Gasoline prices: Get ready for more pain

After reading about our Air Resources Board move this month to tighten gasoline "standards" even more I was reminded of this post from 2015.  The California average was $3.22 back then and in February 2017, I noted the price of regular at the Peninsula Ave. Shell was $3.05.  With apologies to composer Mary Hopkin

Those were the days my friend
We thought they'd never end
We'd sing and drive forever and a day
We'd buy the fuel we choose
We'd fight and always cruise
For we were young and sure to have our way

Today regular at that Shell station is $4.99, 64% higher than 2017.  And we need to get ready for more pain at the pump as Calmatters writes about the November 8th CARB vote

The new rule’s potential effects on California fuel prices are largely unknown. The air board said today that oil companies typically already pass 8 to 10 cents per gallon of costs on to consumers because of the state’s fuel standard.  Environmentalists and consumer advocates opposed the new rules, warning the changes will boost alternative fuels — such as biofuels made from cow manure or soy beans — that may have limited environmental upsides, and will allow oil companies to stay in business because they can buy credits or switch to producing those fuels.

In an initial assessment released last year, the air board projected that the proposed new standard could potentially raise the per-gallon price of diesel by 59 cents and for gasoline, 47 cents, in 2025. Air board officials have since disavowed that estimate, writing last month that the analysis “should not be misconstrued as a prediction of the future credit price nor as a direct impact on prices at the pump.”

Oh, let's not "misconstrue" anything.  We just won't make any forecast.  Other estimates put the gas increase at 65 cents per gallon or higher.  Meanwhile over in EV world, where CARB would like to push all of us, the WSJ has a piece titled "The Withering Dream of a Cheap American Electric Car".  Tesla has backed-off building a $25,000 car and all the other, non-profitable car companies see no way to succeed making a cost-competitive version either.  The Lucid CEO notes

“That market is notorious because you get into mass manufacture—terrible, low margins,” he said of the low-price EVs. “To install the manufacturing base for millions of these units makes little sense to me.”

Abandoning the idea of a $25,000 car comes as a blow to those who were betting that the electrification of the automobile was on track to happen seemingly overnight—with EVs for every pocketbook replacing the tens of millions of vehicles on the roadways.

Get ready to pay more--probably a lot more--because 12 unelected, activist bureaucrats say so.  By the way, it pays well too for a part-time gig.  CARB Chair Liane Randolph is pulling down $278,876 in pay and benefits.  She's probably buying premium.

Comments

[Phinancier]

Nevermind a cheap electric car as that ain't gonna happen. You'll be lucky to get one that is only 10-20% more than the equivalent gas car. And when it breaks down on the road good luck finding a tow truck driver willing to deal with it.

[Barking Dog]

I paid $2.89 at a Costco in Boise on Tue before our drive home to Reno. Filled up at Costco today in Reno $3.79

[JP]

The politicians talk out of both sides of their mouths. Affordable this affordable that. Then they do everything they can to make something everybody uses expensive. Then they start some fake commission to figure it out. Sick.

[Joe]

More green pork on the horizon? Paid for by us paying more for goods and services that use oil and gas in their supply chain--which is pretty much everything.

California could offer electric vehicle rebates if Trump eliminates tax credit, Newsom says

SACRAMENTO — California could offer rebates for electric vehicle purchases if the incoming Trump administration eliminates a federal tax credit for people who buy electric cars, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday.

Newsom, a Democrat, will propose creating a new version of the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, which was phased out in 2023 after funding 594,000 cars and saving 456 million gallons of fuel, Newsom’s office said.

But a budget shortfall could complicate California’s resistance efforts. Early budget projections show the state could face a $2 billion deficit next year, according to a report released last week by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.

Money for the new rebate system could come from the state’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which is funded by polluters under the state’s cap-and-trade program, the governor’s office said.

[Emile Beecham]

Where is the outcry for Affordable Driving. These buffoons seem to think housing needs to be affordable and to heck with everything else.

Toll Authority approves measure to further increase Bay Area bridge tolls starting in 2026
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission approved a measure that would raise tolls on Bay Area drivers commuting along the state-owned bridges by at least 50 cents.

[Joe]

Our governor is backtracking a bit on demonizing Big Oil per the WSJ:

What will California Gov. Gavin Newsom do when he doesn’t have oil companies to kick around anymore? The possibility is suddenly occurring to him after Valero announced last week that it will close a major Bay Area refinery and signaled another in Los Angeles was at risk, auguring even higher gasoline prices.

Valero said it will “idle, restructure, or cease refining operations” at its Benicia refinery by April 2026. The refiner cited uncertainty related to “current or contemplated legal, political or regulatory developments that are adverse to or restrict refining and marketing operations.” Translation: We’re under attack by Sacramento.

Ditto Phillips 66’s plan to close a major Southern California refinery after Mr. Newsom signed a bill to let the state Energy Commission micromanage refineries.

The closure of the Valero and Phillips 66 refineries will eliminate 20% of California’s already constrained refining capacity over the next 12 months, increasing the risk of supply shortages and price spikes. Think gas prices are high now in the Golden State at an average $4.80 a gallon? Just wait. All of this plus taxes explain why California’s gas prices are on average $1.64 a gallon higher than nationwide. The Valero and Phillips 66 closures could lift prices by another $1 a gallon by some estimates.

Enter Mr. Newsom, who on Monday urged his Energy Commission to mend fences with oil companies. It’s essential “refiners continue to see the value in serving the California market” and to “reinforce the State’s openness to a collaborative relationship and our firm belief that Californians can be protected from price spikes and refiners can profitably operate in California—a market where demand for gasoline will still exist for years to come,” he wrote.
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Aside from a press release and a tweet, what is the plan?

[Joe]

As usual you get more insightful California news from one Alyssa Finley article in the WSJ than you get reading a month's worth of the local reporters' work. Today, she is discussing the deflection and backpedaling among California Democrat politicians pondering the shuttering of two state refineries. Six weeks have passed since my last comment--nothing has changed:

Democratic lawmakers in Sacramento experienced a political awakening of sorts after two major refineries recently announced they will shut down. A study last month by a University of Southern California business school professor projected that gasoline prices could rise to more than $8 a gallon because of the constricted supply.

Now the lawmakers who backed the Newsom climate diktats that brought about the refinery shutdowns are up in arms. “We have a crisis on our hands that may have been self-created by the actions perhaps taken by the state, by regulators,” Assemblyman David Alvarez huffed at a legislative hearing last month with the governor’s energy regulators.
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"may have been"????
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Assemblyman Mike Gipson mused that increasing fuel imports once the refineries are closed could increase pollution. California Air Resources Board Chairman Liane Randolph concurred. But when asked whether the board considered costs of its regulations, Ms. Randolph demurred: “We don’t analyze a retail cost” of gasoline or “specific costs to specific consumers.”

After the hearing, Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains demanded Ms. Randolph’s resignation: “CARB has been given so much power, they were prepared to ban gas and diesel cars and trucks single-handedly. It is outrageous that the director would pursue such policies without even trying to analyze the impact on prices.”

Only last week Democratic lawmakers voted down GOP legislation that would block a new California Air Resources Board regulation, set to take effect next month, that independent economists estimate will increase prices by 65 to 85 cents a gallon. After abetting Mr. Newsom’s war on fossil fuels, they are running for political cover as the economic and political fallout hits.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, another Democratic candidate for governor, wrote in a recent Bakersfield Californian op-ed: “We shut down our own production—some of the cleanest in the world—and outsource the environmental destruction to places with weaker protections and no union labor. That’s not climate leadership. That’s climate hypocrisy.”
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Welcome to the party, Antonio