The Burlingame Voice

Looking for Silver Linings of 2020

As this annus horribilis winds its way to its midnight conclusion, I have been searching for whatever silver linings come to mind.  There aren't many and perhaps some of you will add a few more, but these are what I have come up with:

With schools going virtual and organized sports on hold, it was a rough year for kids.  On the bright side, it's gratifying to see how many kids rediscovered their bikes.  Bike sales skyrocketed (unfortunately so did bike thefts) and seeing so many B'game kids cruising the streets with or without their parents has been great.  Popping wheelies is also back and modern bikes allow for some impressive wheelie yardage.

Sales of puppies may even be outstripping that of bikes.  On my dog walks, I have seen more puppies in the last two months than I can ever recall.  Even better, new owners seem to have the time on their hands to do puppy training.  I took the puppy obedience classes at the SPCA at Coyote Point years ago and know the basics, but there must be some good YouTube instruction for these new owners to learn virtually since they are doing so well.  I bet there are a lot of dogs as happy as are mine with the extra walks.

Our restaurants have been at the epicenter of the business stress.  Many were temporarily closed even before the latest lockdown and some are not likely to make it.  But in speaking to the owner of one of my favorites on the Avenue, he noted that through all of this he has gotten to know his customers better than he ever has before.  People really wanted to talk when they were out, as we saw with the BAAZ, and owners and staff are happy to comply.

Spring cleaning started right on time and then continued for months and months.  It is still on-going if the "Donations Are Full" signs at Pick of the Litter are any indication.  I once saw the donation line at the Goodwill in San Mateo stretch into the street and bend back almost to El Camino.  20 cars.  People generally have good hearts and 2020 made it more visible.  Home improvements followed suit and local gardens certainly benefited.  Lowes, Home Depot and nurseries made it to "essential business" status.

All things on Zoom and virtual is a double-edged sword.  Hanging out with people is key to many, especially the extroverts, and web conferencing is a thin substitute.  But on the plus side, we can hangout with friends from far away or long ago easier than ever.  Having health care providers adapt to virtual sessions will be another long-term benefit.

The last silver lining I have is a prediction.  As things return to normal, we will all have a greater appreciation for a lot of heretofore less-noticed things.  Meetups for morning coffee, sitting at a ballgame at Bayside or Washington Park, the Lion's Car Show, Art on the Avenue, going to church in church, and family gatherings will all be sweeter than before.  Happy New Year!  Bring on 2021.    

Serious Street Stupidity

Last night I saw the most dangerous thing I have ever seen on B'game's streets in 30 years.  During the daytime, the set of traffic lights on El Camino at Bayswater went out.  That is the five-way intersection at St. Catherine's church.  It is normally pretty safe even though it's more complex than your average intersection.  The quick fix involved putting saw horses with Stop signs attached in the middle of each of the five converging streets.  There were no flashing lights attached.  During the daytime, I saw several cars handle the surprising situation by slowing down to the rolling "California stop" and proceeding with caution.  There were several more that just blew through the intersection like there was nothing there--one almost hitting a pedestrian who peered southbound down ECR in amazement.

After dark I happened to be there again on foot--still no lights, no enforcement, just the signage shown below.  It got even more unnerving as car after car blew straight through on ECR in the dark.  On one hand, perhaps the drivers with cars behind them were acting rationally since they could have been rear-ended.  But really?  Whoever made the call to just put up unlit signs, no warning back a block, no flares, and no parked empty police cruiser on the sidewalk with its lights flashing ought to be fired tomorrow.

Luckily I did not hear any sirens through the night and the lights were working this morning.  But it's pure dumb luck.

  

Natural Gas vs. Electric: Pay Up

It's never too late to repeal the B'game ban on natural gas in new construction--unless a contractor has already started the build.  We hashed over the issue in February here.  Whether such a ban does any actual climate good and what it might cost (in a cost/benefit sense) is important.  This week the Wall Street Journal carried two letters to the editor that bear on the question:

Regarding Allysia Finley’s op-ed “Now We’re Cooking With Gas. But Tomorrow?” (Dec. 17): Forbidding natural-gas connections in new buildings ensures that more, not less, natural gas will be consumed to meet the new demand for electricity. Similarly, government mandates for electric vehicles, space heating and cooking will increase the total amount of natural gas burned.

