We tracked the Covid-19 numbers for the last six weeks here. That was entirely in the SIP timeframe, but things are loosening up in multiple directions now. Restaurants are reopening for dine-in service, non-essential stores are allowing limited numbers of people at a time, and churches are resuming live services; outdoors and with waivers in some cases. Essential stores are pretty crowded; Lowe's for example. The county as had several large demonstrations where social distancing was ignored. It feels like we might be at a tipping point in the coming week or two, so here are the baseline figures today from the county site at SMChealth.org.
In our county of 759,000 people 46,480 have been tested (about 6%). The positivity rate has been declining and is now 5.4% -- meaning we have either 2,528 or 2,553 cases --both numbers appear on the same data page. That's about 335 cases per 100,000. NYC has 2,460 cases per 100,000--more than seven times as many. The age distribution of cases in San Mateo County has shifted to younger people with 50% being in their 20's, 30's and 40's.
Let's see how things look again in a week.
I originally thought Santana was going to break the ice and do a show at Shoreline soon, but the music app I was reading just announced his show for a YEAR and two weeks away. Damn. Was hoping they would just sell every fourth or fifth seat staggered by row. Not a terrible idea actually.
Posted by: Joe | June 14, 2020 at 06:06 PM
Here we go. As of yesterday:
The county’s new health order, effective immediately after being released Wednesday afternoon, loosens restrictions on multiple businesses including gyms, race tracks, salons, barber shops and hotels for tourism. Family-friendly venues allowed to operate include zoos, museums, theaters, campgrounds and outdoor recreational facilities. Adult venues permitted to operate include wineries, bars, casinos and card rooms.
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What isn't included in that list? Church services of more than 100, but not much else.
We are at 2,678 cases and positivity has dropped another .2% to 5.2% as 5,388 more tests have been done since last Sunday (4 days ago).
Posted by: Joe | June 18, 2020 at 01:31 PM
There is no benefit to go to a church other than a social event.
Lets face the truth of all religion-
It is based on Faith.
Faith is the same as a wish.
Try to get a business loan and tell a Banker your collateral is Faith.
Posted by: hollyroller@gmail.com | June 18, 2020 at 06:39 PM
Checking in after the first weekend of a more open activity, we now have 2,285 cases--up 147 in four days of reporting. The positivity dropped another .2% to 5.0%. This should be a very telling week.
Posted by: Joe | June 22, 2020 at 01:21 PM
Today's count is 3,083, up 798 in five days (+35%). Ouch. Monday tied April 3rd as the highest day ever with 79. Positivity dropped another .1% to 4.9%. I'm betting the County backs-off on some reopening like SF and Marin have done. The question is how? It will be hard to put the dining genie back in the bottle.
Posted by: Joe | June 27, 2020 at 01:01 PM
The County reporting maybe through for the week because of the Fourth. And it was a big week for new cases, 3,441--up 358 since my last report including the biggest day yet at 86 on Monday. Every day this week was >60 which is a first.
64.5% of cases are people under 50. Several people have noted some lax behavior out there and BPD had to intervene in a mask-no mask altercation at the Farmer's Market this week.
Posted by: Joe | July 03, 2020 at 01:34 PM
They updated the numbers today--another big day yesterday: +87 and they added 2 to last Monday so it is still the highest day at +88.
Posted by: Joe | July 04, 2020 at 01:50 PM
Checking in at the end of the week, we find yesterday was a new all time high for new cases by a lot--108. We added 508 this week and it's skewing younger. The racial make-up popped out of the data more so than in the past (at least for me) as half of the the total since day 1 are Latino/Hispanic. That would appear to be double the percentage of the population: https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/sanmateocountycalifornia
SF is backing off of more business reopening that were due for Monday. We'll have to see what the County thinks about this with positivity stable at 4.9% and hospitalizations also pretty stable.
The county reformatted the website so city data is easy to find. B'game has 84 cases so far.
