Peeling back the headline that statewide population rose 0.17% for the first time in years, yields the news that the Bay Area continues to shrink. Are you wondering why we need to tax the people who remain, to the tune of a $20 billion bond, for "affordable" housing in the Bay Area? Me too. The original news reports put it at $10 billion, but a few billion more here and a few there and voilà--it's $20 billion per the MTC news release. As we noted here, the ink isn't even dry on the measly $6 billion bond that Newsom just rammed through.
Let's go to the tale of the tape:
A net of about 114,000 people immigrated legally into the state from abroad during 2023, up from a net 90,000 people in 2022 and near pre-pandemic levels.
So, trying to outbuild the global desire to move here is a fool's errand most likely to harm those that are still here
Net domestic migration was still negative, with the state losing an estimated 92,000 people last year from internal migration, but that was far less than the approximate 356,000 net loss in 2021.
And the local story was one of shrinkage with slight growth in the "outskirts" of the Bay Area where there is room for projects like California Forever that would be privately funded and developed.
Alameda County -0.5%
San Mateo County -0.5%
Marin County -0.4%
Sonoma County -0.3%
Santa Clara County flat
Napa County +0.4%
Contra Costa County +0.1%
Solano County +0.2%
San Francisco +0.1%
Let's put additional big bonds for "affordable" housing on the back burner, nay back in the fridge, until we see how the regulatory clubs like SB9, builders' remedies, buying up hotels and motels for subsidized housing and Newsom's six bill work out. As Jerry Seinfeld said to George regarding the shrinkage, "I think they know".
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