The Burlingame Voice

Papan vs. Beach: Pining for a Supe Seat

News reporters like to report on campaign donations and prominent donors.  It's pretty easy to do given the required filings and it's a lot easier than digging into the issues a couple of layers and comparing candidate responses.  That is especially true when we are early in the race.  Emily Mibach at the Daily Post did just that with the race to replace Dave Pine's seat as a SM County Supervisor representing the district from San Bruno south to B'game.  It's funny in a way since you can only find the Post in about five places in B'game and nowhere north of here.  But I applaud her doing her homework.

The headline is that for the first six months of the year, Emily Beach outraised Gina Papan by about $50,000.  Reporters often overlook what happened prior to the current reporting period (ask me how I know) and where other monies might come from like supportive PAC money.  Often times the donors are more important than the donation amounts.  As the Post piece points out, Papan is drawing from SF and San Mateo County while Beach has a wider small donor network and draws from further south.

A point-in-time difference of $50K isn't really meaningful.  Both candidates will be able to raise what they need to run a visible campaign.  What voters will be looking for is clear positions about undoing some of the harm the last Board did--overtly and by omission.  Telling the Sheriff's Department it cannot cooperate with ICE to deport convicted rapists and child molesters would be a good start.  Where do they stand on things like the La Quinta Inn purchase in Millbrae or, more generally, respecting neighborhood rights?  What ideas do they have to keep the SB9 vultures at bay?  Aside from raising tolls and fees, what is their plan to fix the infrastructure in the County?  Who understands County finances and can suggest how to do more with less?  And which one will leave our gas appliances alone?  That's what I'll be looking for.

Fighting with firefighters

As one of the two or three most critical public services in town, the Fire Department merits our attention when things aren't going well--or at least don't appear to be going well--internally.  The Daily Journal above-the-fold headline 'No confidence' in Central County Fire Chief Bruce Barron certainly caught my eye.  I had been thinking about the Fire Department before this piece since there was an earlier piece about the condition of several stations and the admin building on Rollins Rd.  If you recall my fantasy post about keeping the horses in front of the carts regarding East side development of "thousands of new homes" here, I meant to include the idea of a new fire station somewhere on that side of the railroad tracks in the fantasy.  The DJ noted a report about the need a couple weeks ago

A consultant for the Central County Fire Department Chief wants to reopen station 36 on the eastside of Burlingame as the city plans for commercial and residential development, and concerns are growing over a staffing shortage that could eventually affect service.

Both Millbrae and Burlingame have planned to redevelop Rollins Road and the eastside into a mixed-use neighborhood, providing thousands of homes and commercial development but the rapid growth concerns Fire Chief Bruce Barron, who told the City Council of the recommendation to reopen station 36, which is being used as an administration building, during a meeting Wednesday, July 5.

It's hard to argue with the conclusion when you see the amount of over-development going on.  Now in the midst of this comes the firefighter union's lopsided vote of 'no confidence' in the chief

In June, 85% of the Teamsters 856 Central County Firefighters Union members voted no confidence in Barron’s ability to lead, asking for his immediate removal. The notice was delivered to Lisa Goldman, Burlingame’s city manager and the Central County Fire Department’s chief administrative officer. Shortly after, Barron announced his retirement in October. He has been chief since 2019. But the union members are saying it’s not good enough and want him out immediately.

Aside from the personnel issues now being aired in public, some of this has to do with the move to three-on-a-truck that happened more than a decade ago.  I had a front row seat to that move since my wife was in office and on the contract negotiating team at the time.  Memory is a little foggy now, but I seem to recall it wasn't as cut-and-dry as this note postulates.

The department staffs only three firefighters per fire engine when the National Fire Protection Association recommends four person staffing per engine as the standard practice, according to a presentation facilitated by Barron to the Burlingame City Council in July.

If you spend any time around town, you have seen the impact of the dual roles CCFD have when it comes to emergency medical care for what are now called "mental health crises".  You see the truck, the three firefighters, typically a police car and eventually an ambulance.  That is the three-is-enough scenario, unlike the full-blown fires when four-is-way-better kicks in.

The issue is whether this is a temporary tempest-in-a-teapot that will be resolved either way by October?  In my managerial experience, some people get wound up when their "open and honest" input is met with similarly open and direct responses.  As you can read in the articles, the next chief will have a lot on their operational and strategic planning/financing plate so the sooner we get on with it the better.

County revenue: Slow down now or slow down later

In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.

         — Benjamin Frankline, in a letter to Jean-Baptiste Le Roy, 1789

The art of taxation is to pluck the goose so as to obtain the most feathers with the least amount of hissing.

