The Burlingame Voice

Travis AFB: Hypocrisy meter hits 100

My hypocrisy meter pegged at 100 yesterday reading the SF Comicle article about possibly using Travis AFB near Sacramento as an ICE detention center.  Forget about the proposed use, who proposed it or where it is and all the other stuff that people will endlessly disagree about in the political realm without changing anyone's mind.  My H-meter spiked because of this:

Federal officials have been looking for months for detention facilities in Northern California and other Western states that could have 850 to 950 detention beds.  Reps. John Garamendi, D-Fairfield, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, and Mike Thompson, D-Napa, told Hegseth in a May 5 letter that they were “deeply frustrated” and “gravely concerned” about using Travis as a migrant detention center.

Why might you ask?

They want the Pentagon to explain how building a detention center would affect Travis’ water and energy infrastructure.

Sure, filling 950 beds in an established major facility that has housed people since 1942 kicks off concerns about water and electricity.  But building thousands of units that have 2-4 beds in every city and town up and down the state?  Don't worry, there will be plenty of water, sewer capacity, electricity, parking, school capacity, police and fire--fergettaboutit.  Just don't use natural gas.  If you are a big-time Federal politician, you can just throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks.  Try that as a regular resident and you are a NIMBY using zoning codes and CEQA as a weapon.  Want to avoid big residential construction on the B'game Bayfront because it lacks said infrastructure?  Too bad.  From the DJ:

New and proposed state housing laws could mean housing on the Bayfront without specific city standards, despite the city’s intent to limit such development there in its general plan.  New housing was zoned for the north end of Burlingame, near Bay Area Rapid Transit, not on the Bayfront — though proposals for changing zoning there have been floated several times over the years.  The Burlingame City Council and Planning Commission, meeting April 29, in a joint session expressed that the laws will severely undermine the city’s ability to effectively plan its own new housing and undercut its environmental and safety goals.

Councilmembers expressed frustration that the state was continuing to remove local control from the city’s development process, citing its recent endeavors to meet its state-mandated housing requirements by building out housing in the North Rollins Road area.

The hypocrisy needle is pinned to the top of the meter.

Top Golf: First impressions

Six years after we got the preview of the Top Golf plans (as described here), I finally made it out to the Bayfront for some swings and refreshments.  We went with a large group and booked two stations for two hours on a busy Saturday afternoon.  The facility is impressive and expansive.  There are 36 hitting stations on each of three levels.  We were on the middle level, and I got a bit of the agoraphobic feeling I had when I did the special event at Oracle Park hitting golf balls on to the baseball field from stations in the stands.  There are nets in front.

The sports bar in the lobby is likely to draw a good crowd of all ages with the giant screen shown below, a full bar, pub fare, foosball and shuffleboard.  I could see going out there without hitting any balls.  With the soccer field a short walk away, there were plenty of kids kicking back after games.  For the uninitiated, the gamification of the golf shots is not exactly intuitive.  The idea is to set up teams and rack up points similar to pinball by hitting targets.  If I were Top Golf, I would offer some coaching to newbies on how to set it up and perhaps explain why an additional $5 charge per player for "membership" kicked in above the station rental fee.

The stations are set up for hitting and socializing.  Some have high-tops and all appeared to have couches.  We had a few tag-alongs who didn't hit a single ball and still had fun.  The food appeared to be pretty average.  There were no complaints about the chicken sandwich and fries, but a local hack I will tip you off to is the Mexican restaurant (Gabriel's & Daniel's) in the old driving range building across the parking lot is still operating albeit on limited hours--they closed at 5pm on Saturday.  The food is excellent--probably the best Mexican between Millbrae and San Mateo.

Another oddity is the drink menu doesn't have any prices on it!  The Angel's Envy Old Fashioneds are $17.75.  A Hendricks Martini is $19.75 while good ole Grey Goose goes off at $12.25.  You don't find that out until the bill arrives.  Those aren't usurious prices, but why not print them?

We shall see if the business turns out to be the sales tax gusher the city is hoping for.  Other Top Golf sites that are older and perhaps not as cool were reported to be under plan as we noted here last September.  With 108 stations and a fun bar, I hope they do well so we can do well.

Pushing back on the YIMBYs

From the "broken clock is right twice a day" file comes this Letter to the Editor of the SF Comicle.  Somehow the editors let this one slip through the cracks and into print.  I don't know the woman or the organization, but she hits pretty much every button right on the nose:

YIMBY housing fantasies won’t work in California. Here’s the reality

Regarding “There’s no protecting California values without building more housing” (Open Forum, SFChronicle.com, Dec 13): The steady drumbeat of op-ed pieces from SPUR and YIMBY housing advocates is tiresome. Many Californians disagree with them.  Urban density and infill housing are supposed to remedy suburban sprawl. But urban density, in practice, simply creates overcrowded streets, with motorists circling in search of rare parking.   Infill comes at the expense of historic buildings and districts, which are often demolished. A classic example is the enormous apartment buildings planned for the former California College of the Arts campus in Oakland.

