The Burlingame Voice

Solar: My, what big batteries you have

That 50-hour power outage in January that sent me off to buy a generator also motivated me to finish the solar installation I started two years ago.  I did the panels first as it was a big job ("might as well do the roof first") and decided with local Mr. Solar Steve Pariani's input to wait on the batteries.  Two sleepless nights in January drove me to finish the project and Steve has just completed it--again on time and on budget.

Readers asked how much it cost and what is the warranty on the batteries.  The two Enphase batteries and some more associated interconnection devices came to a shade under $30K including the plans, the permit, installation and sign-off.  They also qualify for the federal tax credit ("ITC") of 30%.  The good news is that two years ago Enphase was only offering ten-year warranties, but now I have a 15-year warranty.  Here are the batteries as installed and the new Enphase app screen that comes with the batteries (as opposed to the simpler one for just having panels.)

State home insurance slipping down the slope

While the retreat by home insurance companies in California hasn't been top of mind for Bgamers, I watch it also as a Tahoe homeowner where it is very much top of mind.  The retreat is real--the public statements from insurance companies match my anecdotal evidence from Tahoe.  The local retreat might start in Hillsborough since the fire danger is greatest there.  With the Legislative session ending tomorrow for the year, the ball is back in Insurance Commissioner Richard Lara's court.  He has to navigate the insurance industry and the "consumer watchdog" industry.  Good luck with that.  The Merc has more details:

“I have always been clear, legislation is one of many options that we have been pursuing,” Lara said. “We also are moving forward with a package of regulatory solutions that will streamline the department’s rate review process, opening it equitably to public input — not just the entrenched interests that have benefited materially from the status quo. We will continue moving forward. Together, we can create a sustainable and resilient insurance market to protect Californians, our communities and our environment.”

While consumer advocates cheered the collapse of a “half-baked bailout” of insurance companies, no deal means no relief yet for consumers, especially those living in wildfire-prone regions who either can’t find an insurer or can’t afford escalating rates. Participation in the state-sponsored, last-resort FAIR plan, intended to provide temporary basic coverage in areas insurers deemed too risky for standard policies, has doubled.

Do you care to guess who is covering the liabilities stemming from FAIR claims?

Mills Canyon: Almost ready for affordable housing? ECR?

With the winter storm damage to Mills Canyon being repaired per this DJ article, perhaps it's time to look at that open space's suitability for satisfying some of our RHNA housing requirements.

The winding trails of Mills Canyon in Burlingame took a hit from harsh winter storms with the popular lower route washed out from tree failures, but work is almost done to complete a reroute.

City Arborist Rich Holtz said the city is aiming to have the trail completed and opened sometime in the coming weeks. Damage from the January storms caused a landslide on the lower portion of the Ed Taylor Loop Trail.  In March, the city contracted a company to develop a trail reroute, which costs around $65,000, for about 600 feet of damaged trail.

We already know that claiming the area is a "wildlife sanctuary" like Woodside tried will not work.  The Sacramento nags won't have it, so maybe it's time.  Six or seven stories would seem to fit nicely and give the top floors a bit of a view!

Just Kidding---I just couldn't wait until next April Fool's Day for this.  But what is not funny is the steady incursion of EssEff-level problems into our little burg.  This Tuesday, 9pm photo of a newly erected tent on El Camino at the B'way bus stop is the latest example.  I've heard of vagrants camping out at the Bayfront and along the Caltrain tracks in the trees, but right on ECR?  Maybe it's time to collect TOT.

All-electric hidden consequences

I find the forced march to an all-electric future interesting on a number of fronts as you can read in the Climate and Power categories.  Some days reading the general business news seems like a session of high school chemistry or geography class.  What flavor of lithium will be the most plentiful and cost effective, where is it mined and where refined?  Answer:  China refines the huge majority today.  What U.S. projects are stalled?  An Idaho cobalt project is 30+ years old and still has not produced an ounce of cobalt.  China also dominates the cobalt processing market.  And the price of cobalt is volatile---dropping now because of lack of Chinese domestic demand in a slow economy that stymies the mining.  As the Journal notes

Economists and executives warn similar challenges lie ahead in the race to build renewable-energy infrastructure. Many of the richest deposits of commodities required lie elsewhere, while firms extracting them in the U.S. or its allies face higher environmental standards, greater labor costs and limited interest from Wall Street.

It has created a puzzle as the Biden administration tries to accelerate electric-vehicle adoption that is key to curbing America’s appetite for fossil fuels. The president’s climate law will offer tax credits to buy models with fewer components and minerals from China, but some automakers warn that many cars won’t qualify.