        --Jean Baptiste Colbert, comptroller general of finance to Louis XIV of France.

 

The SF Chronicle did a wrap-up of the effects of rising interest rates, the resulting slowing home sales and selective home price declines on County property tax collections.  July 1 was the assessors' reporting dates.   I will pluck out the San Mateo County bits:

As mortgage rates shot up last year from around 3.2% in January to as high as 7% in November, fewer people could buy homes. The rise in rates “increased mortgage payments by 30, 40, 50%,” said Oscar Wei, deputy chief economist with the California Association of Realtors.  Buyers who could afford a home found slim pickings, because people with mortgages in the 3% to 4% range were reluctant to sell.

Regionwide, the assessed value of all property subject to property tax grew at a lower rate last year than it did in 2022, mainly because of the sharp slowdown in home sales.  That means property taxes — which primarily fund public schools, community colleges and city and county governments — will also see less growth in fiscal 2023-24.

San Mateo County reduced assessments on 6,403 homes for 2023-24. That was way up from 294 last year, but far below the 34,700 properties that suffered a decline in 2011-12, the assessor’s office said in a news release.

In San Mateo County, the value of business and other personal property rose by 15.7%. It contributed $1.7 billion to the county’s roll, which increased by nearly $19 billion, or 6.9%, to $307.8 billion. Last year’s increase was 8.3%.

Since the Fed is very likely to do at least one or two more rate increases, the turnover on homes is likely to stay muted.  Inflation is finally trending downward, so the double whammy of business assets higher valuations (separate from the real estate) is likely to level off as well.  There are a lot of shovels in the ground on commercial and industrial property, but it has to be nerve wracking from these developers as tech lay-offs continue.  Our County supervisors will have to be careful with all the hand-outs, pay raises, property purchases for subsidized housing, transit giveaways and the like.  Even without a recession later this year, further plucking the goose is going to involve a lot of hissing.

Civil Grand Jury bumps up against reality

It must be a slow session of the San Mateo County Civil Grand Jury if they have time to commiserate about how cities cannot track the incomes of people who occupy ADUs jammed into neighborhoods by the state housing requirement numbers.  No kidding.  Here are some of the specifics from the DJ piece titled "Civil grand jury targets cities' focus on ADUs".

Hillsborough, Woodside, Portola Valley and Atherton are leaning heavily on accessory dwelling units to address the state’s affordable housing requirements and has no way of verifying tenants' income, according to a report by the San Mateo County Civil Grand Jury issued Monday.  “For every accessory dwelling unit that gets a permit and is counted as an affordable unit, equals one fewer deed restricted affordable unit,” civil grand juror Spector said.

Of course, neither does any other city or town without a heavy investment in tenant-snooping snitches.  Even with a snitch army, how do you do it?   Here's the source of the issue:

Each jurisdiction is assigned a number of units for varied incomes: very low, low, moderate and above moderate. Most cities follow a 30-30-30-10 format, meaning 30% each for the very low to moderate income categories and 10% for above moderate. The categories are based on the county’s average median income, around $116,000 for a one-person household, according to the county.

Seldom does one see an instance of social engineering spelled out with such engineer-like specificity.  One wonders if the snoopers will want the full income $xx,xxx.yy details down to the penny?  So instead of crying time-out on the whole principle and sending the CA Department of Housing and Community Development a message to cease-and-desist, the grand jury doubles down

HCD instructed the county jurisdictions to monitor and verify ADU production and affordability at least every two years but never specified what the process should look like, according to the report.  In the report, the grand jury suggests jurisdictions stop using ADUs unless it has an effective monitoring system that verifies how they will be used.

Click through to read more of this ridiculous social engineering fiasco.  As I said, it must be a slow session at the grand jury to get this far out of their lane. 

Calling Canepa on the Carpet

Daily Journal columnist Mark Simon was on the scene at a campaign event for Supe-wannabe Emily Beach when U.S. Rep Anna Eshoo finally stepped up to take current Supe David Canepa to task for his personal attack on fellow Supe Ray Mueller.  Simon notes

In the first comments of their kind by any San Mateo County elected official, U.S. Rep. Anna Eshoo has sharply criticized the Board of Supervisors, in particular, Supervisor David Canepa, for the harsh and personal rhetoric that colored a debate six weeks ago over a proposal to end county cooperation with federal immigration authorities. 

“It is really shameful,” Eshoo said, adding that the board suffered “a total meltdown” characterized by “ad hominem attacks” and “name-calling.  No citizen of San Mateo County should find that acceptable,” Eshoo said. “It was disgusting, and it was painful, and that has never happened before.”  Contacted later, Eshoo confirmed she was referring specifically to remarks by Canepa, who launched a personal attack on Supervisor Ray Mueller. He had proposed an amendment allowing county cooperation with ICE in instances of persons convicted of serious and violent felonies.

