The Burlingame Voice

Koonin - Part 2 Some definitions

After introducing Steven Koonin's new book here in Part 1, let's start the overview of it with some of the key definitions one needs to understand to even begin getting a grip on The Science.  Starting back in college stats class:

Every measurement of the physical world has an associated uncertainty interval (usually denoted by the Greek letter sigma: σ).  We can't say what the measurement's true value is precisely, only that it is likely to be within a range specified by σ.  Thus we might say the global mean surface temperature in 2016 was 14.85^o C with a σ of o.o7^o C.  That is there is a two-thirds chance that the true value is between 14.78 and 14.92^o C.  The measured annual increase of 0.04^o C between 2015 (14.81 +/- 0.07^o C) and 2016 is insignificant since it is smaller than the uncertainties--about half as large.  The media might well still scream "Temperatures Continue to Rise, either out of ignorance or to capture readers' attention.

Next, "weather" does not equal "climate".  A location's climate is the average of its weather over decades.  The UN's World Meteorological Organization defines climate as a thirty-year average, although some climate researchers will sometimes discuss averages over a period as short as ten years.  So changes in the weather from one year to the another do not constitute changes in the climate.

Alas, it isn't easy to measure the surface temperature over the whole earth, particularly when you are looking for changes of a fraction of a degree over decades.  You have to worry  about variations in the thermometers themselves, how they're housed, and exactly where they're located.  And even if a station hasn't been move over the years, urbanization around a site is a concern, since buildings, roads, and concentrated human activity make cities a few degrees warmer than their rural surroundings.

The global temperature anomaly is the deviation of the average daily temperature from its expected value, averaged over each day of the year and over the whole globe.  The rate of rise was twice as large as our 0.09^o C/decade long-term average during the forty years from 1980 to 2020 (0.02^o C) while it was negative during the forty years from 1910 to 1940 (-0.05^o C/decade).

That is just a little warm-up to the types of details, Koonin adds to the discussion.  The bit about measurement uncertainty is something I have known for years, but he really crystalizes it with the numbers.  As he looks at the models that are the source of the forecasts, we have to keep the uncertainty intervals in mind.

Koonin - Part 1 "Unsettled" is Required Reading

I've just finished reading the most important climate change book available today.  Steven Koonin's Unsettled addresses "what climate science tells us, what it doesn't, and why it matters".  Koonin was a professor at CalTech for 30 years, provost for 10 of those years, chief scientist at BP focused on renewable energy technologies, Undersecretary for Science at the Department of Energy in the Obama Administration and is now a professor at NYU.

His book uses available data from many government and academic sources and applies his cross-functional knowledge in physics, computer modelling, statistics, climate science, etc to understand what the data tells us--and more importantly, what it doesn't tell us.  Over 14 chapters, his analysis is devastating to "The Science" that our politicians and climate activists claim is all settled.  By eliminating the cherry picking of data that occurs via selecting narrow windows of time or geography, adding the statistical confidence intervals to measurements that get headlines and noting the counterbalancing effects of some forms of emissions Koonin shows that the media (and some unscrupulous academics and government agencies) are misleading the public.

The book is technical as it must be, but he has written it for the general public so it's very readable if you have some basic knowledge of chemistry, physics and math--mostly statistics.  I've listed this post as Part 1 because I plan to serialize some parts of the book.  Here in B'game we have banned natural gas in new construction, begun worrying about sea level rise, promoted electric cars and issued warnings about all sorts of natural disasters supposedly related to climate change.  Before we get too far into these restrictions and expenses wouldn't it be good to know more about how human activity is really affecting the climate.

Ben Franklin: Colonial Blogger

I am thoroughly enjoying Ben Franklin: An American Life by Walter Isaacson that was published in 2003.  I enjoy biographies and autobiographies in general, but this one is so well-researched and well-footnoted that it puts what we all learned in high school U.S. history to shame.  During his life, Franklin referred to himself as a printer.  That vastly understates his talents as a pamphleteer and editor of his own newspaper.  One of the themes of the book is Franklin’s use of anonymous essays to make his points.  Here at the Voice we have occasional flare-ups about not requiring commenters to use their real names, but Franklin set the precedent for American journalism by publishing as Homespun, Pacificus Secundus, Busy-Body, Silence Dogood and Alice Addertongue among many, many other names.  On page 227 of Isaacson’s book he notes

As has been frequently noted, Franklin often wrote anonymously or using a pseudonym.  Sometimes, he was trying to to be truly anonymous; at other times, he was wearing only a thin mask.  This practice was not unusual, indeed it was quite common, among writers of the eighteenth century, including such Franklin heroes as Addison, Steele, and Defoe.  “Scarce one part in ten of the valuable books which are published are with the author’s name,” Addison once declared, with a bit of exaggeration.  At the time, writing anonymously was considered cleverer, less vulgar, and less likely to lead to libel or sedition charges.  Gentlemen sometimes thought it was beneath their stature to have their names on pamphlets and press pieces.  The practice also assured that dissenting political and religious writings were rebutted on their merits rather than by personal attacks.

I find Old Ben’s thinking on this quite sound.  I’m sometimes asked why the Voice doesn’t require registration, real names and verification.  There is the answer from 260 years ago.  I highly recommend the book and expect to be taking on other Franklin thoughts relevant to very current issues in the coming weeks and months.

