Covid Tracking: One Year In

Rather than having to scroll through 50 comments to get to the weekend update on the last Covid post from early December, let's start a fresh thread.  We are about one year into this pandemic.  I'm reminded by the fact the Super Bowl is three weeks away, that the best thing to happen to the Bay Area in this ordeal was the Niners losing the game and not having a parade.  A million people lining Market St. shoulder-to-shoulder for several hours would have been devastating since we know the virus was already here.

So the weekend update from the County website is

Total Cases: 31,204 (+3,450 from last week, increasing more than a 1,000)

R-eff: 1.09 (down 0.19 from last week)

Positivity: 4.3% since last March. 6.5% for the last 30 days which is up .1% in the last seven days--stable.

Burlingame Cases: 799 (+89 similar to +82 and +88 the last two weeks--stable.)

The Burlingame numbers may be larger due to the count at the Burlingame Skilled Nursing facility.  The Daily Journal reported that "A recent COVID-19 outbreak resulting in the infection of 118 residents, 49 staff and one employee’s death at Burlingame Skilled Nursing...Burlingame Skilled Nursing management informed the Ombudsman and the county of the outbreak a week ago, said Bernie Mellott, and the National Guard was called in to assist the facility."

That would be 15% of our total case count.

Comments

[Joe]

Today's DJ piece quoting Dr. Scott:

Calling on San Mateo County residents to practice patience while waiting for a COVID-19 vaccine, Health Officer Dr. Scott Morrow released a statement Tuesday highlighting how an insufficient supply chain will result in many receiving their first dose by the late summer.

“We are in a textbook rationing situation. We have more demand than supply,” said Morrow’s statement. “We all want to go faster, but until this supply issue is ameliorated, we won’t be able to.”

Despite supply issues, Morrow was hesitant to agree with those “Monday morning quarterbacking” vaccine distributions who have claimed California is behind other states. Instead, he suggested the state faces three issues — insufficient vaccine supply, incomplete and inaccurate data and federal allocation shortfalls.

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/top-san-mateo-county-health-official-addresses-vaccine-distribution-concerns/article_d3f22f9e-5add-11eb-a7f2-a7d1642cf882.html#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1611154803&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

I forgot where I read it so cannot post it, but California is near the bottom of all states in vaccinations per capita.

[Joe - updated numbers]

Here is the weekend update:

Total Cases: 33,731 (+2,527 from last week, a nice drop in the rate)

R-eff: 1.04 (down again by.05 from last week)

Positivity: 4.4% since last March. 6.6% for the last 30 days which is up another .1% in the last seven days--so stable.

Burlingame Cases: 913 (+114 from last week so ~30% higher than the last three weeks new cases)

The media story line from Fauci to London Breed is that cases have "peaked". We will see if that is just wishful thinking and post-inauguration spin, or not.

[Gavinius Caesar]

I, Gavinius Caesar, do hereby declare my subjects shall now operate with the regal purple status. They shall be allowed to eat outdoors except at the French Laundry. I hereby reserve it for myself.

[Joe - numbers updated]

Here is the weekend update:

Total Cases: 33,731 (+1,735 from last week, aother nice drop in the rate by 800)

R-eff: 0.91 (down again by a lot- .13 from last week)

Positivity: 4.4% since last March is the same. 5.8% for the last 30 days which is down 0.8%.

Burlingame Cases: 968 (+55 from last week so less than half as many as last week)

13,213 people have completed the vaccination process in the County and another 45,000 have the first shot.

While the reopening and move to the purple tier was a surprise to many, if the trend continues it might just stick.

[Joe - Super Bowl weekend update on the numbers]

Here is the Super Bowl weekend update:

Total Cases: 36,689 (+2,958 from last week, which is up by 1,223 from last week's increase)

R-eff: 0.80 (down by a lot again- .11 after dropping .13 last week)

Positivity: 4.3% since last March is down because the last 30 days rate dropped almost a percentage point to 4.9%. That means this last week must have seen a lot of testing but had lower positivity.

Burlingame Cases: 1.021 (+53 from last week which is the same as the prior week (+55))

Parklet dining appeared pretty busy. Broadway is looking like one big parklet. And the Supreme Court ruling this week would appear to let indoor church services at 25% capacity resume.

