High-Cost Rail- Part 153 Bait and Railroad Switch

The never ending saga of high-cost rail cash bleeding away in stunning amounts continues unabated.  But there is new news on a bait and switch on the actual construction as reported by the Fresno Bee yesterday.  Here are the lowlights

The authority, (Rail Authority CFO Brian) Annis said, has already exhausted most of its other sources of money for the Madera-to-Shafter work, for which the cost is now estimated at about $13.8 billion. That new estimate is about $1.3 billion more than what was forecast a year ago by the agency.

The quarterly cap-and-trade auctions have generally amounted to an average of about $180 million for the high-speed rail authority, Annis said. But the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic knocked the May 2020 auction down to only about $6 million. That auction, and two subsequent auctions in August and November, cost the agency about $288 million in projected cap-and-trade income, officials estimate.

You have to love the use of the verb "cost" here.  The quote of the year so far is

“Hoping that the federal government will come in and save your asses is not a business plan,” said David Schonbrunn, president of the nonprofit Transportation Solutions Defence and Education Fund, or TRANSDEF.

But here is the bait and switch on construction

Additionally, the business plan now calls for building a single set of tracks, instead of two, along most of the 119-mile stretch. (CEO Brian) Kelly said one set of tracks would allow for the testing of train sets and other systems before early passenger operations commence between Bakersfield and Merced in about 2029.

Kelly said building only one set of tracks as an initial phase reflects the agency’s ability to construct what it has money to achieve, and could persist even into passenger operations along the route. “We believe we can meet all the operating requirements” with one set of tracks along with sections of passing tracks, Kelly told board members Tuesday.

Imagine if Caltrain only had one track end-to-end with some passing track sections along the way and was supposed to run four or five times as many trains as it does now.  And was supposed to run them at 120 mph.

Comments

[Mom]

I hope Newsom will give the highway 1 washout below Big Sur as much money and workers as high-speed rail. Fixing 100 yards of scenic highway that supports a billion dollars of tourist money according to the Chronicle seems like a better investment than the rail.

[Phinancier]

A billion here, a billion there. Pretty soon you are talking about real money. Apologies to Everett Dirksen.

[Wunderkind]

Recall Newsom.
Cox has said he will end HSR on day one.

[Everything's Jake]

HSR is a vampire zombie! Already billions have been wasted and the Dems in Sacramento want to spend more? Recall Newsom and elect fiscally responsible politicians, regardless of party affiliation. Thank you for letting me vent :)

[Joe]

Here is a bit of Dan Walters Calmatters column:

Let’s assume that the new plan becomes reality. The 119-mile section now under construction becomes a “test bed,” it’s extended to 171 miles (with only a single track) and the state then leases it to a private or quasi-private operator so that passenger service can begin.

Is that worth the $20-plus billion that such a limited system would cost? Would it even attract enough passengers to cover its operating costs without the subsidies that the 2008 ballot measure banned?

The new plan smacks of wanting desperately to give a skeptical public something that actually functions, even it’s just a curiosity that some folks might ride a few times just for the experience.

It seems far-fetched that many would get on and off at least four different conveyances to travel between San Francisco and Los Angeles in, at best, perhaps five hours when planes make the trip frequently in about an hour.

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2021/02/california-bullet-train-cost-merced-bakersfield/?mc_cid=4b3fad35cd&mc_eid=914e27b612

Click through--it has no paywall.

[Joe]

Here's a nice round-up from PRI:

The California High Speed Rail, its formal name, was a hobby-ego project for former governor Jerry Brown that was supposed to move passengers between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 220 mph by 2020. Instead, the project is moving at the speed of the museum piece it sometimes appears destined to be. Not a single train has run, with train testing still six to seven years away, amid seemingly never-ending delays.

https://www.pacificresearch.org/the-low-spark-of-high-speed-rail/?utm_source=Pacific+Research+Institute&utm_campaign=504984c940-California+E-mail+122019_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_54315d0e14-504984c940-223155145