The Burlingame Voice

BNN and the City Review Storm "Learnings"

Did you get the 6am wake-up call from Pacifica yesterday?  I wasn't in town, but I hear it rang 3.5 times and was loud.  Another earthquake prep reminder.  As if we don't have enough to worry about with atmospheric rivers queued up like floats in a parade.  Saturday morning, the City and Burlingame Neighborhood Network co-sponsored a meeting for residents to learn (re-learn?) how we handled the last big storms.  I say re-learn because by a show of hands nearly all of the roughly 75 people there had previously participated in a BNN block drill.

The newly promoted city arborist, Rich Holtz, was the star of the show as much of the content and questions revolved around trees and what it takes to get downed or leaning trees removed.  There is often coordination with PG&E to ensure the lines are de-energized.  My question during the Q&A about how city staff (aside from Park & Rec tree staff) interact with PG&E didn't get much of an answer.  It would be good to know who at the city is "in the know" in real time about power outages by virtue of having a clear contact at PG&E and the ability to update residents beyond what's on PGE.com.

The city is on a four-year cycle for inspecting all city trees.  There was a small amount of Blue Gum Euc-bashing, but the SF Comicle provided a timely defense of Eucs the next day here:

In the Bay Area, the trees that most commonly fall are oaks, eucalyptus, cypress and Monterey pines, said consulting arborist Kevin Hostert. That matches information from the Western Tree Failure Database, which collects data from professional tree managers largely from the Bay Area, said principal investigator Larry Costello.

Coast live oaks and Monterey pines are prone to fungal infection and root rot, and certain types of eucalyptus trees have “pretty shallow” roots, Hostert said. But Hostert and Costello emphasized that these species are not necessarily more dangerous — instead, more of them may fall simply because they are relatively common.

There is that Voice principle again:  a numerator without a denominator is useless information.

BPD and BFD were well-represented and added a lot of detail about how many 911 calls came in.  For instance, on March 14, 119 calls came in, mostly in a three-hour period, as the heart of the storm hit B'game.  The fact that faux 911 calls from landlines and burglar alarms mistakenly go off when power is restored was news to me.  And they all have to be answered.

For me, the highpoint of the session from a learning standpoint was the introduction of the Zello phone app and network by Rik Kasuga of BNN.  Zello adds walkie-talkie capabilities to your cell phone allowing for group calls and direct person-to-person contact.  Assuming the cell networks are up, this can be an effect way for BNN members to communicate in an emergency.  More on that later as I get into it.

The official recap is here and here are the presenters in the Rec Center on a beautiful Saturday morning in B'game talking about a rough couple of days.

 

Time to Disband the Air Quality Board

Some letter writer to the WSJ gets credit for this quip:  "The two things government does best are nothing and overreact".  He was writing about the Silicon Valley Bank bailout, but it fits perfectly with the gas-heater-haters at the Bay Area Air Quality Management District.  I think it's time we disbanded the BAAQMD, fired its staff (who aren't working in the public interest), and send the city council people on the Board back to their cities to Do The Job They Were Elected To Do; which is to make good local decisions.

The back story is a bunch of elected officials, who collectively probably couldn't pass a college-level Physics test, have decided that we shall not have gas water heaters or gas furnaces.  No soup for you even if your current set-up has been in existence for decades, works flawlessly during blackouts and costs way less than the alternative.  The Chronicle attempted to quantify the cost of complying:

The new regulations prohibit the sale or installation of water heaters and furnaces that emit nitrogen oxides after 2027 and 2029, respectively.  Electric water heaters and heat pumps are generally more expensive than their gas counterparts. People in older houses may face additional costs such as electrical panel upgrades, ductwork, rewiring or permits, though there are thousands of dollars of rebates and tax credits available at the federal, state and local levels to offset some of the cost differential. 

