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November 25, 2019

Comments

pat b

Thanks again Joe - great article. You nailed it, with everyone working around here, getting the adequate number of people hired is tough, even with this pay that's better than UBER/Lyft pay!!

Joe

Here's a bit of what is at stake with the census:

California is poised to lose a congressional seat for the first time in its history as a state, based on U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released Monday that showed the nation’s growth continued to slow in 2019.

About 203,000 people left California in that period, a result of the state’s shifting migration patterns and economic strains that are making it harder to afford living here. (Ed: Or perhaps the declining quality of life for those who can afford to stay--or leave - might have something to do with it).

California’s potential loss in reapportionment, which will be determined by next year’s census count, would drop the state’s number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives from 53 to 52, said William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-31/la-me-ln-california-apportionment-2020-census

Joe

It looks like I was premature with this census post--I should have held out for a Big Check from the County:-)

A contract with Storefront Political Media of San Francisco to motivate residents to complete the 2020 census will double to $600,000 if San Mateo County Supervisors go along Tuesday with a staff recommendation.

https://www.smdailyjournal.com/news/local/county-to-double-pr-contract-for-census/article_e51a8642-56b3-11ea-bb0a-1b49a1c0c35b.html

Joe

2020 Census suspends field operations because of coronavirus.

The U.S. Census Bureau suspended all employee field operations on Wednesday (today), citing concerns about coronavirus.

Joe

Just a heads-up, people. This week the US Census mailed out the little blue cards with your personal login codes on the front (under the barcode). They didn't exactly get explicit that you need that code to login and complete your questionaire, so if you thought it was just a reminder (or was a Planning Department notice of a project near you--it looks just like those blue cards), then go dig it out of the recycling bin.

Joe

Dan Walters at Calmatters.org weighed with some early expectations about the census:

Even before the triumvirate of crises (pandemic, recession, civic unrest) erupted, California officials were worried about the census. They knew that California’s very slow population growth put it on the bubble for losing one of its 53 congressional districts. They were also concerned that conducting the census mostly via the Internet could lead to an undercount because of the state’s large immigrant community, its high level of poverty and its many languages.

The state’s last population estimate, issued in May, was a net gain of just 87,984 in 2019. A declining birthrate, an increasing death rate, low immigration from other countries and a net loss of population in state-to-state movements contribute to near-zero growth.

A new analysis of population trends by Claremont McKenna College’s Rose Institute concludes that it’s certain California will lose one congressional seat and could easily lose two “if California’s COVID-impaired 2020 Census count lags behind other states.”

The analysis also concluded that coastal Southern California, which has been growing more slowly than the state as a whole, would likely be the big loser if, indeed, the state’s congressional delegation shrinks. That depends, however, on who’s drawing districts after the census data are released — another point of contention.

https://calmatters.org/commentary/dan-walters/2020/07/california-census-congress-seats/

Joe

This data is too good not to capture so I'll add it to the census post as an election adjunct:

A Stanford Law School case study on signature verification and mail ballots, released in May, found that procedures for checking signatures vary from county to county. While state law bars a ballot from being rejected for mismatched signatures without an election official signing off, counties come to that final decision in different ways.

In March, Los Angeles County, with 1.1 million mail ballots, rejected 267 for mismatched signatures. San Mateo County, with just under 200,000 mail ballots, eliminated 1,169. It was a similar story in Sonoma County, which rejected 969 of its 154,000 mail ballots for bad signatures.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Sloppy-handwriting-could-get-your-mail-ballot-15417280.php

Ouch! If we take San Mateo's elimination rate as a baseline, L.A eliminated just 4.2% of the ballots that should have been eliminated.........

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