Transit-oriented development? This fantasy assumes that public transportation is a fixed utility. Many bus lines that once served our communities have been cut.  How many voters will oppose a tax to support BART because of the agency’s plans to put apartments in its parking lots? How many people have quit taking BART because there is no secure place to park near the stations?

The SPUR and YIMBY people want Soviet-style apartment blocks wherever they can be crammed in, extinguishing every vestige of charm from neighborhoods.  It’s time for the state to stop forcing draconian “density bonus” and “builder’s remedy” laws on neighborhoods that want to retain some breathing room.

Amelia Marshall

Board member, Oakland Heritage Alliance

Amen, Amelia.  Look no further than our latest Cellblock at One Adrian Ct.  It may not extinguish any charm in the neighborhood since it sits next to a Public Storage business, but you can bet it will raise traffic thru the Worst Intersection in the State and put pressure on all sorts of public services.  Did the grid get any major upgrade?  School capacity?  Did we hire another police officer for traffic enforcement?  Anything thing else listed here?  Keep up the good work, Ms. Marshall.  You are far from alone.

The Tsunami that wasn't: Lessons learned

It was an exciting morning.  I just happened to be outside talking to a buddy whose tsunami knowledge was unknown to me when his phone went off about 10:45 am.  I got nothing on my phone, but he started making a plan since he knew a "warning" is the highest level of four notices that are issued.  Listening to him, I was concerned for the coastal areas covered in the warning; from the area of the 7.0 undersea earthquake off Ferndale down to Davenport on the PCH.  I was skeptical that it would be an issue here on the west side of B'game.  Nonetheless it was time to turn on the local TV news station that was in Breaking News mode.  There was a second quake north of Sacramento that registered a 6.0, the BART tube was shut down and SFO was landing flights as normal while noting the runways are only 13 feet above sea level.

The warning was in effect until 11:49 am-- an hour after the quake hit.  My knowledgeable buddy took off--I didn't ask where, but he mumbled something about "uphill".  The TV experts from SFFD, National Weather Service and some quake center were talking Go-Bag and getting up to 100 feet of elevation.  Traffic on eastbound 92 was bumper to bumper.  I was still skeptical of any tsunami squeezing through the Golden Gate, wrapping around the Bay and pushing water past maybe our Bayfront.  There's a reason Laguna Ave. is named Laguna Ave.  After watching the YouTube documentary on the Japan tsunami of 2011 my friend recommended, a second thought or two has crept in.

I have to wonder why the SMC Alert didn't hit my phone until 11:49 am, an hour after the quake and then was deemed not a danger at 12:10 pm?  It turns out that a 7.0 quake, while big in town, isn't considered to be big enough to cause a major tsunami.  Is there such a thing as a minor tsunami?  Let's hope SMC alert and the quake shake apps are working as designed.  

Increasing 101 Congestion: Who's to blame?

The SF Comicle dove into the effects of the express toll lanes on 101 that opened in March 2023 through B'game. 

The number of drivers using the Bay Area’s newest highway express lanes is rising — but even as those drivers are enjoying speedier rides, traffic in the regular lanes appears to be slowing, a new report says.  The number of drivers using the Bay Area’s newest highway express lanes is rising — but even as those drivers are enjoying speedier rides, traffic in the regular lanes appears to be slowing, a new report says.

Those drivers, the report found, enjoy speeds of at least 45 miles per hour and travel about 11-12 mph faster than those stuck in the regular lanes.  However, the traffic in the general-use lanes slowed — at some times and in some locations — to less than 30 mph, according to the report.

Our very own former councilwoman, Emily Beach, in her new capacity as communications person for the TA was tasked with the official response

Emily Beach, a spokesperson for the San Mateo County Transportation Authority, said it’s difficult to draw conclusions about the express lanes, which started full operation in March 2023, and their effect on overall traffic.  “It’s early,” she said. “We have just over a year of data to analyze and that includes the learning period while drivers are getting used to the lanes as well as the increase in the number of people returning to the office.”

And as anyone could have expected, the system ain't perfect especially when it seems to me that no one is enforcing the rules on darkened car windows

But express-lanes officials are aware that some drivers without a sufficient number of passengers simply flip the switch on their FasTrak Flex toll tag to indicate they qualify for a free ride in the fast lane.  Transportation officials who operate express lanes across the Bay Area have identified express lane cheaters as a serious problem. They can be caught only by California Highway Patrol officers who can see how many occupants they’re claiming and compare it with what they see in the car.