The cost of installing a heat pump can vary widely, from $7,000 to more than $20,000, according to various studies and data collected from completed projects. Costs for electric water heaters can range from $2,000 to $7,000. Staff from the Bay Area Air Quality Management District, the agency that adopted the zero nitrogen oxides regulations, presented average compliance costs at its approval hearing last week: $8,030 for a heat pump and $2,820 for an electric water heater. 

The estimates come from a 2021 study published by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which collected total cost data from 1,739 projects in 15 states, including California, adjusted to the 2019 dollar.   The same study also published average installation costs for gas appliances: $5,096 for a gas furnace and $1,972 for a gas water heater.   Some people and groups have disputed these numbers from their own experience or by pointing to regional data that show much higher installation costs for heat pumps and electric water heaters.

They had California-specific costs (still not Bay Area-specific costs), but chose not to present them at the hearing before the vote--not that it would have mattered:

As part of the approval process, BAAQMD generated a socioeconomic impact analysis that included higher cost estimates from a 2019 Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) study specifically looking at California: between $7,000 to $20,000 of all-in costs for a heat pump depending on the type, and from $3,000 to $4,700 for a heat pump water heater.

The E3 study assumed that pre-1978 homes would need to upgrade to a panel of 200 amps when switching to both a heat pump and water heater, and estimated this would cost $4,256 for single-family homes and $2,744 for low-rise multifamily homes.

And there are higher costs from another data source and one person who highlights yet another unaccounted-for cost--TAXES:

Out of 9,895 heat pumps installed with Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost before incentives was $18,842, with an average total incentive of $3,433. For the 1,334 heat pump water heaters that received Tech CLEAN funding, the average total project cost was $7,054, with an average total incentive of $3,617.

The Tech CLEAN data tracks most closely to Redwood City resident Kent Holubar’s experience installing a heat pump last summer. Installation of Holubar’s Mitsubishi heat pump cost $17,875, with another $1,865 required for permits, bringing the total cost to $19,740, Holubar shared with The Chronicle.

Holubar had wanted to make the upgrade for a while and was able to do so with part of his mother’s estate after she passed away. But after the installation, Holubar received an annoying surprise: Holubar’s 1953 home was assessed at $10,000 more than it was before he installed the heat pump because of its air conditioning properties — adding extra property taxes every year, Holubar said.

Also lost in the ozone of government cost studies are the things I mentioned in my letter to the B'game city council and in the comments on the prior Natural Gas: Follow the Science? post.  Things like removing the old pipes and vents, drywall repair and paint, roof repairs to fill the old holes, pouring concrete pads for the new equipment--the list goes on and on.  BUT the big cost that none of these studies capture is the time and effort of the homeowner.  It will likely be enormous and growing worse as the deadlines loom and pass.  No more calling the water heater guy and answering one question:  Do you want a 40 gallon or 50 gallon unit?  Soon it will be "A Project" with all of the typical project management expenses in time, effort and money.   Better to disband the Air Quality Board and leave people to transition if and when they want.

Getting into a UC from B'game

The Comicle is trying, trying to bring some bits of data to bear on its news articles.  The latest initiative looks at UC admissions rates by high school using a graphing tool here.

The rates are for admission into the 2022 fall semester, which The Chronicle paired with each school’s senior enrollment during the 2021-22 school year.  About a quarter of public-school seniors in our dataset (27%) applied to the UC system last year. Among them, about two-thirds were admitted (66%), and slightly under half of admitted students (48%) enrolled.

The BHS and Mills numbers are most of interest to us:

From BHS, 228 of 447 seniors applied or 51%.  145 of those 228 were admitted for a 64% admission rate.

From Mills, the percentages are notably higher.  166 of 291 seniors applied (57%) and 123 of the 166 were admitted for a 74% admission rate.

I'm sure we have a few readers who are active in the system now who can opine on this differential.  I've been away from it for too long to have any real insights.

