The feared attack on roof-top solar has materialized. We covered it in the proposal stage in December 2022 here. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. One has to go through a lot of mental gyrations to think this is good for the environment, grid security or the threatened move to electric heat and appliances in homes. The Ninth Circuit Court has stunted the later move for now, but look what has been done to people's desire for some degree of grid independence:
Bay Area rooftop-solar businesses are reeling from a statewide change that gutted compensation for homeowners returning surplus power to the electrical grid, causing applications for new solar to plunge to a 10-year low and leading to layoffs in an industry that had expected to lead the vanguard toward more sustainable, environmentally friendly energy use.
Owners of residential solar systems had been receiving enough utility credits to pay for most systems in seven years, industry representatives said, but for systems ordered after April 15, 2023, it will take 11 years. Residents with systems predating the change will continue to receive the same compensation.
“They clobbered the economics,” said Barry Cinnamon, owner of rooftop-solar company Cinnamon Energy Systems in Los Gatos.
Sales of rooftop-solar setups have plummeted about 80% since the commission shrank by 75% the compensation new solar owners get for surplus power, the California Solar & Storage Association said. The group estimated 2,700 jobs have been lost in the Bay Area, of 17,000 statewide. Nearly 13 million homes in California have solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.
There are varying estimates of how many California homes have solar. I think that 13 million is a typo or they are counting multi-family differently. Another estimate puts it at 6.3 million and says that is 45% of all homes. Other estimates put it closer to 40%. Either way, there is a long way to go. With the much longer payback period the rate of adoption will stay slower except in new construction where it started to be required in 2020. Now we can expect new housing prices to go up even faster than before. What a stupid move.
For the "We are governed by idiots" file: This was 110% predictable. From CalMatters:
The state’s decision has caused consumer demand for residential solar to plummet since the new rate took effect. Solar companies say they’ve been shoved to the edge of a cliff, forcing them to lay off workers or even shut down.
In all, about 82% fewer customers applied for solar connections from May through November of last year compared to a year earlier. Fewer than 4,000 customers applied in November, the last month with available data.
The new rule’s impact on the solar industry has been immediate. As many as 17,000 solar workers in California might have lost their jobs by the end of last year, according to industry estimates.
It’s not just homes: The utilities commission in November voted to expand the lower payment rates to commercial businesses and multifamily homes that install solar panels.
A spokesperson for the Public Utilities Commission did not answer CalMatters’ questions about the impact of the recent steep declines in solar projects or the job losses in the industry and declined to make anyone available for an interview.
Solar industry executives say California’s rate changes are affecting low- and middle-income homeowners, where rooftop solar had begun to gain inroads. The Berkeley Lab reported that in 2022 about 45% of solar adopters nationwide were below a threshold used to define low and moderate income. In California, household incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 are the largest segment of solar customers, the report found.
As the solar market has matured, costs have come down, allowing homeowners of modest means to adopt solar systems and lower their utility bills.
“Rooftop solar is not just the wealthy homeowners anymore,” said state Sen. Josh Becker, a San Mateo Democrat. “Central Valley people are suffering from extreme heat. The industry has been making great strides in low-income communities. This (utilities commission decision) makes it harder.”
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One could ask what Becker did about this back when the CPUC was debating the move? And what will he do now?
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You can click through to see the impact on people of color, etc that the author, Julie Cart, interviews.
https://calmatters.org/environment/climate-change/2024/01/california-solar-demand-plummets/
Posted by: Joe | February 18, 2024 at 01:16 PM