Broadway: New cost estimate, same old story

The song remains the same on the grade separation at Broadway only a lot more off-key than before.  I wrote this five years ago here:

One of the common questions I hear in town is "When are they going to fix the rest of Broadway?" meaning now that the bridge has been replaced, what about the rail crossing?  My standard response is "There isn't nearly enough money socked away to even start".

That refrain got even worse this week as the DJ reports:

The grade separation — designated as a top priority at last year’s city goal-setting — would separate the train tracks from the road to mitigate traffic, increase public safety and allow more than one train at the Broadway station. At the beginning of 2024, project costs were estimated at $325 million.

Now, however, Caltrain recently informed the city about significant increases to project costs, raising totals to $500 to $600 million for construction alone, Public Works Director Syed Murtuza said.

Aside from the usual, completely predictable, extreme increases in the cost of labor and materials, now we get to add the fact that with electrification of Caltrain we have to de-electrify the lines to do the construction for four hours at night.  Less construction time equals more project time equals higher costs.  Rinse and repeat.

Pleas from the city to complete the grade separation before Caltrain electrification went unanswered, Murtuza said. “It’s just utterly poor management and mismanagement on the part of the organization, and we saw it directly,” (Donna Colson) said.  She urged the city to realistically communicate with residents about the realities of the long-awaited project moving forward.

"Realistic" is our middle name here at the Voice.  No shovels will be hitting dirt in the foreseeable future, so we need to make lemonade.  Is it AI like noted here?  Is it just an underpass?  Do we try to get a reprieve from the state on our RHNA numbers so we can stop building giant residential cell blocks on Rollins that will change the traffic grade on the intersection from an "F" to an "F--"?   Just kidding, not "realistic", but a nice fantasy.  There are timing tweaks to the various signals that could make marginal improvements.  All we can really do is better traffic enforcement and hope the accident and fatality rates don't climb.

Comments

[Joe]

Holly Rusch at the DJ has assembled all of the numbers and history regarding the B'way rail crossing. Bottom Line? Just as I have written above.
 

Though it had been slow going at times — “why does it take from 2017 to almost 24 … to implement the design that the whole city agreed upon?” Colson said: $17 million had been committed from Burlingame, $24 million secured in county transportation sales tax money, $133 million in potential county sales tax funding and $85 million in hard-fought state funding had been promised for the future.
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Regarding Caltrain adding AI, new gates and signage
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While Burlingame is grateful for such additions, it doesn’t change the need for a grade separation, Goldman said.

“You have to get the cars and the trucks and the bikes and the people ... off the path of where the train is traveling,” she said. “You can’t paint your way out of it or signalize your way out of it. That certainly helps. It’ll help a lot. But the most important thing is to separate the roadway from the railway.”

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/1965-to-now-decades-add-huge-cost-to-rail-project-in-burlingame/article_625ffe42-e5d0-11ef-9e42-67dc1fb6912a.html?utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1739199633&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

[Peter Garrison]

Build the parts off site in Brisbane. Heavy lift helicopters and fit them together like a jigsaw puzzle.

Ask, “What would China or Elon do?” And get it done.

[Jennifer Pfaff]

The Boring Company- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGZFBETuHqk

[Joe]

The DJ basically repeated the article from last month, but with a very pointed quote from our mayor to spice things up a bit!:

The increase is due to a variety of factors, a large one being Caltrain’s inaccurate 2022 estimate, which was derived primarily from design, not construction, consultants. The cost has also increased due to the need to work around live electrified infrastructure, which was fully implemented in September 2024.

“That’s a $300 million scholarship to educate Caltrain on modern construction theory and planning,” Burlingame Mayor Peter Stevenson said. “They didn’t have the expertise to do this ... we told them to do this project before electrification because electrification adds time and cost, so the reality is, we don’t have confidence in that relationship structure.”

[Timothy Hooker]

Cost overruns article: https://www.propelleraero.com/blog/10-construction-project-cost-overrun-statistics-you-need-to-hear/

[Joe]

That is quite an indictment of project planning and execution! From the site:

Recent studies have found that, on average, nationwide construction projects exceed their budget by 16% at minimum—and often far more. Many lenders recommend including a 20% contingency right off the bat for cost overrun. Imagine a 20% salary increase, and you’ll have a good idea of what a significant expansion this is! And remember, this is an average across all projects, not a one-time overrun.

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High-speed rail will set a new, all time high benchmark----it could end up somewhere like 2,0000% over.

[Joe]

B'game is going back to the drawing board with a new $3.8M Sharpie. From the DJ:

City staff worked with the project’s partners, including Caltrain and the San Mateo County Transportation Authority, to get pricing for the redesign from $19.9 million to $15.3 million, $3.8 million of which will come from the city. The reduction reflects a $1 million decrease in the design fee and a $700,000 reduction in Caltrain’s costs.

----this paragraph doesn't make mathematical sense, but it doesn't matter right now---

There’s currently a $586 million funding gap on the project. If all the funding the city is lobbying for comes through — including $15 million from Burlingame, $280 million from the San Mateo County Transportation Authority, $110 million in state funding, as well as federal funding — that still leaves a gap of around $147 million.

In regards to the redesign, the city is putting barriers in place to ensure they aren’t financially blindsided again, Public Works Director Syed Murtuza said, including searching for an outside resource to peer-review Caltrain’s design estimations. Brownrigg seconded a desire to see new protocol for the design effort.