Stay safe as you watch the Super Bowl commercials.

[Peter Garrison]

Thanks for the updates and explanations, Joe.

[Joe - Weekend updated numbers]

It looks to have been a very good week compared to the last few months. I personally know a few people who have gotten their first shot and two who have gotten their second already.

Total Cases: 37,621 (+932 which is less than a third of last week's increase)

R-eff: 0.76 (down again -.04)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped more than a percentage point to 3.8% after dropping almost a full percent last week.

Burlingame Cases: 1,062 (+41 from last week which lower by 12 than the prior week).

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

More progress! This is great news.

Total Cases: 38,229 (+608 which down another third from last week's increase)

R-eff: 0.69 (down again -.07)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .7% to 3.1%.

Burlingame Cases: 1,086 (+24 from last week which about half of the prior week).

I read a piece from a Johns Hopkins MD that asserted we would be at herd immunity by April. Let's hope so.

[Joe - Weekend updated numbers]

More good news this week:

Total Cases: 38,729 (+500 from last week which down another 18% from last week's increase)

R-eff: 0.72 (up 0.03)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .7% to 2.4% after dropping .7% last week as well.

Burlingame Cases: 1,108 (+22 from last week which about the same as the prior week).

While the news is generally good, the worries over the new variants' higher contagiousness (B.1.1.7 and B.1.427/B.1.429) merit sticking with the plan.

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

This weekend update is REALLY good. Really good. You can feel the optimism on the Avenue--maybe a bit too much optimism from some people where mask protocol is tapering off a little. But with 25.6% of the County age 16+ vaccinated, there is reason for optimism.

Total Cases: 39,048 (+319 in the County from last week which down another 36% from last week's increase--declining at twice the rate!)

R-eff: 0.77 (up 0.05)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .6% to 1.8% after dropping .7% each of the last two weeks.

Burlingame Cases: 1,119 (+11 from last week which is half as many as each of the last two weeks).

You read that right, 11 new cases in B'game last week. Stick to it, people.

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

It looks like we are headed for Orange this coming week.

Total Cases: 39,393 (+345 in the County which is about the same as last week)

R-eff: 0.72 (down 0.05)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .3% to 1.5%.

Burlingame Cases: 1,129 (+10 from last week which was +11 from the prior week).

Also in a news release on Thursday, the county said that health care providers are expected to identify those who will become eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine on Mar. 15, when individuals aged 16 to 64 with certain health conditions can register.

“We expect health care providers to identify those who will become eligible to be vaccinated starting March 15th based on specific medical conditions,” said Dr. Anand Chabra, the county’s COVID-19 vaccination branch chief.

As of Wednesday, 181,504 people have been vaccinated in San Mateo County. (Note: that is about 25% of the county)

[Joe]

For the "What could go wrong file" from Calmatters.org:

Today, millions of Californians will become eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine, inundating a system already straining under the weight of limited supply, pervasive tech glitches, political infighting and general confusion.
Originally, only Californians with disabilities and severe health conditions were set to become eligible for the vaccine today. But the state on Thursday expanded prioritization to public transit workers, commercial airline employees, homeless Californians and those in federal immigrant detention centers, among others. With 40% of the state’s vaccine supply reserved for low-income communities and another 10% set aside for education workers, there isn’t much left to go around.

Further complicating matters, California isn’t requiring those with underlying health conditions to verify their diagnosis or disability. Though the move was applauded by many disability and privacy advocates, the state’s reliance on the honor system also paves the way for people to cut the line — a repeated occurrence that has resulted in young, healthy residents obtaining doses intended for vulnerable Californians.

Meanwhile, disagreements over vaccine distribution continue to fester between counties and the state.
------------
Nice work, Gavin.

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

There are lots of mentions of the one-year anniversary of this and that closing this week. The County went to orange mid-week and here is why:

Total Cases: 39,742 (+349 in the County which is just 4 more than last week and about the same as the prior week)

R-eff: 0.75 (up 0.03)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .3% to 1.2% after dropping .3% the week before. Fewer than 2,000 new cases in the last 30 days.

