Fat, The head shop and Jaybirds, have been local for 40 plus years. So Long.

In today's paper we see all of the residents in Oyster Cove Marina are either already out, or are scrambling to find an affordable place to move. I worry about my grandkids and what sort of fond memories and activities they will have.  And please do not mention our water shortage or inability to increase our cities infrastructures i.e. more police and fire. Perhaps I’m just gloom and doom but maybe someone will build a bowling alley.

Peter C. Carey

San Bruno

In a truly crazy twist of fate, my decade-long search for a vintage slot machine yielded results last Saturday right here in B'game!  It is a 100 year old machine and it needed repair, so I knew I needed to get to Steve Squires ASAP.  Hauling the gorgeous hunk of machinery out to Stockton and then going back to pick it up months later wasn't appealing.  I stopped in, got a 10 minute tutorial on what might be the issue, viewed a half-dozen YouTube videos as an aid to Steve's description, but couldn't be sure.  Another visit brought Steve's offer to "just bring it in, I can show you in a couple minutes".  This from the guy who has to pack up 45 years of stuff and move in a couple weeks!  I was back in a flash and indeed he fixed it in short order after closing time.  The best part of all was I got to watch him do it.  We chatted about the lack of opportunity for kids to learn useful manual skills, the difficulty in finding staff with said skills, and the carving out of small businesses--especially in San Mateo where condos and offices are treated like saviors.

I started thinking of all the other things that are either gone or going.  Remember when there were three antique stores in B'game and several big ones in San Mateo.  Some old timers probably remember more.  Remember when you had choices on where you could get furniture stripped or an appliance repaired?  Independent gas stations and repair shops?  Markets not named Safeway?

Like Mr. Carey I worry about how sterile life with nothing but condos, offices and restaurants will be like here.  How many trips to Stockton will we be making to find real skills (with the tools and parts) like Steve Squires has?  What a gem---he gets an honorary Best of Burlingame designation.

Local real estate update - The Ups & Downs

Two tidbits of B'game real estate news came in today from Zumper and the County assessor's office.  First the Zumper rental update shows B'game in the middle of the pack at $2,300 for a one-bedroom--up 1.82% year-over-year.  Two-bedrooms were a bit of a surprise with average rent off 11.6% at $2,830.  That's the only noticeable decline of all 20 cities surveyed.  Not sure what is going on, but the wave of For Rent signs on El Camino has subsided a bit yet there are still many available.  It's a good thing we don't have rent control.

On the assessed property value side, the DJ is reporting

San Mateo County’s property assessment roll increased year over year by $22.2 billion, or 8.34%, to a record high of over $288 billion in assessed value, San Mateo County Assessor Mark Church announced Tuesday.  San Carlos had an increase of 12.64%, South San Francisco was up 12.53%, Burlingame saw a hike of 10.77%, Millbrae increased 9.43% and East Palo Alto was up 9.29%.

The property tax revenue generated is approximately 1% of the annual property assessment roll and this year will increase to $2.88 billion. Approximately 45% of the revenue will go to schools within the county, 25% to the county, 18% to cities, 10% to special districts and 2% to former redevelopment agencies.

One factor in the growth of the San Mateo County secured roll is new commercial development. In all, 64.6 million square feet of new construction are expected to be completed in the county over the next six to eight years. A total of 9.12 million square feet are under construction, 13.9 million square feet have planning approval, and 41.6 million square feet are under review. Approximately 17 million square feet of new construction have been completed in the last five years, according to the Assessor’s Office.

That puts numbers to our collective amnesia about the drought.  And who knows, a lot of this new real estate may be underwater as John Horgan notes in his column:

According to Dave Pine, chair of the OneShoreline Board of Directors and a member of the county’s Board of Supervisors, projects to counter climate change along the shore could take decades to finish.  And, even then, they might not be enough to ward off the worst aspects of what could be coming. “This will take generations,” he predicted.  To that end, OneShoreline and the county are examining the need for an ultralong-term parcel tax to help to finance the myriad construction efforts under discussion.

You knew where that was headed, right?

The "Build our way to affordability" Fantasy

The City makes certain announcements on NextDoor and then responds to some of the comments people add.  I don't know who writes the responses or how they are vetted by other City staff or even if they are vetted.  It's probably time to find out though.  In response to the announcement about Stage 2 water restrictions that we noted here, the comments were very pointed.  People jabbed at overdevelopment leading to crazy traffic, water restrictions and a lack of respect for the people who "worked our nails to the bone" to afford to live here.  The official city response?