Meanwhile the business news is also full of hidden consequences.  Ford reported earnings this week and raised its estimated losses on its EV product line this year from $3 billion to $4.5 billion while still reporting a good quarter overall.  How you ask?  Because the base gas-powered products, especially SUVs and F-150s, are funding the EV losses.  People are buying them left-and-right while the EV line runs at a negative 100%+ gross margin.  There's no word about how the Spin bike unit is doing, but Lyft is struggling to find a buyer for its e-bike division.

Daily Journal editor-in-chief Jon Mays stuck his toe in the debate about how far, how much and how fast to go all-electric

Transitioning to an all-electric future is a pretty big lift and I have gotten the feeling much of the energy behind the proponents is shoot first, ask questions later — especially when it comes to the cost and details for the individual. Talking about the cost of new appliances is one thing, talking about the cost of a new electrical panel or an electric service is quite another. It’s the latter that can add up to tens of thousands pretty quick.

There are even more unintended consequences than the direct costs.  Roofers, dry wall installers, painters are salivating.  And reliability is still an issue--just ask the merchants on B'way which absorbed the latest in a long string of power outages last week.  The moral of the story?  Get a generator and/or battery-backed up solar.  I am having my batteries installed next week and will let you know how it goes.  It ain't cheap, but it will be reliable.

Again: Weather is not climate

One of the biggest misnomers in Bay Area journalism is the Sunday SF Comicle section titled "Insights".  You would have to read for weeks and weeks to get any actual insight and you should be on guard for misinformation.  This past Sunday was no exception.  Some random podcaster named Adam Johnson was given 32 column inches of front-page space to proclaim something that even he eventually admits isn't true.  Here are a few excerpts from the piece

Each day they open a paper or turn on a TV and see increasingly extreme weather conditions that, more often than not, are presented as entirely random or an act of God — divorced from or incidental to the human political and economic decisions that are actually causing them.

Exaggerate much?  After four years of serious drought, we got massive amounts of atmospheric river rain and the reservoirs are full.  Opposite "extremes" make cause and effect cloudy.

But climate change and extreme weather are not separate and need to stop being treated as such by newsmakers. Given the existential stakes of catastrophic climate change and the extremely limited timetable humans have to reverse — or at least mitigate — its most extreme effects, the dearth of coverage that clearly connects the dots grows more conspicuous and, frankly, immoral by the day.

Then eight paragraphs later, Johnson notes

Ask any reputable scientist and they will tell you that it's virtually impossible, due to the inherent nonlinear dynamic of climate, to ever blame one specific weather event on climate change, as such.

It's not "virtually impossible".  It's just impossible.  And it's not impossible for any single weather event--you could bundle 25 together and it's still impossible.  As noted here, some scientists will use a 10-year average, but most run with a 30-year average to assess "climate".  One has to wonder how bad business is at the Comicle that they have to outsource major pieces to people who are data-deficient (there isn't any in the whole piece) and who burst their own premise right in the article.

Here's the misinformation headline and a fun photo of the SF Comicle box in front of Mollie Stone's.  And no, I am not the graffiti artist.

Papan putting water in focus

Mr. Water here with a catch-up post on newly minted Assemblywoman Diane Papan's early attention to.....water.  She had a Guest Perspective in the DJ a week ago and it merits some additional coverage as we see how the proposed legislation progresses.  First and foremost, I give her kudos for focusing on something important and suitable for Sacramento to deal with.  I wish some of our other representatives had the same approach.  After the dutiful bow to climate change, we learn from her piece:

That’s why I have made water — the adequacy of supply, equitable distribution, cleanliness and availability — one of my top legislative priorities.

As such, one of my bills, Assembly Bill 753, will ensure that communities harmed by pollution receive state funding to clean up local waters. The bill reforms the State Water Board’s Cleanup and Abatement Fund to require half of these funds be dedicated to cleaning up the most polluted waterways, improving monitoring and developing community capacity so disadvantaged communities can participate fully in addressing water quality.

I'm left wondering what we have been doing with the other half all this time? 

I have also introduced two bills to help ensure reliable, affordable water supplies. Assembly Bill 754 would improve conservation planning by urban and agricultural water agencies by establishing localized conservation measures if water storage falls below specified levels. With the likelihood of more severe droughts, we need to ensure that we’re ready to conserve during times of scarcity.