Good for Eshoo, as far as she went.  She also criticized the other three Supes for sitting it out.  Canepa's comments like

“Where you (meaning Mueller) live in Menlo Park, it’s the Latino communities, it’s all these other communities, that make your kale salad. When it comes to the white linen tablecloths where you eat, they’re preparing your food, or picking your produce.

“You come up here and you use your privilege and you use it for an amendment that never should have happened,” Canepa continued. “I’m disappointed in you as a person, I’ve lost respect for you. … You’re dividing the Latino community. ... You’ve misled people, you’ve lied to people. … I’m disappointed in you. I am disturbed by you that you would use communities by dividing them.”

What a steaming pile of BS Canepa is spouting.  The real issue, which no one wants to talk about, is whether the Sheriff's department should be working with ICE to deport convicted rapists and child molesters who are in the country illegally.  Does Canepa--and the other three head-in-the-sand Supes--think the Latino community supports rape and child molestation?  No way.  Who exactly are they representing?  There's definitely a racist in this spat but it's not Ray Mueller. 

Watching the new sheriff in town--or trying to

The editor at the Daily Post, Dave Price, has taken a good amount of interest in local police departments and county sheriffs' departments over time.  He's covered the move to encrypted police radios, the general crime beat and whatever else pops up including sheriff elections and the funding for said.  Since we just elected a new San Mateo County sheriff, Cristina Corpus, Price is still on the beat.  He's also apparently a cartoonist--who knew?  Next to his column this week was this cartoon.

The adjacent editorial didn't mention anything about the sheriff's department, so this looks more like an early warning signal.  One thing is for sure; once Dave Price grasps a thread he doesn't let go easily.

Paying Thrice for the Same Road

With the arrival of the express toll lanes on 101 through B'game, gas powered vehicle drivers now get to pay three times for the same road- regular taxes that are supposed to pay for infrastructure, gas taxes of $0.539 per gallon that are supposed to pay for roads and toll charges.  Who knows where that money is going.  The Merc reports

San Francisco Bay Area motorists on Friday saw a new span of toll-based express lanes open on Highway 101, the latest move to ease congestion on one of the region’s most frustrating commutes.

The opening — from Whipple Avenue in Redwood City to Interstate 380 in South San Francisco — means one of California’s busiest corridors now has 22 miles of express lanes that are free to use for carpoolers carrying at least three people and give other drivers the option to pay for faster freeway speeds.

And of course, there is this "hack"

Q: Why aren’t the lanes reducing congestion for most drivers?

A: One of the central benefits of express lanes is that they incentivize carpoolers, thereby taking vehicles off the roads and freeing up traffic for everybody. Cars with at least three people ride for free, and vehicles carrying two people get a 50% discount. But as express lanes roll out around the region, it’s unclear if the system has encouraged more carpooling, while it is clear that it has encouraged drivers to cheat the system.

An early study from the MTC found that on I-880 in August 2020, the vast majority of drivers claiming to have three people in the car were lying. About 28% of drivers set their Fastrak responder to indicate three occupants, while only 2% of cars were carrying three people, the study found.  “It’s really expensive to do enforcement,” said Goodwin. “We’ve got a lot of work to do to still close the gaps.”

And also of course there is the obligatory "equity" bow

Q: These lanes sound expensive. Are there any options for low-income people?

A: Yes, for San Mateo County adults who are making $78,300 or less a year, there is a one-time $100 stipend for express lanes or public transit rides.

You can bet this program costs huge bundles of cash to design, operate, monitor and dispense a C-note.  MTC admits it barely works and is hard to enforce, but they need to expand it.

End of an Era: Our Shrinking County

Let's go to the data to see how the "housing crisis" is coming along.  From the SF Comicle

San Francisco, and the entire Bay Area, lost population during the second year of the pandemic, and California’s population continued to fall for the third year in a row, according to state estimates released Thursday. California’s population declined 0.54% to 39 million people, a loss of over 210,000 people.  The nine-county Bay Area saw some of the steepest population declines in the state — ranging from Napa’s loss of about 1,800 people to Santa Clara’s loss of over 16,500 people, second only to Los Angeles County’s 113,000-person plunge in the state.

San Francisco lost about 8,700 people to net domestic migration; San Mateo lost 12,700 people; Contra Costa County lost 16,400 people; and Alameda lost 27,300. Santa Clara County, the Bay Area’s most populous county, lost 30,900 people to net domestic migration.  That trend reflected many companies allowing workers to stay remote, along with concerns over affordability, said Walter Schwarm, chief demographer at the California Department of Finance, which released the report.

