Who doesn't love a new buzzword? This week's newest is "greenout". A greenout occurs when green energy drops off so quickly, typically at sunset, that regular, reliable energy cannot ramp-up to fill the void and our back-up strategy of buying regular power from other states fails. Here are clips from two different WSJ articles this week.
When rolling blackouts darkened parts of California this month, Frank Wolak, an economics professor and energy-markets expert at Stanford University, had a painful sense of déjà vu. As Californians again experience rolling blackouts, and millions more are threatened with losing power, a warning that continues through Monday, Mr. Wolak said it was clear that “California policy makers completely forgot the lessons from the crisis…in their rush to go green.”
Once again, a big part of the problem is that California regulators have left the state dangerously exposed to buying large amounts of imported electricity on the spot market during peak periods on days when there is extreme energy demand—what Mr. Wolak likened to going to the airport on Thanksgiving and expecting to fly standby.
Good one. Very apt analogy. Here are some of the actual numbers to support it.
During peak daylight hours, California produces a surplus of solar energy, and power generators may be ordered or paid to cut back their production so the grid isn’t overloaded. On Friday and Saturday Caiso reported about 1,000 mega-watt hours (MWh) were curtailed—enough to power 30,000 homes. This year 1.3 million MWh of power have been curtailed. State water regulations are also forcing the shutdown of “peaker” plants along the coast that can quickly ramp up generation when the sun goes down. This is why the Public Utilities Commission last year warned the state could face an energy shortage as early as 2021 on hot summer evenings. That day has arrived a year early.
When they can get it, Californians already pay twice as much for electricity as Washingtonians and a third more than Nevadans. Because the spot price for power in the summer can surge more than 30-fold from noon to dusk, utilities are building expensive batteries to store solar energy that can be released in the evening. They say that will save money, but that’s also what they said about Jerry Brown’s failed bullet train.
On many days, California’s grid operator now has to find 10,000 to 15,000 megawatts of replacement power—sometimes 25% to 50% of what it needs to keep the lights on—during a three-hour period as solar, and to a lesser degree, wind power, falls off.
So there you have it. It's enough to make you question if you should leave the Peninsula Clean Energy program--you probably got the glossy postcard in the mail today--and force "them" to keep more natural gas plants, build new nukes and value reliability as a service attribute. It sure makes banning natural gas in new construction seem counterproductive. And buy a good uninterruptible power supply (UPS) if you are working at home and want to keep working.
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