I'd love to see part of these bills address the reasonableness of cities Urban Water Management Plans as I noted here back in 2021.  Some important data and forecasts just don't pass the smell test.  Having BAWSCA do a roll-up of all of the forecasts from all of its agencies would also be useful.  Next is the bow to some sort of equity

Finally, Assembly Bill 755 addresses rising water rates that are often driven by those who use the most. The bill requires urban water agencies to evaluate what new water supply investments could be avoided if the largest — often most affluent — residential users were to reduce water use. These thirsty users can require an agency to make expensive investments to develop additional water supply and infrastructure, driving up costs for all, including low-income residents and residents who already conserve. This bill can help ensure fairness, encourage conservation and tackle high water costs.

Notice the assumptions embedded.  Affluent people don't conserve, but low-income people do.  Fact-check, please.  Additionally, what expensive investments are being made to develop additional supply around here?  I guess I missed that.  There is of course the big investment to send more NorCal water to SoCal, but I doubt that is what she's talking about.  The maintenace work on the pipe from Hetch Hetchy is needed but doesn't add capacity.  I get worried when I see the word "fairness" creep into legislation.  In a lot of places, its meaning has become inverted such that unfair treatment is masquerading as fair.  Let's not have water flow down the same pipe as the unfair proposals to base electricity prices on users' income.

Trade: Leaf blowers for furnaces and stoves?

Leaf blowers are back on the council's radar and there is at least one regular Voice reader who will be thrilled to hear it.  The DJ reports

Burlingame officials are exploring how to ban gas leaf blowers in the next few years, and are looking into incentive and rebate programs to help commercial landscapers adjust.

The city passed an ordinance regulating when leaf blowers can be used, after receiving noise complaints from residents in 2012. The ordinance outlined that leaf blowers needed to be certified by the city’s Public Works Department and are capped at 65 decibels. The city later determined certifying leaf blowers wasn’t feasible and it stopped enforcing it. A state law will be in effect January 2024 to ban the sale of new leaf blowers, according to a staff report.

However, Mayor Michael Brownrigg said the law doesn’t consider the use of previously owned leaf blowers.  “They are not only highly polluting but highly robust and easily repaired, so they aren’t going anywhere unless we make them go away,” Brownrigg said.

I bold-faced the "wasn't feasible".  I'm not even sure it has proven feasible to restrict which day of the week gardeners can garden.  But that never stopped some from trying even more regulations.  Here's the wrinkly dollar bills

An electric backpack leaf blower costs about $2,500 and a gas leaf blower costs around $600, according to the report.

To do a full day's work, throw in a couple of extra batteries and perhaps an extra charger to get them replenished overnight and you're probably closer to $3,500 (and rising as battery materials go up).  Daily cycling of batteries comes with a lot of wear and tear too.  This is going to cost someone a good chunk of money, but it pales in comparison to what it would cost everyone to change out their natural gas stoves and furnaces.  At least the neighborhoods will be a little quieter.

Spring Treehugger Post: Gimme a double

Happy May Day everyone.  It feels like it has been a long time coming.  I happen to be in Tahoe and there is still a 6-foot snowbank next to my walkway!  Spring skiing has been excellent with enough sunscreen on.  We have a double shot of tree hugging this Spring-- something old and something new.  First up, my brand-new street tree.  The old sycamore had reached its time and the city tagged it for removal and replacement.  It was a smooth operation.  Mark all the utilities which are numerous and very colorfully marked.  Cut it down one day, grind the stump another and plant a new one another day.  We paid the fee to get a larger tree.  Hard to tell from the photo, but my neighbor also got a replacement--standard, no charge size and there is a difference.

The second photo is a lovely apple blossom from my really, really, old Gravenstein apple tree.  A family of squirrels has taken up residence in the trunk, but that has not affected the blossoming thus far.

Recycling Scam Spreads

Two years ago I addressed the idea that our recycling program has problems because of the economics of recycling the various categories of items.  You can see the 2021 market prices here.  90% of what you and I think is being recycled isn't.  It ends up in landfill.  Now it is a bigger concern because another burden has been laid on top of our small and medium-sized businesses by the Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle).  Any "dealer" which includes, but is not limited to, supermarkets, community markets, gas marts, convenience stores, liquor stores, membership bulk stores and health food stores that are more than a mile from a "convenience zone" now has to accept used bottles and cans or else.  What's the "or else"?  All dealers in an unserved zone must redeem empty beverage containers and provide consumers with California Refund Value (CRV) in-store or pay a $100 per day fee.  That 36 grand a year!

