Having tracked the coronavirus spread in San Mateo County on a weekly basis here, I can say the basic trend is a straight line since July. You can see it graphically as well here. The fundamentals in our County from last Saturday are:
Cases: 9843 (up 321 this week, so a definite slowdown) - it was running about +450 for awhile
R-eff: .94 (magically dropping a little)
Positivity: 5.7% (exactly flat)
Burlingame Cases: 223 (up 8 for the week)
The County moved into the Red "substantial" tier bring modest reopening including playgrounds (as soon as the city gets signage in place), churches and gyms with tight attendance limits, etc. So what is next? According to the Chronicle, we will now need to have "racial equity" in order for small businesses and other endangered enterprises to get the go-ahead that comes with the orange "moderate" tier.
California public health officials Wednesday evening revealed the final metric that counties must meet before they can further reopen their economies. It’s a complicated marker meant to ensure that communities of color no longer bear the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic. The new metric requires each county to ensure that positive test rates in its most disadvantaged neighborhoods do not significantly lag behind the county’s overall positive rate. In order for a county to move to a less-restrictive tier, the disadvantaged neighborhoods — measured by a variety of social, health and economic factors — must come within 5% of the positive test rate required for that tier.
For example: Most of the Bay Area is in the red tier, and to advance to the less-restrictive orange tier requires a positive test rate between 2% and 4.9%. Under the new metric, each county must also prove that the positive test rate for its most disadvantaged neighborhoods is 5.2% or less.
Not only do we have to somehow shave at least .8% off of the positivity rate that has been stable for a long time, but we also have to do something special in the hotspots. I pulled the Healthy Places Index (HPI) off the state site and there are 157 census tracts in our county. Only 4 appear to be in the 4th quintile and none in the bottom. You have to wonder if this latest move is really the most holistically healthy for everyone and every business--and school-- in the county? Here's the position of one of the experts
Dr. Bela Matyas, the Solano County health officer, said he had misgivings about the new metric, which he argued would not help counties fix decades of systemic health disparities that are to blame for the disproportionate spread of the virus in this pandemic. He added that the equity metric was hotly contested by many county health officers while state officials tried to work out the details.
“It’s an absurd ask. The metric has nothing to do with things over which we have control,” Matyas said Wednesday. “I am 100% behind trying to achieve health equity, but it’s got to be done in a way that makes sense. Having said that, there was a lot of pushback (from health officers) and what they ended up with is a lot more innocuous than what it could have been.”
So if you are trying to restart a small retail business that doesn't get a parklet or trying to get some of your expensive indoor restaurant space generating revenue, you are faced with the "absurd".
Update: Adding even more absurdity to the mix, check this out!
Let me share with you the secret “tell” of the absurd: The promoter of the absurd will declare, “It is the right thing to do.”
So, anyone who disagrees with the absurd is not right and his ideas not right.
This “tell” seems to be shared among the recent decisions of Peninsula City Councils in regard to minimum wage discussions and housing proposals.
Listen for the “tell” and push back.
Posted by: Cassandra | October 02, 2020 at 01:53 PM
I really want to understand what the corona rate in EPA or North Fair Oaks has to do with reopening a family-owned business or restaurant on Broadway. I really really want to know.
Posted by: Mom | October 03, 2020 at 01:51 PM
Here is the Saturday check-up.
County cases: 10,207 (up 364 for the week, very stable)
R-eff: 0.85 (no mention of why the decrease)
Positivity: Flat at 5.7% (same for weeks)
Burlingame cases: 226 (up 3 for the week)
As the original post notes, now we have to start paying attention to the "poorer" cities positivity rates to know when we will move to the orange tier (up one).
Posted by: Joe | October 03, 2020 at 04:19 PM
The Progressive political position is to establish a faux metric that actually ensures that the poor will more greatly suffer.
Continued shutdowns hurt the poor disproportionally more than the wealthy.
California has the largest wealth and income gap in the country, by far. CA’s percentage of the population on welfare is almost three times the average in the entire U.S. and is increasing.
The widening of the wealth and income gap increased more during the Obama years than during any other U.S. Administration.
Pray for them as they know not what they do.
Posted by: Libertarian | October 03, 2020 at 11:26 PM
What would happen if poor people were to act responsibly and STOP having children?
If you cannot afford to house, feed, clothe and buy a new backpack for your child each year (without free-loading off the taxpayer), just do NOT have children.
You would be doing the world a favor!
Posted by: Paloma Ave | October 04, 2020 at 09:06 AM
Think of all the poor kids who grew up to do great things with their lives and make the world a more interesting, richer place. What a loss we all would have suffered if they hadn't existed because their parents didn't meet some income requirement, Paloma.
I'm also reminded of the sons & daughters of wealthy parents who do nothing to benefit the lives of others, who use their considerable resources to pull up the ladders behind them, build walls around their wealth, and strengthen the inequalities that gave them so many advantages. Some of them spin their privilege so far as to believe they're immune to and incapable of spreading a communicable disease. Talk about "absurd."
Don't forget to VOTE!
Posted by: Fugit All | October 05, 2020 at 06:18 PM
Fugit All - So, common sense is never on your radar?
You do not care about hungry and homeless children?
Posted by: Paloma Ave | October 06, 2020 at 08:52 AM
I'm not the one saying they shouldn't exist because their parents can't buy them a new backpack every year.
Make sure you stretch before taking leaps that long.
Posted by: Fugit All | October 06, 2020 at 05:52 PM
I, Gavinius Caesar, declare each bite of food and each sip of meade must be covered immediately. All of my subjects must obey on penalty of being dragged through the streets by a team of horses.