Podcast: Hear About the Voice in Our Own Words

This is one of the most exciting posts in the history of the Burlingame Voice because it is about the history of the Voice.  Man-about-town and now podcaster-about-town, Mark Lucchesi, who we wrote about two years ago when he "retired" from Mollie Stone's, has trained his microphone on Russ and me.  You can listen to a number of "Mark at the Mic" podcasts that he has gone for the Burlingame Historical Society by searching that moniker on YouTube.

Russ and I were happy to be asked and had a blast talking about the Voice past and present for about 45 minutes.  The direct link to our podcast is HERE.  You will hear about how we started, who was involved early on, what each of us thinks about some local issues (hint:  we don't always agree and that is half the fun).  I describe some of the "Principles of the Voice" but I didn't get to all of them during our conversation, so here's the list as it sits currently:

• Respect the Law of Unintended Consequences
• There are Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (popularized by Mark Twain, maybe Benjamin Disraeli)
•               Corollary:  A numerator without the denominator is useless
• There is no Free Lunch, somebody is paying.
• Always do cost/benefit assessments
• Does it pass the “Shoe on the other foot” test?
• People get interested when the pothole is in front of their house.
• A cat seldom changes its stripes.
•               Corollary: “When someone shows you who they are believe them” Maya Angelou

The session was also video recorded, so you may get to see our mugs in the future if and when that version is posted to YouTube.  In the meantime, enjoy the podcast. 

B'game Traffic Enforcement - No clear trend

I'm sticking by my assertion from last November made in the post titled "Does the whole County need remedial driving class?" because things do not appear to have improved.  As Sergeant Phil Esterhaus said on Hill Street Blues at the start of every shift "Let's be careful out there".  He was talking to the officers; I refer to the officers and drivers and pedestrians and cyclists.

Back in January we did the annual round-up of crime in town here.  Now BPD has made available the annual traffic enforcement numbers, so here they are:

                                                         2017      2018      2019      2020       2021      2022 

Reported Vehicle Accidents                  317        324        300        200       199        252

Traffic Stops                                      5,003      4,620      5.981    3,413    4,548      3,567 

Moving Citations Issued                      2,615      2,448      3,234    1,421     2,264     1,856

Following one of the principles of the Voice (i.e.  "A numerator without a denominator is useless"), I confirmed with the Chief that officer hours-on-the-street are essentially the same over the seven years.  The only real conclusion I can make from the stats is the Covid lockdown years led to a 30-50% decrease in accidents, stops and citations.  The rebound last year was fairly slow as well.

It would be easy to attribute the numbers to more working-from-home, crazy gas prices, kids postponing getting their licenses, or whatever else you can think of, but they show stability--at least in B'game.  The denominator we don't have is miles-driven in town.  Update:  A reader requested some further breakdown of the types of citations in the total, so BPD has been able to peel the onion a bit.  Here are some key categories:

• Distracted driving (cellphones): 31%
• Speed:  19%
• Stop signs:  13%
• Failure to obey a sign other than a stop sign (i.e. no left turn sign, no right on red sign, etc.):  9%
• Failure to yield to a pedestrian:  2%
• Vehicles driving in bike lanes:  2%
• Failure to yield while turning:  1%

              

High-Cost Rail - Part 159 Costs spiral out of control...again

Dan Walters and Ralph Vartabedian, both of Calmatters.org, are on the watch over the high-cost rail boondoggle as it claims to "create" tons of jobs (Walters) and as the costs just continue to boggle the mind and veer even further from budget reality (Vartabedian).  Here's some of the numbers from the latter piece

The headline reads: New cost estimate for high-speed rail puts California bullet train $100 billion in the red.  That's "in the red" which heretofore has been my working number for the whole budget.  Now it's just the missing billions!

The latest report from the California High-Speed Rail Authority projects costs for the initial segment at $35 billion, which exceeds secured funding by $10 billion. Other segments of the system are likely to have their projected costs increase, too. The state hopes it will get more federal aid.

