San Mateo County: By the Numbers

The 2020 census data dropped this week and with it we get a view of how our County has been growing and changing.  The Comicle lists the numbers for San Mateo County as shown below; with the Change column added by me because that is what any numerate person would be interested in seeing without having to calculate it themselves.

                                        2010                2020            Change

Population                       718,451            764,442        +45,991

% Age 16+                           77.8%             79.8%           +2.0%

Then there is the constant need to highlight Ethnicity

White                                   42.3%            36.1%            -6.2% 

Hispanic                               25.4%            25%               -0.4%

Black                                    2.6%              1.9%             -0.7%

Asian                                    24.5%            29.8%            +5.3%

Other                                    5.2%              7.2%             +2.0%

Now a bit of analysis.  The ten-year growth in population is 6.4% which equates to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.622%.  That is a little more than half the growth rate of Alameda County (11.4%) and a shade below our southern neighbor Santa Clara County at 8.7%.  I'm not sure I trust the SF County number of 8.5% given the exodus accelerated after the start of the census.

Given that we have the exact same water storage capacity as we had ten years ago, I would have to conclude that any "crisis"-driven move to add lots more high-density housing on top of the massive amount that is already approved and/or being built is misguided.  There is more data to come soon on how much more efficient we are getting in our water usage, but taking 6.4% up to 8.7% or 11.4% without a comprehensive plan is crazy.

Comments

[Pining for Willie]

I wish the Chronicle would bring back Willie Brown on Sundays. The guy who replaced him is terrible. With Willie you knew you were getting 80% of the straight scoop and 20% left-wing spin. The new guy is the opposite of that.

[Jennifer Pfaff]

Remember when they (briefly) took the "pink" section away and turned it white (or something nondescript)?? Well, it does kind of feel like that :(

[MBGA]

Hispanic -0.4%
Asian +5.3% ("not that there's anything wrong with that")

How does anybody take any official stats seriously....???

[MBGA]

And speaking of the credibility of official stats, let me make a prediction here:

Gavin is going to win by a few thousand votes found a few days after the polls close.

[MBGA]

And this is what we are up against:

https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/democrat-women-steal-california-recall-ballots-caught-on-video/

[HMB]

Like Citizen Free Press is a reliable source of news...
It's unfortunate what nonsense people are posting on the Burlingame Voice these days.

[Just Sayin']

I bet the candidate named Denver Stoner does very well. Just sayin'

[Christopher Cooke]

Unfortunately, Joe, I think ethnicity has been “highlighted” in this country since the day it was founded, e.g. 3/5ths compromise, Chinese Exclusion Act, racially restrictive covenants in deeds, recent voter “reform” legislation, Confederate monuments, Tucker Carlson nightly monologues about whites being “ replaced” by minorities, country clubs that still engage in discrimination

[resident]

Are you in favor of all of those things? Or do eight wrongs make a right?

[MBGA]

well, let's see.... yesterday I read a story on citizensfreepress about a guy being found with a gun, drugs, a box of recall ballots in the back of his car. That gosh darn citizensfreepress. Such nonsense.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/torrance-police-find-300-unopened-recall-ballots-with-gun-and-drugs-in-sleeping-mans-car/ar-AANEizz

[HMB was right]

Your earlier link and the MSN one highlight the gap (more like a chasm) between real news versus propaganda masquerading as news. MSN states the facts and provides supporting quotes and context. The rag accuses the folks on video of being Democrats with no evidence whatsoever. By referencing the Torrance issue (with no additional info), the rag is hoping its GQP readers will conclude the incidents are linked.

[HMB]

https://news.stanford.edu/2019/11/18/high-school-students-unequipped-spot-fake-news/

[HMB]

More recent: https://ed.stanford.edu/news/national-study-high-school-students-digital-skills-paints-worrying-portrait-stanford

[Joe]

A piece in the WSJ today causes me to double back to the race/ethnicity data. It is titled:

How the Census Misleads on Race

A new ‘diversity index’ and a subtle change in a question have resulted in an undercount of whites.

The most common reaction to the release of the 2020 census was summed up in the headline “Census Data show the number of white people fell.” The data show the number of whites declining by 8.6%.

The racial identity of Hispanics is especially confusing because the census asks about “Hispanic, Latino or Spanish origin” separately from race. In the 2010 census, 53% of those who said they were of Hispanic origin checked off only “white,” a 58% increase in numbers from 2000. That rise in white Hispanics helped account for the increase in the number of whites from the prior census. But in the 2020 census, a mere 20.3% of Hispanics checked off only “white,” contributing to the 8.6% decline in the total number of people identifying only as white.

That dramatic change probably stemmed not from a shift in social consciousness or demographics, but from a subtle change in the 2020 question about race. In 2010 the census asked respondents to check off whether they were white, black or African-American, American Indian or Alaska Native, various varieties of Asian or Pacific Islander, and “some other race.” They may check off as many race boxes as are applicable.

But in 2020 the census asked respondents who checked off “white” to specify their nationality: “Print, for example, German, Irish, Italian, Lebanese, Egyptian, etc.” No Spanish-speaking nationality was listed. That likely created the impression that Hispanic was another race, notwithstanding the previous question’s disclaimer that “Hispanic origins are not races.”

Thus, many Hispanics who would have checked off white alone in 2010 may have checked “white” and “some other race” in 2020. It is very possible that if the census hadn’t changed the race question in 2020, the number of “whites” might not have declined at all or declined only slightly. The number certainly wouldn’t have fallen 8.6%.
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Bottom line: It's best to take these statistics with a small grain of salt.

[Evan Adams]

Burlingame Water Demand:
2010 1,437 mil gal, 29,450 people
2020 1,271 mil gal, 32,407 people

A net drop in demand even after adding ~3000 people.

"It is estimated that the potable water demand will be approximately 1,721 MG in 2045 within the Burlingame service area, which is a 35% increase relative to the actual 2020 water demand of 1,271 MG. Over the same period, population is estimated to increase by 24% and jobs are expected to increase by 32% in Burlingame."

Jobs to housing balance Burlingame. Your job growth is eating your water.

[Joe]

It is nice to see I am not the only person reading the draft of the 2020 Urban Water Management Plan update. Evan Adams' quote is from p. 32 of the plan. There is a lot of nuance to be considered before I can agree with the last bit though.

It could easily be a matter of BOTH as well as some other factors. I plan to do a more comprehensive review of the UWMP soon.

[MBGA]

A little followup to the posting I made about the arrest of a guy in Torrance that was found with a box of recall ballots in his car.
I contacted the Torrance police department and asked what happened to that case. I got back this:
"Good Morning Sir, This case is currently being investigated by our Special Investigations Division in partnership with the U.S. Postal Service and the LA County District Attorney Public Integrity Unit."

What are the odds that we will ever hear anything about this.

We will not have a working democracy until we get rid of mail-in ballots and require voter ID, and of course punish people for this type of crime to a degree nobody would ever even consider doing this. This is not a victimless crime.