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June 17, 2020



Wow. When I wrote the "Note" yesterday "we shall see how long that lasts" about younger employees preferring the city lifestyle I had no idea the SF Comicle would back me up the next day. Here's today front-page, above the fold piece:

SF tenants break leases in startling numbers, giving renters upper hand

One in 13 San Francisco renters have broken their lease since the coronavirus stay-home orders went into place nearly 100 days ago, an astonishing out-migration of tenants in the city that could lead to thousands of empty rental units and give renters the upper hand in negotiations.

A new survey from the San Francisco Apartment Association found that 7.5% of renters have broken their lease over the last three months. The survey included information from 292 landlords who own 10,329 apartments, about 6% of the city’s total rental units. “We don’t have a baseline to compare it to, but I think it’s shockingly high,” said Charley Goss, the association’s policy director. “A pretty substantial group of people are leaving.”

The biggest group of tenants breaking leases in San Francisco are Gen Z workers, those 18 to 25 years old, according to landlord and tenants groups.

“What is getting hit the hardest is the new construction in SoMa, Mission Bay and South Beach,” he said. “Mission Bay is really suffering because there is not much of a neighborhood there yet. It’s become a little bit of a ghost town.”

Rent declines in less dense parts of the city — older neighborhoods likely to have outdoor space and more room to work from home — are not as steep.


Growling Tiger

I am absolutely certain all those millennials moving back in with mom and dad from South Beach will immediately re-register to vote at their parent's address so their mailed ballots will be correct and can be harvested properly. Certain.

Joe Baylock

SF's downtown doom loop isn't going away anytime soon. Original post was 3 years ago. From today's WSJ:

Fire Sale: $300 Million San Francisco Office Tower, Mostly Empty. Open to Offers.

One building, a 22-story glass and stone tower at 350 California Street, was worth around $300 million in 2019, according to office broker estimates.

That building now is for sale, with bids due soon. They are expected to come in at about $60 million, commercial real-estate brokers say. That’s an 80% decline in value in just four years.

Many of the city’s most prominent corporate tenants, from Salesforce Inc. to Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc., are flooding the office market with space for sublet rather than waiting for their leases to expire.

Nearly 30% of San Francisco’s office space is vacant, which is more than seven times the rate before the pandemic hit, and the biggest increase of any major U.S. city, according to commercial real estate services firm CBRE Group Inc.
When will the state re-forecast their ridiculous housing numbers being foisted on every city in the state and backed with Bonta's arm-twisting? Asking for London Breed.

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