All-electric hidden consequences

I find the forced march to an all-electric future interesting on a number of fronts as you can read in the Climate and Power categories.  Some days reading the general business news seems like a session of high school chemistry or geography class.  What flavor of lithium will be the most plentiful and cost effective, where is it mined and where refined?  Answer:  China refines the huge majority today.  What U.S. projects are stalled?  An Idaho cobalt project is 30+ years old and still has not produced an ounce of cobalt.  China also dominates the cobalt processing market.  And the price of cobalt is volatile---dropping now because of lack of Chinese domestic demand in a slow economy that stymies the mining.  As the Journal notes

Economists and executives warn similar challenges lie ahead in the race to build renewable-energy infrastructure. Many of the richest deposits of commodities required lie elsewhere, while firms extracting them in the U.S. or its allies face higher environmental standards, greater labor costs and limited interest from Wall Street.

It has created a puzzle as the Biden administration tries to accelerate electric-vehicle adoption that is key to curbing America’s appetite for fossil fuels. The president’s climate law will offer tax credits to buy models with fewer components and minerals from China, but some automakers warn that many cars won’t qualify.

Meanwhile the business news is also full of hidden consequences.  Ford reported earnings this week and raised its estimated losses on its EV product line this year from $3 billion to $4.5 billion while still reporting a good quarter overall.  How you ask?  Because the base gas-powered products, especially SUVs and F-150s, are funding the EV losses.  People are buying them left-and-right while the EV line runs at a negative 100%+ gross margin.  There's no word about how the Spin bike unit is doing, but Lyft is struggling to find a buyer for its e-bike division.

Daily Journal editor-in-chief Jon Mays stuck his toe in the debate about how far, how much and how fast to go all-electric

Transitioning to an all-electric future is a pretty big lift and I have gotten the feeling much of the energy behind the proponents is shoot first, ask questions later — especially when it comes to the cost and details for the individual. Talking about the cost of new appliances is one thing, talking about the cost of a new electrical panel or an electric service is quite another. It’s the latter that can add up to tens of thousands pretty quick.

There are even more unintended consequences than the direct costs.  Roofers, dry wall installers, painters are salivating.  And reliability is still an issue--just ask the merchants on B'way which absorbed the latest in a long string of power outages last week.  The moral of the story?  Get a generator and/or battery-backed up solar.  I am having my batteries installed next week and will let you know how it goes.  It ain't cheap, but it will be reliable.

Comments

[Joe]

I saw a fun TV ad last night from Putnam Ford San Mateo highlighting the gas-powered F-150s, Broncos, Mustangs, etc that are on sale as "All Models Must Go". The Mustang Mach-e was an afterthought right at the end.

[Paloma Ave]

The Biden administration unveiled a new regulatory proposal Friday that would introduce a new tax on the fossil fuel industry, punishing producers that exceed a certain level of methane emissions.

The damn democrats just can't stop themselves from shoving electric only down our throats!

[Spurinna]

Because so many of my conspiracy theories have come true concerning the crafty democrats I’ve had to form new worries…

If they keep oil prices up by limiting supplies, then Putin makes more money to fight Ukraine and the party in power keeps people scared and distracted while investments in Raytheon, etc, pay off nicely.

After the election, with a new party in power, we can see oil prices dip, Russia falter and peace possible.

[resident]

German electric car sales fell by HALF in December. Plug-in hybrids fell by 74%! Government subsidies subsided and voila!