Guess which B'game business district is full of smaller retailers that sell a few bottles of water, soda or beer per day and now get the pleasure of dedicating floor space, staff time and record keeping for refunding the CRV regardless of where people bought the containers?  Yep, good old Broadway.  It's more than a mile from Mollie Stone's or the Millbrae Safeway.  There's a reason why the old pre-Covid standalone recycling center operated in the parking lot near the Millbrae Safeway.  The bottles and cans are used, dirty and attract flies, etc. so it's naturally an outdoors or separate operation.  Sorry.  The state doesn't care.  You have to wonder how long a lot of small businesses can stay afloat.

Time to Disband the Air Quality Board

Some letter writer to the WSJ gets credit for this quip:  "The two things government does best are nothing and overreact".  He was writing about the Silicon Valley Bank bailout, but it fits perfectly with the gas-heater-haters at the Bay Area Air Quality Management District.  I think it's time we disbanded the BAAQMD, fired its staff (who aren't working in the public interest), and send the city council people on the Board back to their cities to Do The Job They Were Elected To Do; which is to make good local decisions.

The back story is a bunch of elected officials, who collectively probably couldn't pass a college-level Physics test, have decided that we shall not have gas water heaters or gas furnaces.  No soup for you even if your current set-up has been in existence for decades, works flawlessly during blackouts and costs way less than the alternative.  The Chronicle attempted to quantify the cost of complying:

The new regulations prohibit the sale or installation of water heaters and furnaces that emit nitrogen oxides after 2027 and 2029, respectively.  Electric water heaters and heat pumps are generally more expensive than their gas counterparts. People in older houses may face additional costs such as electrical panel upgrades, ductwork, rewiring or permits, though there are thousands of dollars of rebates and tax credits available at the federal, state and local levels to offset some of the cost differential. 

The cost of installing a heat pump can vary widely, from $7,000 to more than $20,000, according to various studies and data collected from completed projects. Costs for electric water heaters can range from $2,000 to $7,000. Staff from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, the agency that adopted the zero nitrogen oxides regulations, presented average compliance costs at its approval hearing last week: $8,030 for a heat pump and $2,820 for an electric water heater. 

The estimates come from a 2021 study published by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which collected total cost data from 1,739 projects in 15 states, including California, adjusted to the 2019 dollar.   The same study also published average installation costs for gas appliances: $5,096 for a gas furnace and $1,972 for a gas water heater.   Some people and groups have disputed these numbers from their own experience or by pointing to regional data that show much higher installation costs for heat pumps and electric water heaters.

They had California-specific costs (still not Bay Area-specific costs), but chose not to present them at the hearing before the vote--not that it would have mattered:

As part of the approval process, BAAQMD generated a socioeconomic impact analysis that included higher cost estimates from a 2019 Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) study specifically looking at California: between $7,000 to $20,000 of all-in costs for a heat pump depending on the type, and from $3,000 to $4,700 for a heat pump water heater.

The E3 study assumed that pre-1978 homes would need to upgrade to a panel of 200 amps when switching to both a heat pump and water heater, and estimated this would cost $4,256 for single-family homes and $2,744 for low-rise multifamily homes.

And there are higher costs from another data source and one person who highlights yet another unaccounted-for cost--TAXES:

Out of 9,895 heat pumps installed with Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost before incentives was $18,842, with an average total incentive of $3,433. For the 1,334 heat pump water heaters that received Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost was $7,054, with an average total incentive of $3,617.

The Tech CLEAN data tracks most closely to Redwood City resident Kent Holubar’s experience installing a heat pump last summer. Installation of Holubar’s Mitsubishi heat pump cost $17,875, with another $1,865 required for permits, bringing the total cost to $19,740, Holubar shared with The Chronicle.

Holubar had wanted to make the upgrade for a while and was able to do so with part of his mother’s estate after she passed away. But after the installation, Holubar received an annoying surprise: Holubar’s 1953 home was assessed at $10,000 more than it was before he installed the heat pump because of its air conditioning properties — adding extra property taxes every year, Holubar said.

Also lost in the ozone of government cost studies are the things I mentioned in my letter to the B'game city council and in the comments on the prior Natural Gas: Follow the Science? post.  Things like removing the old pipes and vents, drywall repair and paint, roof repairs to fill the old holes, pouring concrete pads for the new equipment--the list goes on and on.  BUT the big cost that none of these studies capture is the time and effort of the homeowner.  It will likely be enormous and growing worse as the deadlines loom and pass.  No more calling the water heater guy and answering one question:  Do you want a 40 gallon or 50 gallon unit?  Soon it will be "A Project" with all of the typical project management expenses in time, effort and money.   Better to disband the Air Quality Board and leave people to transition if and when they want.