Burlingame Cases: 1,147 (+18 from last week which was +10 from the prior week which was +11 from the week before that).

Now that the Newsom recall is well on it's way, Gavin is touting the full availability of vaccines for everyone by the end of April. We'll see,

[MBGA]

Only 15 more days to flatten the curve.

[Spurinna]

Someone mentioned that if a Democrat enters the recall race then Newsom is finished.

His “good friend” L.A. Mayor Garcetti, ventured the opinion on how the pandemic could have been handled more efficiently...

A first conspiratorial wink at the Forum?

[Gavinius Caesar]

I, Gavinius Caesar, declare we have 1.8% positivity today, that's lower than all but three states in the country," he said. "We have lower death rates than the vast majority of states this country, certainly much lower than places like Florida and Texas. I believe we've saved lives. We're led by science, we're lead by health, led by data.

Do not listen to the facts that do not fit my story.

While California did have lower death rates than most of the country ahead of the winter surge, when ranked from highest to lowest, it places 28th among 50 states with 143 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 residents. For reference, Florida ranks 27th with 151, and Texas ranks 24th with 161.

[MBGA]

The death rates are easily distorted by how they are counted.

The positive cases are easily distorted by how many PCR cycles they are using at any particular time.

I wonder if this is common knowledge. <- I'm not finishing that sentence with a question mark.

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

Things are still looking pretty stable:

Total Cases: 40,186 (+444 in the County which is about 100 more than last week, so some acceleration)

R-eff: 0.78 (up another 0.03)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .2% to 1.0% after dropping .3% in each of the two weeks prior.

Burlingame Cases: 1,169 (+22 from last week compared to +18 the week prior. 78 cases in the last 30 days in town).

Those of us between age 50 and 65 can start getting vaccinated next Thursday (April 1st). It will be interesting to see what the wait time is then.

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

Whether we are following the science or following the Newsom recall progress, things are opening up faster and faster. This week a new "Green" tier has been proposed and more indoor events are partially restarting in two weeks

Total Cases: 40,542 (+356 in the County which is about 100 less than last week)

R-eff: 0.97 (up a lot--.19 which is odd)

Positivity: the last 30 days rate dropped another .1% to .9%

Burlingame Cases: 1,188 (+19 after +22 from last week and +18 the week prior. Very stable with 80 cases in the last 30 days).

[Joe - Weekend Update on the Numbers]

The scramble for vaccinations is on. Lots of people have one or both, but apparently the supply is not strong in San Mateo County. The DJ noted "Vaccine supply has long been an issue in the county and officials have routinely noted that the number of doses received fall substantially short of demand. Supply became increasingly constrained as the state began to direct 40% of doses to its most underserved communities, none of which are in San Mateo County and only 10 falling in the greater Bay Area." Here are the numbers for the week:

Total Cases: 40,754 (+212 in the County which is about 150 less than last week)

R-eff: 0.97 ( the same)

Positivity: .9% (the same)

Burlingame Cases: 1,199 (+11 from last week. Very stable with 78 cases in the last 30 days).

[___Underscore]

Is it possible to tell the difference between flu symptoms and COVID-19 symptoms?
They can not tell the difference between Covid or the Flu according to Doctors.

As they say;
“I think it’s tough because both the flu and COVID-19 can have a variety of overlapping symptoms,” said Fahimi. Those symptoms can include fever, chills and body aches, upper respiratory symptoms like runny nose and sore throat, lower respiratory symptoms like cough and pneumonia, and some gastrointestinal symptoms like nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

[HMB]

And that is why TESTING is so important. Because that's how we'll know if it's flu going around or covid.

[Joe]

I absolutely agree, HMB. And thanks for the input. We do a lot of things here at the Voice, but dispensing medical advice ain't one of them. Use a verified source, please.

"A man's got to know his limitations"
-Dirty Harry

[Joe]

It was April 9th, not April 1st..............

www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/san-mateo-county-vaccination-alert-error-causes-confusion

[Christopher Cooke]

I think we should have let everyone get vaccinated who wants it, and am very glad we are switching to this as of April 16. It is a race between vaccinating everyone as quickly as possible and new variants of the virus spreading quickly. It is better to run out of doses than to have doses go unused because of the vaccine hesitant.