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June 14, 2020

Comments

resident

Guaranteed the pandemic will end on November 4th. Schools will magically reopen. Bars will reopen. Hair will be cut. All will be forgiven.

Cassandra

If Biden wins.

Corkalina

I see no data that ties the businesses being told to close to the increased cases. And the labeled businesses that I have patronized are following Covid-19 protocols. What I see is higher rate of infection amongst Latinos, hot spots in East Palo Alto and Redwood City. Furthermore, deaths are predominantly occurring in the 60-100+ categories.

I believe our civil liberties are being trampled upon. In a fashion I’ve never seen. Perhaps masking and social distancing may not slow the spread? Or maybe rioting does.

BillyGBob

Wow. Time to stockpile tinfoil because the Dear Leader Donald crazies are coming out (or just being less-selective about repeating troll-bot talking points). You honestly think this is about the US election? If so, then every European & Asian sports league shut down their season (and then only reopened without spectators) in response to efforts to influence the US election.

Joe

Thanks all. The back and forth is fun and somewhat informative. Regarding BGB's comment, perhapshe would care to address the Euro approach to schools reopening on schedule verses sports leagues.

I stopped by the County site since not getting Friday's count on Saturday was bugging me. And it should have bugged me: Friday 90, Saturday 84, Sunday 37. All below 100, so it seems the reshutdown is not proceeding via the established protocol.

BillyGBob

European countries are reopening schools only after infection rates drop below a certain threshold, regardless of whether it’s on-schedule. Similarly, sports leagues restarted only after rates were below a threshold, though that threshold was apparently higher than the one for schools (possibly due to a more-controlled environment and a significantly smaller number of people involved).

Bruce Dickinson

Folks, the way CA/the County counts the cases per 100,000 in population is really poorly worded and made no sense to me as I was doing the number in my head. So, Bruce Dickinson dispatched one of my assistants to look into it and this is how it's calculated: You take the cumulative new cases over the past 14 days, add them up and divide by the population of San Mateo County then multiply that result by 100,000. Again, the way it's referred to on the various websites is so misleading. So basically you need for there to be less than about 54 new cases per day for 14 days before SMC gets off the watchlist.

Bruce Dickinson's able-bodied (and well-paid) staff comes through again! AND you guys and the City of Burlingame get all these consulting services for free!

Joe

Thank you as usual, BD. Now we know we will be closed down for quite some time even though the positivity rate has barely budged (5.3% today). More testing equals more cases. No deep analysis needed to figure that out.

On the bright side:

Now, with just three weeks to go, Democrats in each house are showing hard feelings over which remaining proposals deserve a vote and which will have to wait until next year.
Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson, a Santa Barbara Democrat and chair of the Judiciary Committee, lamented in a July 23 letter to Assembly members that she was left with the “unpleasant task” of making the “extremely difficult and frustrating” choice to shave dozens of bills from the 80 assigned to her committee.

She isn’t the only Senate committee chair on the spot culling bills. Sens. Steve Glazer and Richard Pan told us about their own hard decisions trimming their calendars.
-----------------
A lot less damage emanating from Sacramento this session!

Joe

We have a Big Oops here since July 25th--a week and a half ago and encompassing the timeframe that SM County re-closed many buinesses:

County health officials are leading blind through a statewide coronavirus resurgence following news of a technical problem at the state level which has resulted in the distribution of incomplete lab testing data.

Callagy warned the public to not rely on the county dashboard data, calling the numbers inaccurate.

As of the weekend and until the county is removed from the watchlist, all indoor dining, hair salons, barbershops, gyms, and places of worship were required to close. Callagy, like many other local officials, said the restrictions are unwarranted and do not address the root cause for why the cases have surged.

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/officials-leading-blind/article_8f716ad2-d799-11ea-8a7b-0be0ff8450c3.html#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1596722405&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

You have to love that last bit.

Barking Dog

https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/San-Mateo-County-watch-list-Scott-Morrow-state-CA-15464983.php

Bruce Dickinson

Bruce Dickinson knows that some people have been griping about Scott Morrow and his last statement (which I think was hard to swallow because there was so much truth in it), however in my book, just taking into account everything he has said, he seems to be one of the few voices of logic and reason amid the chaos. He is absolutely right in that what is transmitting COVID are the gatherings of families and friends..it has zero to do with nail salons, barber shops and other businesses being open. In fact, by closing things down more, you are actually promoting people to get together at home with more family and friends and creating more potential virus spread. The opposite ban should be happening (controlling behavior at home), per his suggestion to really slow down the spread.

This is what you get when you have a Nanny State that tries to dictate every aspect of your life. It's pretty clear that some of these measures and statistics (including the one I had my able bodied staff calculate for edification) are pulled out of someone's derriere and really say nothing about how badly the virus is actually spreading and the overall risk to the community.

San Mateo County looks like it's in pretty good shape to me, and anyone advocating that there should be zero cases just isn't grounded in reality. All these protocols were about "flattening the curve and based on the hospital data, there is more than enough headroom to handle the cases.

Zero sickness is a fantasy outcome and reflects a really narrow understanding of what humans have faced in the past (e.g. Polio, Spanish Flu, Smallpox, etc).