In the San Mateo County lanes, roughly 25% of those declaring they have three or more in their cars could be lying, a May “toll leakage” study found.  Those scofflaws could be costing the express lanes $8,000-$12,000 a day during the morning and evening commute hours alone.

 

Let's just run the math on that.  Using just weekdays, of which there are 261 per year, that means toll fraud is somewhere between $2M and $3M and change per year.  If we throw in some busy weekends and why not if only the CHP can do anything about it and many of them are busy bailing out EssEff and Oakland local police per Gavin's direction?  Call it $3.5 million a year.  The next time you bog down in stop and go traffic trying to get from the north to the Broadway exit--which is pretty much every time you try to get from the north to B'way--and then get pummeled by the potholes on El Camino, think about the Law of Unintended Consequences.  Then think all of the new office space planned and being built on the Bayfront.

Peninsula Ave. interchange "scrapped" for good?

I can hear the cheers from the Lyon-Hoag neighborhood from here on my perch on the west side.  The "upgrade" to Peninsula Ave. at 101 has been bandied about for almost 20 years.  The neighborhood concerns voiced in public go back more than 10 years as shown in this post from 2015.  Now the weight of the project--cost, eminent domain, and community opposition have apparently caused it to collapse.  I'm guessing this council decision pre-dates the weekend pedestrian fatality on Peninsula.  While I feel happy for Lyon-Hoag, caution and observation remain the best course.  These things can be like zombies.  And the pressure from over-development on the Bayfront is ever growing.  The Daily Journal notes

A long-standing effort to move the Highway 101 southbound off-ramps from East Poplar Avenue north to Peninsula Avenue has been officially scrapped, though plans to address congestion and mitigate collisions in the area are still being finalized.

For years, the city (Ed: San Mateo) has looked into relocating the (Poplar Ave.) ramps to Peninsula Avenue because, east of Idaho Street, it has two lanes in each direction, no parking or driveways and has shoulders and bike lanes, all advantages over East Poplar Avenue. The total project cost estimate ranges from $169 million to $227 million, and while some funding could be secured from regional or state agencies, the majority would have to come from the city.

Moving forward would also require the city to acquire dozens of private properties along North Amphlett Boulevard via eminent domain, another financial burden for the city. Councilmember Rich Hedges said, at this point, many of the affected residents just want to know which direction the city is going so they can plan accordingly.

A lot of B'gamers are having sighs of relief.  As one local noted "No, it's not April 1st".  Let's keep it that way.

Topgolf: Is the cash cow running low on milk?

We noted the news that Callaway and Topgolf were looking to get a divorce here on the last Topgolf post.  I didn't fully catch that the financial struggles were on the Topgolf side instead of the equipment (Callaway) side, but a WSJ piece lays it all out.  The entertainment center business (i.e. the hi-tech driving range) is good--just not quite as good as it has been.  There are big hopes in City Hall that Topgolf will drive serious tax revenue allowing the city to shoot for the green with a smooth pitch and sink some long putts.  But.....

Serious golfers are reliably showing up on golf courses, spending money on their equipment and golf balls. But recreational players are no longer as keen on shelling out some $70 an hour on a driving range for fun these days.  Lately, the Topgolf business has been hit hard by slowing consumer spending. Same-venue sales fell 8% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive quarter of declines. The sales drop was even worse for big-group events because of “corporate belt-tightening,” according to the company.  (Ed:  think Westin, Hyatt, Marriott).

The company initially thought that visitors to Topgolf would become newbie golfers who might seek out its products after trying them out at those venues, which carry Callaway equipment. As it turns out, hitting a few balls at a recreational driving range isn’t enough to convert people into Callaway faithful.

The steeper price tag might be one contributor: In its location in Edison, N.J., for example, it costs about $155 to reserve one bay for a two-hour session during peak hours. And that doesn’t include food or drinks. Topgolf is trying out different ways to lure customers, including variable pricing, tweaks to its promotions and adding concerts and live DJ nights.

Here's the bottom line

Topgolf itself isn’t a lousy business—it is profitable and generated a 15.5% margin on the basis of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization last year. Its top line grew at a healthy 27% compound annual growth rate between 2021 and 2023 before the recent slowdown, and it still has a long runway of new locations. (Ed: especially our little B'game location).  It will, however, first need to prove that it can bring customers back after the first handful of visits.

Now, let's chat about those "DJ nights".  I never went to the movie nights at the old driving range during Covid, but I recall they did draw a bit of a crowd to Boringame.  What's the curfew policy these days on the Bayfront?

Do we need some AI at Broadway?