These are good points. Our city is in a state with cyclical droughts so once one drought cycle ends the next one is just around the corner. At the same time, California has a housing shortage and state laws require local governments to adequately plan to meet existing and projected housing needs. If housing development were to stop, not only would this be against state mandates, but it would make our city unaffordable in the long-term. We have heard from residents and businesses that they are concerned about their family members, co-workers, and neighbors who can no longer afford to live in the community. We also hear that local businesses, schools, and service providers are struggling to hire and retain people. Building more affordable housing is a solution to these challenges that may be affecting your neighbor down the street. Additionally, while our population has increased steadily our water consumption is lower now than it was ten years ago which shows that conservation and innovations in water efficiency works. For the data, see our 2020 Urban Water Management Plan available at www.burlingame.org/water.

That answer feels tone-deaf to me.  First, it's non-responsive to the water question and raised the additional issue of how much more water we can squeeze from the stone after what has already been done in the last ten years.  The Law of Diminishing Returns is in play and there are consequences to the flora and fauna in town.  Second, the state mandates that drive the building craze have not been vetted properly according to the state auditor or tested in court.  But most disturbing is this fantasy that we can outbuild the global demand for living in the Bay Area, on the mid-Peninsula and especially in Burlingame!  It's a dangerous fantasy and the disregard for the quality of life for those who are already here after "working their nails to the bone" is palpable.  Has the City heard from those residents and businesses as well?

B'gamers' Incomes up 34.3%

I love statistics and I love them even more when they are stack ranked.  So the Sunday Comicle article titled "Here’s where median household incomes increased the most in the Bay Area during the last decade" drew me in immediately as I wondered how they came up with these statistics and where B'game landed.  The answer to the first question is

The data set comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s five-year American Community Surveys for 2015 and 2020, and included places in the Bay Area with at least 20,000 residents.

That is interesting because I was selected this time around to fill out the full "ACS" as part of the census.  It was a chore due to its length, but as I recall it used pretty wide ranges to gauge income.  So averaging them all together across any given town and reporting it down to tenths of a percent seems a bit overly precise.  It's not like the IRS came up with the number.  But wait, there's more.  Burlingame's 34.3% increase over the last five years came in eighth and landed just below EssEff, but

San Francisco’s median household pay increase fell short of East Palo Alto’s increase of 47%, partly driven by the historically economically disadvantaged city’s proximity to the Meta, formerly Facebook, headquarters (Ed:  Hey, we got one of those too). That increase was more than any other place in the Bay Area during the last decade despite the city’s population barely increasing, as median incomes soared from the $56,000 range to more than $80,000 annually.

“It’s gentrification,” said Stephen Levy, director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. As Meta and other tech companies expanded their sprawling campuses on the peninsula and in the South Bay, “The people who lived (in East Palo Alto) who had been relatively poor got a chance to sell their homes for a whole lot of money” to people who could afford them, he said, driving up income levels.

Is Levy saying "gentrification" isn't the bad word some people claim it to be?  Sounds like it.  More caveats came from Sonoma State econ professor Robert Eyler who said

where he lives in Petaluma, which was third from the bottom of the entire list of the list in terms of income growth, has both a somewhat transitory population and an already-high median income for the Bay Area, possibly leaving it with less room to grow.

So describing the growth rate without knowing the baseline numbers from 2015 only tells half the story--or less.  You will probably hear our 34.3% number bandied about for better or worse, so now you have "the rest of the story".

North End tsunami still coming hard and fast

We noted that a Density Tsunami Approaches eighteen months ago here.  One of the elements was the old Peninsula Museum of Art space at 1766 ECR on the north end.  The original, approved plan fell through and a new developer is back with an eight-story all residential proposal that is getting positive vibrations from the Planning Commission according to the Daily Journal piece:

A proposed eight-story north Burlingame apartment building with 311 units received a mostly positive review from the city’s Planning Commission this week, advancing the plans to replace a vacant building at 1766 El Camino Real.  The project would include 37 studio units, 137 one-bedroom units, 120 two-bedroom units and 17 three-bedroom units.  The (22) affordable units would be provided in exchange for the building’s density exceeding that otherwise allowed by the city, per the state’s density bonus law. The law in this case allows the developer to add 72 units on top of the maximum allowed by local zoning.

That seems like a deal.  I'll do the math here.  That mixture equals 465 bedrooms and a bunch of baths.  Then we read

The 504,000-square-foot project would occupy a 1.7-acre parcel, with a partially below ground two-story parking garage providing 319 spots.

Just by chance I was talking to a neighbor of the Summerhill development now known as the Anson Apartments on Carolan who recalled how the neighbors were told there would be no overflow parking problems.  Well, that hasn't played out too well.  The single-family neighborhood around Toyon, Linden, Azalea, etc is apparently learning differently to their distress.

But it's not just parking.  One wonders if the parents and future parents of kids at Franklin school are paying attention?  Is BSD paying attention to this and all the other projects moving forward in Buildingame?  Does anyone know of a portable classroom company I can buy stock in?  Let's all keep these hulking monsters in mind when we are told to skip a few showers and stop watering our lawns.  I choose not to participate in the Collective Amnesia.  Here's a rendering of the proposed building that some seem to think is Eichler-esque.