We have lived way too comfortable lives..time to get a Street Smarts education from Professor Dickinson!

Joe

The news that the state's data is bad took a bit of wind out of the sails for reporting said data, but here are the reported changes for the last 11 days:

Cases: Up 1,096 to 6,640. Right at 100 per day.

Positivity: 5.4% up .2%

Burlingame cases: 130. Up 12 in 11 days.

resident

Biden on August 12

Former Vice President Joe Biden on Thursday called for a nationwide mask mandate to help fight the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Every American should be wearing a mask when they’re outside for the next three months at a minimum,” Biden told reporters in Wilmington, Del.

Like I said, right after Election Day

Joe

Here's the Saturday check-in on the data:

Total Cases: 8,074

Positivity: 5.6% (very stable)

R-eff: Big drop to .77 (the average number of people a case will infect, no indication of why the drop)

Burlingame cases: 172

The banners proclaiming the data is still incomplete from the state are still everywhere on the County site.

Cassandra

Based on the CDC's data, 94% of people have died with coronavirus, along with one or more other underlying health issues. The CDC's Aug. 28 update stated that there were 167,558 COVID-19 total deaths, which means 10,053 died solely of coronavirus alone with no other health conditions.
The CDC's figures are derived from provisional death counts, which are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Compare with number of businesses ruined?

BillyGBob

So...if i get your “logic”, if I have a torn ACL (certainly an underlying health condition) and get killed by a DUI driver running a red light because my leg couldn’t get me out of the way, my death can not be used as a reason to try to reduce or eliminate DUIs. Or God forbid, I was born with an autoimmune disease that meant I couldn’t fight off covid....thanks for sacrificing me on the altar of someone else’s economic benefit.

According to the CDC, 47% of US adults have health conditions that put them at risk for severe COVID-19. That’s why we lock down, wear masks, and wash hands.

The HepCat

It's not "someone else's economic benefit". It's every freaking person's economic benefit. The whole dang country. The lockdown is hurting millions of people in ways we don't even comprehend right now, so yeah. Meander up to the alter.

Barking Dog

https://thedcpatriot.com/bombshell-cdc-says-94-of-all-covid-19-deaths-had-underlying-medical-conditions/

Joe

Here's the Saturday check-up:

543 new cases this week (8,617 total), so less than 100 per day.

Positivity stable at 5.7%

R-eff stable at 0.79

The county webpage for cases-by-city is unresponsive, so no update on B'game cases.

It looks like playgrounds will be the next battlefield:

Sheila Canzian, the Parks and Recreation director of San Mateo said in a statement that city staff share frustrations of residents, adding “not much in this pandemic has made sense,” but noted local municipalities cannot implement less restrictive guidelines than that of the state.

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/parents-call-for-playgrounds-to-reopen-following-expanded-business-operations-in-san-mateo-county/article_d909dd6a-ef21-11ea-93c7-4f9fa3c18be6.html

Joe

The County website resolved its problem. Burlingame now has 189 cases, so +17 this week.

Joe

Here is your Saturday check-in on the numbers since last week:

New Cases: 460....less than 100 per day.

Positivity: 5.7%....exactly the same.

R-eff: .95....up about .2 but no explanation for why.

New cases in B'game: 18

And in news you likely won't read in the Chronicle:

Leaders of some rural California counties are accusing Gov. Gavin Newsom of improperly withholding federal coronavirus relief funds to force them to slow business reopenings.

In an effort to support those county supervisors, California’s seven-member GOP congressional delegation on Friday asked the U.S. Treasury Department’s Inspector General to audit California’s approach to distributing the relief money.

The letter says California is “creating winners and losers,” among counties with its approach and may be violating the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, which was signed by President Trump in March.

States were responsible for distributing the money to other local governments, including 95% of U.S. counties, according to the National Association of Counties, an advocacy group based in Washington, D.C. Only 16 of California’s 58 counties got their money directly from the federal government.

Mr. Newsom waited until he had signed the state budget on June 29 before allowing the money to begin flowing to the state’s smaller cities and counties.
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One has to wonder if this is part or all of the reason why SMC is going so slowly in the face of modest numbers of new cases???

Cassandra

Have to stop voting for Democrats...
So easy.
Gov. Newsom complains about the climate about which he can’t be held personally responsible, but wastes money on HSR instead of investing the money in forest management.

resident

Where is the like button, Cassandra?

hmm

You mean those NATIONAL forests? So,a decade long drought, soaring temps and random lightning events that I have never seen in my 36 years here have nothing to do with these fires? Should they install irrigation out in the wilderness?
PGE is off the hook this year however so blame the Democrats (?)

Sign Me Up

Regardless of Joe's water concerns (that are well founded) the last two years have not been drought years. Last year was a huge water year and this year was not bad. This is terrible forest management plain and simple. Newsom can try to not let a good catastrophe go to waste with his climate change speeches but it still his and Jerry Brown's fault. Plain and simple. Temperatures are not far off normal and lightning is not as rare as 36 year bay area people would like to think. It's Paradise all over again. If Newsom wants to be president before Kamala he needs to do better.

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