I get it.  It's a complicated intersection.  We've got a lot of traffic coming off 101.  We've got a lot of traffic headed to 101.  We've got three big intersections at Rollins, Carolan and California before cars squeeze into an historic retail district.  We've got Caltrains going in both directions and they stop occasionally on the weekends.  We've got the worst designed roadway in the mid-Peninsula at our new and "improved" California Dr. with a too-tight left turn from B'way to southbound California.  There's pedestrians and a few bikers.  There SamTrans busses and big trucks--really big trucks that carry the cars whose sales fund the city quite well.  Some of the drivers from somewhere else and are staying at our other revenue stream--a half dozen Bayfront hotels.  They get to figure out the maze in real time.

Almost everyone wants a grade separation that is a hundred million bucks or so short and losing ground as inflation grinds on.  All the local politicians want it--and some even get kudos from the press for "advocating" for more money.  I can "advocate" for SpaceX to get to Mars sooner, but that ain't gonna make it happen.

In the meantime, perhaps we could chip away at the easiest annoyance.  Coming into the Broadway district from the 101 off-ramps, it's not uncommon to sit through two or even three cycles of the light to turn left onto Carolan.  You think you are a savvy local and will head down towards the high school as a Caltrain rumbles through.  But no.  The light cycles from yellow to red.  Back to yellow, back to red.  No traffic coming towards you (the gates are down).  No northbound traffic turning left onto B'way (no room at the gates).  So you wait.  Informed sources tell me that it's because two old light controllers are joined at the hip when they should be separate.  No one wants to invest to fix it while we wait for the Big Dig.....

What's it going to take?  OpenAI and an awesome code jockey?  A plea to ChatGPT?  A grizzled old Caltrain electrician coming out of retirement to save the day?  How do we Grok this problem?  At the very minimum, let's not replicate the problem at Oak Grove, please!

Housing Maneuvers - Part 1 Pausing the land grab

We noted that the real action County-wide and State-wide in the Fall election is in the propositions and initiatives since the candidate voting is pretty much a given.  B'game will have a real race or two, but outside our little town there is a lot of fait accompli.  But one controversial move that will not be on the ballot is the County land grab for "affordable housing".  The DJ is noting that the Supes, in their wisdom, have decided to "pause" their land grab.

Despite a poll suggesting majority voter support, San Mateo County will not be placing a measure on November ballots allowing the development of low-income housing units without voter approval, in pursuant of Article 34 of the state Constitution.  The measure, initially presented at a special meeting of the board July 22, would have provided authorization for the county and other public agencies to construct or acquire affordable rental housing for low-income residents — up to 1% of total existing housing units — without voter consideration. 

Although Chief Executive Officer Mike Callagy maintained Article 34 “has no place in this county,” he did not ask the Board of Supervisors to consider approving such a measure placement this election cycle.

One has to wonder what other bits and pieces of the state Constitution have no place in San Mateo County?  Perhaps we could get a list?  The usual blather about "racism in homeownership" and "constituent confusion" and wanting to be "collaborative" with local cities and not "usurp their authority" ensued. The reality is the November ballot is already stuffed with pork.  So much so that voters are likely to Just Say No to the whole lot.  Half Moon Bay and Millbrae led the public charge against this land grab.  Here's hoping B'game electeds did so quietly but firmly.

Building more vacant office space?

Some dots are so obvious to connect that it's child's play.  Take for example all the office building going on up and down the mid-Peninsula.  One wonders what the developers are thinking.  A big dot was publicized last week in Mountain View per the Merc:

MOUNTAIN VIEW — A lender has seized through foreclosure a South Bay tech campus once touted as an “exquisite” property in fresh sign of the economic troubles facing the Bay Area office market.  The office campus, located at 350 and 380 Ellis Street in Mountain View, was seized by an affiliate of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, which is managed by New York City-based investment behemoth KKR & Co. Inc.

The $120.6 million that KKR invested to buy the tech campus is a jaw-dropping 66% less than the $357.6 million that an alliance of investment behemoth Goldman Sachs and Bay Area real estate firm TMG Partners paid in 2021 to buy the office complex.  The Ellis Street tech campus is now worth just one-third of its value at the time Goldman Sachs and TMG bought the property almost exactly three years ago.

I did business with clients in those buildings for years.  They are nice spaces (probably "Class A" but I'm no expert).  I just know they have a great location compared to many others in Silicon Valley.  And they lost 2/3 of their value in three years. The dot begging to be connected is this building below on Old Bayshore in dear Old B'game.  It's just one of several in progress as materials and labor costs jump and interest rates stay sticky at about 7%.  It will be a nice space as well with a giant parking garage on the left.  But will it be vacant for a while...or longer?  There are more Bayfront spaces lined up for redevelopment--the Hyatt Cinema is looking ready to fall down by itself.  At least the Broadway-California intersection is getting fixed.....wait, what?