Natural gas consumed as a fuel to heat or cook is more than 90% efficient, while electricity produced from natural gas is at best 60% efficient. This means that boiling a pot of water on an electric stove uses 150% as much natural gas as a gas stove. This is before any consideration is given to the inefficiencies of induction heating or losses in transmission.  On the other hand, if all U.S. homes were required to burn natural gas for space heating and cooking, the total amount of natural gas consumed nationwide would probably decline, with the added benefit of increasing the proportion of U.S. energy sourced from renewables. Unintended consequences can be a cruel mistress.

Richard Varner, Wichita, KS

California’s efforts to curb natural-gas use can be devastating to low-income households. The top rate for electricity is more than 40 cents per kilowatt hour, which equates to nearly $12 per therm of heat. Natural gas, by contrast, costs about $2.50 a therm. This means that it costs more than four times as much to cook your dinner, dry your clothes or heat your bath water with electricity than with gas. You can get a somewhat better deal using a heat pump (at a cost of several thousand dollars) to heat your house; the electricity for this costs only twice as much as the gas for a furnace. Many people involved with California real estate are aware of this. Unfortunately, few of them are in government.

Robert A. Saunders, Rohnert Park, Calif.

On the earlier thread a commenter made a good point that I had not considered.  The B'game ban is a "reach code" that supposedly only affects new construction.  But over the long-haul, with about 150 other California towns doing similar things, how long before qualified technicians, replacement parts and replacement units become harder to find and most costly?  Not long, I bet.

EV Charging: A Slow Go Of It

We last checked on the usage for the electric vehicle charging stations in Lot Y just off Broadway back in February.  It was low then (1.25 charges per space, per day) and has dropped off from there.  That was pre-Covid so perhaps a sizeable drop was to be expected although October and November appeared pretty busy around Broadway.  Here are the latest figures

	Total charging minutes	Total charging Sessions
October 2020	2650	121
November 2020	3571	137

That tallies to about a half of a charge per day, per space.  If overall parking demand in Lot Y is low that is probably OK.  With the authorization of parklets on B'way by the city council coming just ahead of the latest lockdown on outdoor dining, we now have empty parklets on B'way taking up quite a few spaces.  I would guess overall parking demand is down even with free parking on Saturdays on B'way.  Will the news about a possible Apple EV with new battery technology make a difference--or are EVs still so expensive that everyone who has one also has the wherewithal to put in their own charging station instead of hanging out in Lot Y?  If it's from Apple, you know it won't be cheap.  We'll see.

Apple has long been rumored to be working on a car, even before everyone got excited about EVs. According to a new report from Reuters, that vehicle might finally be coming to fruition in 2024.

Reuters reported that the autonomous Apple car will start production in 2024 and will feature “next level” battery technology. The news service cited someone "who has seen Apple's battery design" as saying it could "radically" reduce battery costs and increase range.

Winter Solstice, Christmas Star

I like to take note of the Winter Solstice as I did in 2014 here.  It's the shortest day of the year, so it's all downhill from here to those glorious, long June nights in B'game when you can sit out in the dusk until 9:30.  I'm not too affected by the darkness being a nighthawk to begin with, but I know many people for whom it is a struggle and this year is probably the worst ever.  The shortest day means the longest night and tonight is special since it marks a Jupiter - Saturn Conjunction.  As this site notes  and shows a great time lapse rendering

The year 2020 will end with a special astronomical event: the closest great conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in 397 years. On December 21, the two planets will almost touch in the sky.  Since September 2020, Jupiter has been moving closer and closer to Saturn in the early evening sky. Wherever you are in the world—even in light-polluted urban environments—the two planets are an impressive sight, and easy to find after sunset. If you're in the Northern Hemisphere, look toward the southwest.

You can also use my new favorite app, Sky Guide, and easily locate stars, constellations and planets.  No more memorizing what is where like when I was a Boy Scout.

On December 21, the day of the conjunction, Jupiter and Saturn will be separated by a mere 0.1 degrees, and may appear as a single bright “star.” The two planets are completely merged together on our Night Sky Map for this date, although a careful observer should be able to separate them in the sky with the naked eye.   The pair of planets will become visible at twilight, close to the southwestern horizon in the Northern Hemisphere, or the western horizon in the Southern Hemisphere. They will set within a couple of hours or so, so it is important to have a clear view toward the horizon.