Schwarm expects California population growth to turn positive in the next few years, as immigration rises and the wave of people leaving slows from pandemic-level peaks, but he is doubtful it will return to the more than 1% growth rates seen in the last century.

“The era of large growth for California is probably over,” Schwarm said.

There you have it.  If you click through to the Comicle site, the graph will show San Mateo County was the third largest percentage loser in the Bay Area at -1.1%.  Now will someone revise the RHNA numbers, please?  Also, have you noticed there are more major home remodeling projects in town that have ground to a halt--and some new construction as well?

Water, water everywhere: Except in a bigger reservoir

We must save this missive from the County, the City of San Mateo, the Town of Hillsborough and the SFPUC for posterity.  The obvious question is how far into posterity will we get before this gem comes back to haunt us, our lawns, our gardens, our trees, etc.  The bolded text is my addition

Local agencies are working closely with the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission on monitoring the impacts of the storm on the San Mateo Creek and preparing for the incoming rains next week. On Friday and Saturday of this weekend, residents along the creek may notice increased flow as the SFPUC conducts controlled releases of the Crystal Springs Reservoir to prepare for the next series of storms. Flooding is not expected this weekend and we are tracking the incoming storm.

The SFPUC owns and operates the Crystal Springs Reservoir system on the Peninsula, which includes Lower Crystal Springs Dam on San Mateo Creek. This reservoir is a key source of drinking water for the San Francisco Peninsula and not a flood control facility. As part of SFPUC’s prudent reservoir operations, operators will need to conduct controlled releases of water out of Lower Crystal Springs Dam into San Mateo Creek to create space for expected rain inflow. These releases are planned with consideration of current rain and high tides to minimize impacts to San Mateo Creek. The goal of these releases is to reduce the potential for reservoir spillover during periods of extreme storms. 

Through the weekend of January 7, water levels in Crystal Springs Reservoir are not expected to reach the dam spillway. However, during the week of January 9, there is currently an approximately 25% chance that water may reach the dam’s spillway during one of the succeeding storm events. In such cases of extreme weather that is outside of our control, water flowing into the reservoir would flow out of the reservoir via the dam’s spillway, which would increase flows in San Mateo Creek. Visit SFPUC’s web page at www.sfpuc.org/PeninsulaReservoirWetWeather for more information and updates.

Remember back in June when we went to Stage 2 water restrictions?  Now the water is headed out to the Bay.  Recall also when Dr. Newsha Ajami, Director of Urban Water Policy, Stanford's Water in the West Program noted the state "has already built reservoirs where they work best" and that we should be transitioning to groundwater storage going forward?  Can't come one water year too soon, but is anyone actually working on it or are we just focused on "sea-level rise" and the parcel taxes needed to pay for the walls?

Update 1/16:  I seldom watch TV news but this came on right after the football game and I had been hoping to find a photo of the Hwy 92 sink hole.  Here it is

Caltrain: Dirty little secret revealed

The Daily Post enlightened us yesterday with a frontpage piece on the railroad bridge between Menlo Park and Palo Alto that needs to be replaced ASAP.  The steel bridge is 120 years old and could crack at any time, said Rob Barnard, Caltrain's deputy chief of rail development.  The ugly part of the story is the schedule and impact on operations.  Here are some snippets from the piece:

Caltrain will get to work on designing the bridge at the end of 2024.  Caltrain will come up with a preferred method for replacing the bridge over San Francisquito Creek by 2025, Barnard said.  Steel from the bridge was sent to a lab to be analyzed for strength and composition.  The study found that the bridge is not in imminent danger of collapse, and there are no cracks.  The bridge must be replaced by 2033, and the project will take nine years in total, Barnard said.

Trains won't be able to cross the bridge during two years of construction, Barnard said.  Caltrain may have to run fleets of busses between the Palo Alto station and the Menlo Park station so people can still ride the train, he said.  The "bus bridge" would have to move hundreds of people during the peak hours, so the logistics would be very complicated, Barnard said.

Wanna bet?  This project and two years of off-the-train-on-the-bus-off-the-bus-on-the-train will kill commuter ridership.  It will be a complete mess and everyone will be back in their cars for any trip that crosses the creek.  All of the on-going electrification work and supposed faster service will not bolster ridership until 2033 as the absolute best-case scenario--and when does the best-case ever play out on these projects?  It turns out they are already holding Caltrains off the bridge when a Union Pacific freighter is coming so there aren't two trains on the bridge at the same time.  I see the finances bleeding red and another sales tax and/or bond measure on the horizon.