More Avenue Woes: Books Inc. Closing

You can't chat with any local B'gamer for very long before you hear two things:  "I'm going to miss Orchard Supply in Millbrae" and "I wish the Avenue would stay more local" or words to that effect like "it's just an outdoor mall" or "why can't we have more non-chain stores" or "how many hair and nail salons does this town need"?  Here is news from the DJ about the closing of another chapter in the Avenue's story

After almost two decades of enduring a changing industry and local marketplace, independent bookstore Books Inc. announced it will be shuttering its location on Burlingame Avenue.   Though the parent company continues to thrive despite the threat to retailers posed by the trend toward online sales, (President Michael) Tucker said the decision to close had more to do with the transition taking place in downtown Burlingame.  “It’s just the reality of what goes on, that a low-margin business like books cannot compete for occupancy with the big boys, the national brands,” said Tucker, nodding to the corporations such as Apple, Lululemon or Pottery Barn which also occupy nearby storefronts.

You can click through to read the full story including kind words about Karim Salma (the landlord) and more of the DBID president's thoughts

Juan Loredo, president of the downtown business improvement district, said the company’s decision to leave is similar to the other tough choices faced by other local retailers.  “The internet kind of paved the way for these smaller places and retail shops to leave because everyone is online shopping,” he said.

And this is welcome news also

Tucker took time to note though that the company plans to preserve its connection with local schools and organizations in Burlingame which the company has partnered with over the years.

Maybe this is an opening for some bookseller to find space in a less expensive part of B'game to make another run at it.  I still miss the Feldman's that was a block north of B'way before consolidating down to the Menlo Park main store.

 

Coffee and a Newspaper

Do you remember how the Internet was going to kill libraries?  It may be happening in some places, but I was in the main B'game library this week and it was pleasantly busy.  The remodel gives it a bit more of a communal feel and the imminent arrival of the cafe will add to that feel.  With Philz about to open a block away, I wonder what brand(s) the library will be serving?  The sign that says Fika is a Swedish reference to "coffee break", but that may or may not translate to using the Gevalia brand.

Library Renewal

The Daily Journal is updating us on the library update project which will renew one of our restoration jewels in town

Construction is slated to begin Aug. 11 to upgrade Burlingame’s main Primrose Road library with the city hiring a construction firm to carry out the work.

The $3.5 million project will modify the downtown branch’s interior to meet the needs of modern patrons by providing flexible space for collaboration, creativity and exploration. The City Council awarded a $1.74 million construction contract to Zolman Construction and Development to create the new tech and media lab with updated computers and LCD screens, video conferencing capabilities, four group study rooms, new conference room that fits 20 people, expanded teen area, a Burlingame Library Foundation bookstore and café, along with new carpeting. Officials are excited for the changes, which are targeted to be completed in April 2015.

Here is the teen area set for expansion.  It's usually quite busy when I go by there.

Six Things to Get Right

My "think pieces" usually come to me on the road, but this one landed right in my driveway in the WSJ on Tuesday.  A book reviewer named Yuval Levin reviewed a book called Why Government Fails So Often by Peter H. Schuck.  Schuck is an emeritus professor at Yale and the review notes that

"To be successful, he argues, a public policy has to get six things right:

• Incentives
• Instruments
• Information
• Adaptability
• Credibility
• Management

He argues the federal government tends to be bad at all these things.  I'll add his example as a comment, but mostly I wanted to post these six things here for reference as we example High-cost Rail, Friends with Benefits and some of the other recurring topics.

A sale of historic proportions

I don't normally post calendar items to this blog, but this one should be fun and it's a fundraiser too!

On Sunday, April 6th, there will be a sale of historic proportions. The Burlingame Historical Society Rummage Sale will feature items of historical interest as well as household items. Sale items include: vintage Burlingame city directories, mannequin parts, antique adding machines, rare books, sheet music, vintage luggage and much more. You don't want to miss this one!! It all starts at 9am at the Burlingame Ave train station where the museum is located.

Here are a few sample items, but know that there will be much more. C'mon down.

Everyone needs one of these, right?

Don't miss it!

Library Renewal- the Space, not Books

There's a nice article about the B'game library renewal that is being planned as we speak in today's Daily Journal.  I've seen some of the preparation first hand as the library has decommissioned some extra copies of cool stuff and donated it to the Historical Society to help it raise funds.  Being a Craigslist kind of guy, the Society asked me to post a test book for sale there.  If you search on "Burlingame City Directory - 1942 edition" you too can own a great bit of B'game history.  The plans for the library include

an expanded teen room, a café and a used bookstore in the main level.  A technology lab and several new study rooms are also in line to be added in the lower level. The upper level will feature conference rooms for community and business uses.  Each of these levels will also have updated computers and LCD screens to accommodate the community’s needs.

Everytime I go to the library it's pretty full so these updates give me a sense that the usage will continue.  This is great stuff if we can get from $445K to the $1M that is needed.

Panther Retiring

The Daily Journal has a lovely piece about BHS English and journalism teacher Linda McLaughlin retiring at the end of the school year after 27 years.  Linda taught both of my kids so I've met her at a couple of parent-teacher nights and one kid was on the Burlingame B newspaper staff, so I can appreciate her contributions on both fronts.  The piece notes

She began teaching the journalism class 26 years ago when the last advisor for The Burlingame B retired. At the time, she said she knew nothing about journalism but wanted to pick up an extra class so she could stay at the school.

The timing is right for her retirement, McLaughlin said. She plans on spending time with her four grandsons and two step-granddaughters, travel, research the history of Burlingame High for a potential book and read.

I look forward to her end-of-year column for the paper and will try to remember to link to it.  The book sounds like a tremendous idea and I know the Historical Society archives will prove very useful.  Congrats, Linda!