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May 05, 2020

Comments

Bruce Dickinson

You know what Bruce Dickinson says, Joe? I say that "in every profession there is a bell curve of talent." For example, let's say you need to find a heart surgeon. Most people will go to the local hospital and get one. But is that person really the best in their profession? Are they in the top decile or bottom decile? Just because being a doctor requires a lot of medical school and book smarts doesn't mean that all doctors are created equally. Some are really really good, most are average and some are really really bad. And the outcomes of their heart procedures can be measured (success rate).

Well, the same goes for real estate. Here you have this developer, who paid top dollar for the land (pre-COVID) and let's assume it's full speed ahead with the build. Talk about top-ticking the market! Yes I expect this with Burlingame and it's Rec Center as the decision makers aren't really well schooled in economics; however to basically say I'm going to build one of the largest multifamily units in Burlingame in an industrial location, right before a recession, seems like a really bad investment with awful timing.

Maybe if the developer waits a few years to wait for materials and labor to cheapen up..but then you're selling into a depressed market when people are unlikely to pay the same level of rent per unit as they are today.

Trust me I don't care how big the developer or investor, you will still see colossal mistakes being made, as in every profession there is that bottom tail that just isn't as competent.

Let these guys make the mistakes. I think overall you are going to see new real estate development plummet in the next 12-18 months while unemployment rise and that "housing shortage" will soon be correcting itself.

COVID has changed our world and previous notions of economics, valuation and markets are going to be changed for a long time to come!

Mom

Several of these new big buildings are Summerhill's doing. Maybe they should build a school in the industrial area. We could call it Summerhill School.

Concerned

The Post COVID-19 world is not being considered.

BART is no longer a feature.

John Q ByTheBay

From various discussions (whether informed, hypothetical, or based on assumptions), it appears that the "city" is trying deal with the state's push for more housing and greater density in bay area cities by dumping as many units as possible into mega projects (such as this one, or the one by 101 south of broadway). Their goal may actually be to push these units as far away from existing "low density" residential housing as possible to minimize political fallout. However, if so, they are creating some really ugly, blocky projects, that aren't integrated well into the community, with all the traffic, education, etc issues brought up above. Actually, since they aren't next to anything, it will actually force more cars/traffic to get to schools, shopping, etc. While it might not satisfy the state's high density goals, I'd rather see some better thought out projects, that were a better blend of single and multi-family units, and better integrated into our town.

Paloma Ave

Burlingame should get together with other suburban cities and tell hte state no more housing.

MBGA

I had to look that address up too. Maybe the new residents can all get jobs at the Beverly Coat Hanger Co.

Slow growth

Come election time would it be possible to list the council members who voted for stuff like this? It would be helpful when i vote. Thanks!

MBGA

slow growth, I agree.

Joe

From the Daily Journal piece headlined San Mateo County home building industry on shaky ground

SummerHill Housing Group CEO Robert Freed speculated that the slowed economy may yield difficulties for some developers seeking funding for new developments.

“Projects that haven’t come out of the ground yet might have trouble with financing,” he said.

Other industry experts agreed, with expectations that banks may be reticent to lend money for developments amid an unstable economy. These anxieties are heightened by local officials establishing rent moratoriums and other restrictions on the flow of money into the real estate sector, setting off a chain reaction of debt and risk sensitivities.

“I would not be surprised if the financial basis for these projects might be teetering a little bit,” said Burlingame Community Development Director Kevin Gardiner.
----------------
One can hope I suppose...............


https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/san-mateo-county-home-building-industry-on-shaky-ground/article_4ed4c82c-9336-11ea-81a6-777d11dc8983.html#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1589205614&utm_medium=email&utm_content=read%20more

Joe

4-0, 3 absent at Planning:

A key project expected to open the door for development of a new neighborhood in north Burlingame received glowing reviews from officials who blessed construction of 298 apartments near the Millbrae border.

The Burlingame Planning Commission unanimously approved, by a 4-0 vote with three commissioners absent, plans submitted from SummerHill Apartment Communities to construct a sweeping residential development and new park at 30 Ingold Road.

The development, which still needs a final approval from councilmembers, is expected by officials to help the area north of Broadway transform into a residential hub where additional, similar projects are planned to follow along Rollins Road.

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/sweeping-burlingame-development-advances/article_7c41d81c-0f65-11eb-98e3-f31251a6df0a.html#utm_source=smdailyjournal.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Fheadlines%2F%3F-dc%3D1602856820&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

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