As Jupiter and Saturn will rendezvous just a few days before Christmas, forming what will look like a single bright object in the sky, the 2020 great conjunction is sometimes also called the “Christmas star” or “Bethlehem star.”  In fact, some scholars have theorized that the original Christmas star, known as the Star of Bethlehem, might also have been a great conjunction.

The December 21, 2020 conjunction will be the closest great conjunction since July 16, 1623. At the great conjunction of 1623, Jupiter and Saturn were slightly less than 0.1 degrees apart. However, this event would have been difficult—although not impossible—to observe since the two planets were near the Sun.  The last time that the two planets were easily observable when separated by less than 0.1 degrees was almost 800 years ago, during the great conjunction of 1226.

There is more on the site linked above, so check it out and get outside after sunset to see the Christmas Star.

Update:  A friend who lives on "Panoramic Heights" in San Carlos and is very capable with a telescope and camera sent me this picture (taken with a 1200 mm lens)!  Enjoy!

Water Security: An Historical View

Just because I have not written on water issues lately doesn't mean I haven't stopped worrying about our water security.  The drumbeat for development has not diminished even as we hear of the Bay Area exodus continuing.  I have attended a couple of professional seminars on the topic recently and neither have given me any confidence that this long-running problem is being worked on.  How long running?  Here is an historical perspective from the Tahoe Weekly newspaper's local historian Mark McLaughlin:

In 1870s, Southern Pacific Railroad (SPRR) started taking rain (in 1871) and snowfall (in 1879) measurements at its train stations across the Central Sierra. A primary reason for the data collection was to help convince American farmers to buy acreage in the Central Valley that SPRR had acquired in land grants and was now selling. Farmers from the Midwest and East Coast were attracted by California’s long growing season, but skeptical that the 20 inches or less of annual precipitation in the valley was sufficient to nourish crops. The railroad used its weather data to illustrate that portions of the west slopes of the Sierra Range receive up to 80 inches of precipitation, with much of it falling as snow above 6,000 feet in elevation. The prodigious spring and summer snowmelt fed streams and rivers flowing into the valley, thus providing abundant irrigation water for crops and ranching.

The importance of snow runoff storage was apparent even 150 years ago.  In a piece in today's WSJ about the Bay Area exodus, it notes

Between 2005 and 2019 employment in the five counties that make of the bulk of the Bay Area grew by 29% adding 674,000 jobs, according to California's Employment Development Department.  Yet construction permits were issued for just 211,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.  Planners say the ratio of new jobs to new housing units should be around 1.5 to one.

So you see the problem.  "Just 211,000" units with many, many more in the pipeline and legislative threats to ramp up even further, but no new water storage in the SFPUC-run system.  What could go wrong?  Heckuva way to run a railroad.

Exodus - Part 2 Elon Musk Departs

Back in July we asked "how big? and how long?" would be the exodus from the Bay Area?  We got one more view of just how big today when the Wall Street Journal reported that Elon Musk said at a WSJ CEO Summit council this week he has moved to Texas.

Taking up residence in Texas comes with personal benefits for Mr. Musk: The state doesn’t collect state income or capital-gains tax for individuals. The auto executive qualified this year for billions of dollars in stock-option compensation as part of a pay-package agreement, making him the second-richest person in the world.

During the spring, when Mr. Musk was sparring over coronavirus shelter-in-place orders that shut his factory near San Francisco, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNBC he was “not worried about Elon leaving any time soon” and the state was committed to the car maker’s success. “We may not be the cheapest place to do business but we are the best place to do business,” Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, said.

California’s taxes underlie many of the complaints. Its personal income tax tops out at 13.3% for amounts over $1 million a year, the highest in the nation. Capital gains are taxed at a similar rate.

In a separate piece this week, the WSJ also highlighted how mid-tier cities are gaining population at the expense of SF and NYC

For every person who moved to the Bay Area from Austin between April and October, 2.9 people moved in the other direction, according to an analysis from LinkedIn. That is a 39% increase from a year earlier.