Posted by: Joe | July 11, 2020 at 01:17 PM
Here is the weekly check-up on the numbers. San Mateo county is the only Bay Area county not locking back down yet, but David Canepa is quoted in today's Chron saying he expects that on Monday. The county dashboard added a new metric called R-eff that gauges how many other people an infected person will infect. Greater than 1.0 means the rate the virus is spreading is increasing-- it's 1.10 now in the county.
Our count is 4,465 up 1,024 in two weeks. Positivity ticked up to 5.0% -- basically flat on almost 90,000 tests. Men have caught up to women and Latino/Hispanic is still running at twice the population percentage.
Burlingame has 101 cases; about the same as Millbrae and dwarfed by San Mateo's 827 cases. San Mateo is 3.4 times our size but has 8 times as many cases. Chew on that!
Posted by: Joe | July 18, 2020 at 11:57 AM
Read in the local paper that Canepa is against shutting down our as our patients include Sn Quentin inmates and patients from Southern California.
Posted by: Peter Garrison | July 18, 2020 at 03:47 PM
Pandemic?
There are 7,800,000,000 people on the planet. (https://www.worldometers.info/ on the planet)
Deaths are 603,000 covid deaths
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html --- if you believe they are accurately counted and they aren't counting people that were going to die by the end of the year with other diseases, or crashed their motorcycle but were carrying markers for the disease, etc.
603,000/7,800,000,000 =
0.00007730769 or 0.0077%
Pandemic?
really?
Worth destroying the world's economies? really?
We have been played.
I could understand reacting the way we did in February, maybe March when we didn't know how deadly this was. But now 8 months into this thing, with the death rate so low and the successful and cheap treatments available something else is going on.
Welcome to the new world order, and if my Burlingame neighbors and friends think they are going to get out of this thing unscathed owning their homes and enjoying the good life with the fruits of their nice portfolios they are fooling themselves.
Sorry this is not going to end well for you because you bought into this stuff because, you know, Orange Man Bad.
Posted by: uhap | July 19, 2020 at 03:50 PM
Mayor London Breed’s interview in Vogue may be the turning point as she calls out how the white performative wokeness has done nothing for Blacks in SF. The personal attacks and destruction of property has gone too far. She would “throw grits at them.”
People are starting to understand that Marxism and Socialism is just a way for the elites to use OPM (Other People’s Money) until the revolution eats her children.
In the progressive Vogue magazine!
Posted by: Cassandra | July 19, 2020 at 06:14 PM
In support of uhap's point we are entering earnings season and anyone who tells you what it will be like is full of tea.
I think uhap is expecting a double dip. There's a pretty good likelihood of that.
And to his other point about your houses if the professional flight to far places causes the housing market to flatten; probably won't drop but it has before, and you can't AirBnB it to make up for lost income we could see some changes in mindset. Then the question becomes how long Newsolini gets away with his power trip?
Posted by: Phinancier | July 19, 2020 at 06:51 PM
Cassandra, per your reference I went and read the vogue interview. I did not interpret the article the way you did. That mayor is just another leftist race hustler.
From my personal relationships I can say that people are NOT waking up to what socialism and marxism goals are. My lefty friends remain comfortably convinced that the goal is honorable and viable and if anything is wrong it is because people put a bad orange man in the white house. Sadly I find that my community of friends is shrinking by mutual choice. So be it.
Posted by: uhap | July 19, 2020 at 09:51 PM
Phinancier, a double dip assumes that the market can bounce back. I am more worried that this purposeful damage to the economy is going to finish off the power of the dollar and cause an earth shattering rebalancing of wealth. We are printing money to keep our wall street portfolios in the black while main street dies. And we can't keep printing money.
Instead a new currency will be established. One would think it is all part of a plan, but that would involve conspiracy thinking and I will not go there. But Rosa Koire ("hidden agenda") seems to have it figured out.
Posted by: uhap | July 19, 2020 at 10:08 PM
Here is the weekly update on the numbers as we passed through 5,000 cases county-wide yesterday (5,022). Last Monday was a new high water mark (+138), but the new case count for the week (+557) has been low enough to keep the county "open".