Posted by: Gavinius Caesar | October 07, 2020 at 04:14 PM
Saturday update for the prior week in the County:
Cases: 10,510 (+303 for the week, dropping steadily)
R-eff: 0.97 (rising noticeably, but why?)
Positivity: 5.7% (just as it has been for weeks so we must be testing LESS)
Burlingame cases: 233 (+7 for the week)
Burlingame population: "about 28,000" per burlingame.org
Posted by: Joe | October 10, 2020 at 11:06 AM
(Offstage, alarums)
This whiff of change in the air: Our Swedish MD relatives sent notice that shutting down Sweden is a bad idea.
This morning, Stanford doctors say closing down the country would be a mistake.
They must be sensing a Biden victory so we can all have a Happy Thanksgiving.
Posted by: Wunderkind | October 12, 2020 at 11:02 AM
I, Gavinius Caesar, do hereby declare three households to be the limit across the Empire. Three is the divine number and all subjects shall so restrict their socializing.
Posted by: Gavinius Caesar | October 15, 2020 at 01:53 PM
Here is our weekly, Saturday check-in on the numbers:
County Cases: 10,743 (up only +233 as the steady decline continues)
R-eff: .91
Positivity: 5.7% (totally stable for a long time)
Burlingame cases: 237 (+4 for the week)
The Chronicle said San Mateo County met the "equity" positivity rate on Tuesday. There's no indication of what that means or more importantly what it would mean if we slipped out of compliance next week or the week after. It has to be really hard on many businesses trying to operate with moving goal posts when so many of the goal posts (like positivity and new case counts) are so stable.
Posted by: Joe | October 17, 2020 at 02:45 PM
hollyroller's comment has been moved to this thread since that is what he's commenting on:
How about this Topic Joe?
Is Burlingame ready to be closed again when the Corona Virus hits hard this year and next?
Bye the way, opening any restaurant in "these times" is not a very good idea.
Posted by: Editor | October 17, 2020 at 10:24 PM
Thank you Joe.
Posted by: [email protected] | October 17, 2020 at 10:49 PM
I'm sure Caesar will give us his opinion and I'll bet my last denarius he will say shut it down.
Posted by: resident | October 18, 2020 at 01:37 PM
I, Gavinius Caesar, hereby declare I will close down the Forum if my astrologers tell me to do so. I follow the science. I only get confused when one astrologer disagrees with another. In that instance, I flip a denarius.
Posted by: Gavinius Caesar | October 19, 2020 at 01:32 PM
Here's this week's update on San Mateo County numbers:
Total Cases: 11,075 (+332 from last week)
R-eff: 0.91 (exactly the same)
Positivity: 5.6% (down a tenth)
Burlingame Cases: 247 (+10 for the week)
I wanted to check the accuracy of a comment on another thread that quoted Joe Biden as saying "By the way all you teachers out there, not that many of you are going to die so don't worry about it". It's accurate. Here is a YouTube link to that bit of the debate:
https://youtu.be/66vfPGzYZjc
We must be reaching the point where some in-school teaching has to start. The comment on the other thread was that she had not heard any plan from officials. Neither have I.
Posted by: Joe | October 25, 2020 at 02:10 PM
Charter schools or private schools?
I was on a walking tour in Pacific Heights last week and the Catholic children were playing in the sun, laughing and running between class sessions.
Hillsborough school is open.
I sense a trend... Market forces at work!
Posted by: Peter Garrison | October 25, 2020 at 06:26 PM
Aren't OLA and St Cats opening up next week?
Posted by: Barking Dog | October 25, 2020 at 07:05 PM
Here's the Weekend Update as the news of a new virus surge around the world causes more consternation. Chronicle headline today about SF pausing the reopening that was planned:
Total Cases: 11,371 (+296 still declining)
R-eff: 0.94 (basically the same)
Positivity: 5.5% (down another tenth)
Burlingame Cases: 251 (+4 for the week)
As you can easily see, no surge yet in SMC and certainly not in B'game. 4 new cases for the entire week.
Posted by: Joe | October 31, 2020 at 12:41 PM
The San Francisco delay of relaxing some restrictions is kind of a farce, in Bruce Dickinson's humble opinion. The County moves to yellow a few days ago, meaning restrictions can be lifted. So then what is the purpose of the safety color status if you're not going to follow it? Also some of the Mayor London Breed's commentary was so over-the-top, stating that "The the increase in hospitalizations is troubling"... But how troubling? From 3 per 100,000 in population to 4 in 100,000. Seriously!!?? These are such tiny numbers!
Folks, the whole point of lockdown was to flatten the curve, which has now morphed into "nobody get sick". Any cursory study of epidemics and pandemics historically would suggest this is an impossible way to deal with virus, it just ain't gonna work plain and simple..just like a vaccine won't work 100%. And so far, across the world, all forms of contact tracing indicate that the public places aren't where people are transmitting the virus as they tend to be a lot more cautious...its the small family and friend get togethers where the risk really is!
People need to look at the data and let the facts tell the story. Much better way to go about life!!!
Posted by: Bruce Dickinson | October 31, 2020 at 01:15 PM
Wuhan is throwing Halloween parties at amusement parks
Our kids/grandkids are forbidden to ring a doorbell.
Posted by: Barking Dog | October 31, 2020 at 01:29 PM
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/10/30/newsom-sends-his-children-back-to-school-classrooms-in-california-1332811
Posted by: Barking Dog | October 31, 2020 at 08:14 PM
People who have money aren’t hurting.
Think of the money and health insurance congress gets, Sacramento gets, city governments get....
Let people get back to work.
Be smart, wear a mask.
If you’re old and and/or frail, be extra careful.
If you get sick, you’ll get better 99 out of 100 times.
Open up America.
Posted by: Wunderkind | October 31, 2020 at 08:46 PM