Perhaps the Gavinor could make a phone call, apologize and get back Musk's tens of millions of dollars in annual California taxes.  He would also have to call the CEOs of HP Enterprise, Palantir and dozens of start-ups and sports stars.  But as the Journal noted "Many who call the Bay Area home have expressed relief at the departure of tech professionals who have been blamed for driving up the cost of living and congesting the freeways."  When I was an analyst, we called that a "going out of business strategy".  Nobody is less pleased with the over-development of the Peninsula than me, but if we are to fund the good stuff (schools, social services, infrastructure, pensions) and the bad stuff Newsom wants (high-cost rail, costly green policies, giveaways) then he might want to pick up the phone and start calling. 

Sign, Sign, Everywhere a Covid Fine

I'm poaching the Five Man Electrical Band's sole hit song "Signs" for this post about Covid violation fines

Sign, sign, everywhere a sign
Blockin' out the scenery, breakin' my mind
Do this, don't do that, can't you read the sign?

And the sign said anybody caught trespassin' would be shot on sight
So I jumped on the fence and-a yelled at the house, "Hey! What gives you the right?"

The Daily Post is leading the way on reporting what SM County Manager Mike Callagy said Wednesday about businesses getting fined for not filing plans with the county or posting signs about social distancing or wearing masks.  He said he "didn't have the exact number of tickets that have been handed out but 747 complaints have come into the county about businesses.  The county's Board of Supervisors on Aug. 4 approved a set of Covid-related fines for businesses, ranging from $250 to $3,000.  He said of the complaints, 24% are from San Mateo, 16% from Redwood City and 10% in Burlingame.  The businesses commonly cited are gyms and "tend to operate at night".

Pretty amazing since long time B'gamers are aware of another business that "tends to operate at night" and yet seldom gets cited.  Some of these businesses are on the Bayfront and others on the side streets of B'way.  We are leading the way here though since San Mateo is 3 1/2 times our size but only has 2 1/2 times as many complaints.  OK.  Now I'll retract my tongue from my cheek and suggest a) this may not be the best way to go about it, b) does anyone really need a sign to know about wearing a mask and c) can we just leave the gyms to exercise good judgement as the main purveyors of good health in town?

 

San Mateo: Dodged a bullet by 43 votes

Let's just take a moment to thank the 23,038 voters in San Mateo that put Measure Y over the top.  The details are here if you haven't been watching, but in essence it keeps the rules in place that put limits on over-development in the 105,000 resident city that is our southern neighbor.  We are intimately tied to Millbrae, H'borough and San Mateo.  This was a squeaker which is scary since it should have been a no-brainer for people who care about the quality of life on the mid-Peninsula, but at least it passed--by 43 votes.

 City of San Mateo, Measure Y (Majority Approval Required)

(VOTE FOR 1)

 

 

	Candidate Name		Total Votes	Percentage
	YES		23,038	50.05%
	NO		22,995	49.95%

This is reminder number 4,246 that your vote matters.

TOT: Less Travel Means Less Taxes; 80% Less

I was struck by the anecdotes in this SF Chronicle piece about hotel occupancy in the city.  It got me thinking about B'game finances since we are a major hotel host city as well.

To see the sorry state of San Francisco’s once dynamic hospitality industry right now, just pay a visit to the lobby of the Hotel Nikko near Union Square — you’ll need to ring a bell to get in, and when you step into the lobby, it’s empty.

A year ago, the lobby would have been buzzing with tourists, business travelers and conventioneers. Today, the 530-room hotel is lucky to have 30 guests. A year ago, the hotel hallways bustled with 35 to 55 housekeepers cleaning rooms. Today, there are two.  Downstairs in the hotel’s kitchen, where 100 cooks and workers once served up meals for guests and banquets, a single cook waits for room service orders.

Back in 2014, I noted

The Transient Occupany Tax (known as the 'TOT') is a major source of revenue for B'game given our proximity to SFO and the number of hotels we have on the Bayfront.  Our rate is 12%.  Think $18 million in 2013 per page 37 of the CAFR found here -- higher than either property or sales taxes.  So I checked with the city on how it's going in Covid 2020:

TOT returns are due the last day of the month following the month being reported on, so this information is more timely.  We have received all the returns through September.  TOT revenues were $423,310 for July, $571,218 for August, and $445,744 for September – about 20% of 2019 receipts.  Average occupancy is about a third, meaning that the less expensive hotels are faring better in terms of occupancy.

For the 2018/19 fiscal year, TOT was about $29M out of a total budget of about $87M - one third of the total.  80% of a third is about a quarter of our total budget that will disappear this year if things continue as they are now.