It's best to take the long view when watching the economic dynamics of the Bay Area. Point in time measures can't tell the whole story but do provide some sense of the state of things. $12 billion dollar state budget deficit? Check. Transit "fiscal cliff" that sends politicians running for more taxes? Check. Massive Bay Area employers backing off of paying for huge residential housing projects? Check. Employment down? Check as the Merc is reporting today:
The Bay Area lost 14,700 total nonfarm payroll jobs in all categories over the first four months of 2025. Over the same time, California lost 32,300 total payroll jobs, official reports from the state Employment Development Department show.
“There is little doubt that federal government job losses will be an important contributor to the labor market malaise that already appears to be falling over the Bay Area,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets. In sharp contrast, state and local government agencies have increased hiring, but that may soon change.
Let's hope so. The Merc doesn't provide the denominator to the fraction, i.e. how many nonfarm jobs are there? But a $12 billion deficit is not a chump-change.
Job losses within the federal government could become far worse in the months ahead, some experts warn. “These numbers are the tip of the iceberg,” Levy said. “The majority of federal job cuts are not reflected in the April data.”
A $2.4 trillion-dollar federal deficit ain't chump-change either so I take issue with the characterization of federal RIFs becoming "far worse". Right sizing government and bringing some sanity to the Bay Area jobs-housing ratio that might stop the "Wienerization" of the suburbs is to be encouraged. Want to stop the $inkhole sucking taxpayer cash that is the high-cost rail project? It's only claim to fame so far is that it "creates" a lot of new jobs. I'm sure we could put a few to work on the Broadway grade separation for a tiny fraction of what is being wasted in the Central Valley. Don't hold your breath.
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