New cost figures issued in an update report from the California High-Speed Rail Authority show that the plan to build the 171-mile initial segment has shot up to a high of $35 billion, exceeding secured funding by $10 billion.  The cost of that partial system is now higher than the $33 billion estimate for the entire 500-mile Los Angeles to San Francisco system when voters approved a bond in 2008.  What’s worse, that full system cost is set at up to $128 billion in the update, leaving a total funding gap of more than $100 billion for politicians to ponder....The $128 billion price tag does not include cost updates for two separate segments between Palmdale and Anaheim

This nightmare is apparently lost on one UC Berkeley law professor

Ethan Elkind, who watches California transportation issues as director of the climate change program at UC Berkeley’s law school, said the mounting problems cloud the project’s future.  “It is in jeopardy,” Elkind said. “It is dicey. There is no path forward for the full Los Angeles to San Francisco system. It is important that they get something done.”

The only thing that must get done is to kill this turkey before we blow through enough money to solve tens of serious infrastructure issues.  A smarter UC Berkeley guy piles on the tale of woe

Bill Ibbs, a retired UC Berkeley civil engineer who serves on the group and has consulted on international high speed rail projects, said he is concerned about the lack of attention to engineering risks.  “They don’t directly address the hard core engineering issues,” Ibbs said, particularly the 38 miles of mountain tunnels that are planned for Southern California alone. “What are the major engineering challenges that lie in front of you and why aren’t you talking about them in this report?”

The piece goes on to question the ridership forecasts and lays out the funding morass in more detail.  Click through if you can stand it. 

Paying Thrice for the Same Road

With the arrival of the express toll lanes on 101 through B'game, gas powered vehicle drivers now get to pay three times for the same road- regular taxes that are supposed to pay for infrastructure, gas taxes of $0.539 per gallon that are supposed to pay for roads and toll charges.  Who knows where that money is going.  The Merc reports

San Francisco Bay Area motorists on Friday saw a new span of toll-based express lanes open on Highway 101, the latest move to ease congestion on one of the region’s most frustrating commutes.

The opening — from Whipple Avenue in Redwood City to Interstate 380 in South San Francisco — means one of California’s busiest corridors now has 22 miles of express lanes that are free to use for carpoolers carrying at least three people and give other drivers the option to pay for faster freeway speeds.

And of course, there is this "hack"

Q: Why aren’t the lanes reducing congestion for most drivers?

A: One of the central benefits of express lanes is that they incentivize carpoolers, thereby taking vehicles off the roads and freeing up traffic for everybody. Cars with at least three people ride for free, and vehicles carrying two people get a 50% discount. But as express lanes roll out around the region, it’s unclear if the system has encouraged more carpooling, while it is clear that it has encouraged drivers to cheat the system.

An early study from the MTC found that on I-880 in August 2020, the vast majority of drivers claiming to have three people in the car were lying. About 28% of drivers set their Fastrak responder to indicate three occupants, while only 2% of cars were carrying three people, the study found.  “It’s really expensive to do enforcement,” said Goodwin. “We’ve got a lot of work to do to still close the gaps.”

And also of course there is the obligatory "equity" bow

Q: These lanes sound expensive. Are there any options for low-income people?

A: Yes, for San Mateo County adults who are making $78,300 or less a year, there is a one-time $100 stipend for express lanes or public transit rides.

You can bet this program costs huge bundles of cash to design, operate, monitor and dispense a C-note.  MTC admits it barely works and is hard to enforce, but they need to expand it.

Snowy Memories

After reading about the incredible snow levels in California, a regular Voice reader forwarded a photo of the famous 1962 Burlingame snowfall.  Here she is with her sister and an awesome snowman!  She notes that the houses shown are still there (another wonder) and challenges readers to identify the street.

Update:  This photo arrived from the Burlingame Historical Society after the initial post.  It is credited to Sister Marilyn Gouailhardou

In case you haven't been following the snow news, it's crazy out here.  I'm standing on the walkway to my Tahoe place yesterday--and I'm 5'8".  It's snowing now with another 2' expected.