Bay Area "Labor market malaise" to continue?

It's best to take the long view when watching the economic dynamics of the Bay Area.  Point in time measures can't tell the whole story but do provide some sense of the state of things.  $12 billion dollar state budget deficit?  Check.  Transit "fiscal cliff" that sends politicians running for more taxes?  Check.  Massive Bay Area employers backing off of paying for huge residential housing projects?  Check.  Employment down? Check as the Merc is reporting today:

The Bay Area lost 14,700 total nonfarm payroll jobs in all categories over the first four months of 2025. Over the same time, California lost 32,300 total payroll jobs, official reports from the state Employment Development Department show.

“There is little doubt that federal government job losses will be an important contributor to the labor market malaise that already appears to be falling over the Bay Area,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.  In sharp contrast, state and local government agencies have increased hiring, but that may soon change.

Let's hope so.  The Merc doesn't provide the denominator to the fraction, i.e. how many nonfarm jobs are there?  But a $12 billion deficit is not a chump-change.

Job losses within the federal government could become far worse in the months ahead, some experts warn.  “These numbers are the tip of the iceberg,” Levy said. “The majority of federal job cuts are not reflected in the April data.”

A $2.4 trillion-dollar federal deficit ain't chump-change either so I take issue with the characterization of federal RIFs becoming "far worse".  Right sizing government and bringing some sanity to the Bay Area jobs-housing ratio that might stop the "Wienerization" of the suburbs is to be encouraged.  Want to stop the $inkhole sucking taxpayer cash that is the high-cost rail project?  It's only claim to fame so far is that it "creates" a lot of new jobs.  I'm sure we could put a few to work on the Broadway grade separation for a tiny fraction of what is being wasted in the Central Valley.  Don't hold your breath.

Comments

[Peter Garrison]

Joe, I think you’ve found the solution to the Broadway Overpass puzzle-of-procrastination: “Holding your breath.“

We need to form a team of Breath Holders to go down to the Broadway train tracks and hold their breath until they pass out. It’ll be performative and irritating in the best American protest-fashion.

As a surfer, I can hold my breath for three minutes, so I’m gonna have to opt out. We need to find people with shorter breath-soans…

[Fugit All]

So you're actually rooting for economic slow down and for people to be out of work all to serve your NIMBYism and the fixation you have on the rail project, Joe?

And Garrison is being deliberately ambiguous but he's either rooting for people to lie down in the Broadway intersection or on the tracks themselves but only if they're less fit than him and strictly metaphorically, of course.

Jesus you guys are cruel.

[Joe]

I always liked the saying out of the legal profession:

If you have the facts, pound the facts.
If you don't have the facts, pound the table.

When you have a different perspective on the $12B deficit, overbuilding commercial ahead of infrastructure and a more balanced jobs:housing ratio, how many more billions we should pour into HSR or why cities' zoning plans and rights should be eviscerated, let me know.

[hollyroller@ gmail.com]

By the way all..
Get used to paying a Fair Wage. $21.00-$32.00 per hour.
Social Security.
Tree work. $70.00-$100.00 per man per hour.
Licenses, Permits....
The Party is over Burlingame

[F. Scott Wiener]

Crickets from Fugit All.

Happy to pay a fair wage, hollyroller.

F. Scott Wiener

[CalTrain Boy]

Joe - THis will make a great story / post.

https://sfstandard.com/2025/06/12/caltrain-employee-secret-apartment-burlingame-station-photos/

[Paloma Ave]

Hi Holy - When did they let you out?

[Joe]

Hey Caltrain Boy--

Have a look around Voice. It's all already here. The "secret apartment' is really the "secret apartments"--don't forget Millbrae! It's the second biggest scandal after the sheriff Soap Opera!

https://www.burlingamevoice.com/2024/03/bgame-train-station-adu.html

120 days in the hole!!