R-eff dropped a bit to 1.03 and the positivity rate help stable at 5.1% on almost 100K tests (recall there are about 760K people in the county).
Burlingame added 8 new cases for a total of 109 compared to San Mateo adding 68 this week. About 10% of all cases are in long-term care facilities.
Posted by: Joe | July 25, 2020 at 01:22 PM
I don't see a lot of people putting up links here so I will not do that but I highly recommend a video that came out today. It's a group of doctors on Capitol Hill talking about Covid, going against the lockdown. The West African doctor practicing in Houston is extremely passionate and will tear at your heart as she talks about her experience with hydroxychloroquine. She's a couple minutes into the 43 min video.
I watched it on youtube this morning but that link went away.. Hmmmm.
But I did find it again with a different link on youtube. I don't know but maybe that will also get taken down. So instead of posting brokenlinks I suggest just going to youtube and searching for "American Doctors Address COVID-19 Misinformation with Capitol Hill Press Conference".
If all of that video is suppressed by youtube you can find it on bitchute. Look for
"Dr. Stella Immanuel"
Posted by: uhap | July 27, 2020 at 05:51 PM
Dr. Immanuel also believes you can get cysts by dreaming about sex with demons. You should watch more of her stuff; sometimes cat sit mazey can be quite entertaining.
Posted by: BillyGBob | July 28, 2020 at 09:20 AM
Are u people even serious right now?!
Posted by: Ugh | July 28, 2020 at 04:57 PM
I wish I wasn’t, because some folks are taking her seriously.
Posted by: BillyGBob | July 28, 2020 at 05:54 PM
My chances of getting cysts are about the same as the Wuhan poo.
Posted by: JP | July 28, 2020 at 10:51 PM
Viable TV
Youtube
Posted by: Barking Dog | July 30, 2020 at 02:04 PM
The Saturday check-in is incomplete because there's no Friday data on the County website. For the week thru Thursday:
Cases: +522 (5,544 total)
Positivity: 5.2% (up a tenth)
Confirmed in hospital: 57
Burlingame cases: 118 (up 9)
I received this from a local workout business today:
"San Mateo County has been on the watch list as of Wednesday due to increasing COVID-19 cases and continued to be on the watch list for 3 consecutive days. Unfortunately, we will need to temporarily close our doors for at least 3 weeks, or until case numbers go down and San Mateo County allows us to reopen."
I don't get it unless Friday was some sort of blow-out new case day. Scott Morrow's 7/20 statement is his latest here: https://www.smchealth.org/coronavirus-health-officer-updates. But if you look at "the curve" and the positivity rate, it doesn't compute. And as he drifts into politics and making judgments about what is "immoral" in mult-decade trends, he starts to lose credibility as a public health officer.
Posted by: Joe | August 01, 2020 at 12:51 PM
The City newsletter has some details that explain:
Yesterday, the County of San Mateo was added to the 3-day enhanced monitoring phase for the State's watch list. (Learn more about the State's monitoring list here.) If the number of positive COVID-19 cases per 100,000 San Mateo County residents doesn't drop below 100 cases per day by end of day tomorrow, the State's watch list restrictions will take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, August, 1.
This means the following industries or activities must shut down, unless they can be modified to operate outside or by pick-up: gyms and fitness centers; places of worship and cultural ceremonies, like weddings and funerals; offices for non-critical infrastructure sectors; personal care services, like nail salons and body waxing; hair salons and barbershops, and shopping malls. Shops that offer tattoos, piercings, and electrolysis may not be operated outdoors and must close. Personal care services like hair salons can operate outside provided they follow State guidelines and the local municipality approves. The City of Burlingame has not determined yet whether or not such services will be permitted outside.
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But I have to ask: if the new cases are within a couple of percent of the prior week and the positivity rate is within a tenth of a percent, what number is really driving this?
Posted by: Joe | August 01, 2020 at 01:43 PM
Resist Underground?
Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not after you.
Posted by: Cassandra | August 02, 2020 at 08:27 AM