Covid Tracking: One Year In

Rather than having to scroll through 50 comments to get to the weekend update on the last Covid post from early December, let's start a fresh thread.  We are about one year into this pandemic.  I'm reminded by the fact the Super Bowl is three weeks away, that the best thing to happen to the Bay Area in this ordeal was the Niners losing the game and not having a parade.  A million people lining Market St. shoulder-to-shoulder for several hours would have been devastating since we know the virus was already here.

So the weekend update from the County website is

Total Cases: 31,204 (+3,450 from last week, increasing more than a 1,000)

R-eff: 1.09 (down 0.19 from last week)

Positivity: 4.3% since last March. 6.5% for the last 30 days which is up .1% in the last seven days--stable.

Burlingame Cases: 799 (+89 similar to +82 and +88 the last two weeks--stable.)

The Burlingame numbers may be larger due to the count at the Burlingame Skilled Nursing facility.  The Daily Journal reported that "A recent COVID-19 outbreak resulting in the infection of 118 residents, 49 staff and one employee’s death at Burlingame Skilled Nursing...Burlingame Skilled Nursing management informed the Ombudsman and the county of the outbreak a week ago, said Bernie Mellott, and the National Guard was called in to assist the facility."

That would be 15% of our total case count.

Comments

[Joe]

Today's DJ piece quoting Dr. Scott:

Calling on San Mateo County residents to practice patience while waiting for a COVID-19 vaccine, Health Officer Dr. Scott Morrow released a statement Tuesday highlighting how an insufficient supply chain will result in many receiving their first dose by the late summer.

“We are in a textbook rationing situation. We have more demand than supply,” said Morrow’s statement. “We all want to go faster, but until this supply issue is ameliorated, we won’t be able to.”

Despite supply issues, Morrow was hesitant to agree with those “Monday morning quarterbacking” vaccine distributions who have claimed California is behind other states. Instead, he suggested the state faces three issues — insufficient vaccine supply, incomplete and inaccurate data and federal allocation shortfalls.

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/top-san-mateo-county-health-official-addresses-vaccine-distribution-concerns/article_d3f22f9e-5add-11eb-a7f2-a7d1642cf882.html#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1611154803&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

I forgot where I read it so cannot post it, but California is near the bottom of all states in vaccinations per capita.

[Joe - updated numbers]

Here is the weekend update:

Total Cases: 33,731 (+2,527 from last week, a nice drop in the rate)

R-eff: 1.04 (down again by.05 from last week)

Positivity: 4.4% since last March. 6.6% for the last 30 days which is up another .1% in the last seven days--so stable.

Burlingame Cases: 913 (+114 from last week so ~30% higher than the last three weeks new cases)

The media story line from Fauci to London Breed is that cases have "peaked". We will see if that is just wishful thinking and post-inauguration spin, or not.

[Gavinius Caesar]

I, Gavinius Caesar, do hereby declare my subjects shall now operate with the regal purple status. They shall be allowed to eat outdoors except at the French Laundry. I hereby reserve it for myself.

[Joe - numbers updated]

Here is the weekend update:

Total Cases: 33,731 (+1,735 from last week, aother nice drop in the rate by 800)

R-eff: 0.91 (down again by a lot- .13 from last week)

Positivity: 4.4% since last March is the same. 5.8% for the last 30 days which is down 0.8%.

Burlingame Cases: 968 (+55 from last week so less than half as many as last week)

13,213 people have completed the vaccination process in the County and another 45,000 have the first shot.

While the reopening and move to the purple tier was a surprise to many, if the trend continues it might just stick.

[Joe - Super Bowl weekend update on the numbers]

Here is the Super Bowl weekend update:

Total Cases: 36,689 (+2,958 from last week, which is up by 1,223 from last week's increase)

R-eff: 0.80 (down by a lot again- .11 after dropping .13 last week)

Positivity: 4.3% since last March is down because the last 30 days rate dropped almost a percentage point to 4.9%. That means this last week must have seen a lot of testing but had lower positivity.

Burlingame Cases: 1.021 (+53 from last week which is the same as the prior week (+55))

Parklet dining appeared pretty busy. Broadway is looking like one big parklet. And the Supreme Court ruling this week would appear to let indoor church services at 25% capacity resume.

Stay safe as you watch the Super Bowl commercials.

[Peter Garrison]

Thanks for the updates and explanations, Joe.

[Joe - Weekend updated numbers]

It looks to have been a very good week compared to the last few months. I personally know a few people who have gotten their first shot and two who have gotten their second already.

Total Cases: 37,621 (+932 which is less than a third of last week's increase)

R-eff: 0.76 (down again -.04)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped more than a percentage point to 3.8% after dropping almost a full percent last week.

Burlingame Cases: 1,062 (+41 from last week which lower by 12 than the prior week).

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

More progress! This is great news.

Total Cases: 38,229 (+608 which down another third from last week's increase)

R-eff: 0.69 (down again -.07)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .7% to 3.1%.

Burlingame Cases: 1,086 (+24 from last week which about half of the prior week).

I read a piece from a Johns Hopkins MD that asserted we would be at herd immunity by April. Let's hope so.