Month: October 2019

  • As I was reading yesterday's WSJ article about coastal cities decrying the impending sea level rise on one hand and essentially ignoring the risk in their municipal bond disclosures, I flashed on the B'game bayfront and the bonds we are about to issue for the Rec Center rebuild.  The Journal article notes

    The Government Accountability Institute undertook a yearlong study of 40 major cities to find out if mayors’ apocalyptic projections about climate risks are factored into the interest rates on the municipal bonds their cities issue. The results revealed a gulf between the words municipal leaders speak and the disclosures cities make. There was no statistically significant difference in the interest rates for bonds issued by cities in high-risk locations for climate-change devastation versus those issued by low-risk cities.

    The study also found scant mention of climate change in bond disclosure documents. The disclosure statements of the 20 at-risk cities totaled 4,361 pages. Phrases like “climate change” and “sea-level rise” appeared fewer than 100 times across all 20 at-risk cities in the context of the issues addressed in this study. Further, 12 out of the 20 disclosures for at-risk cities did not mention climate language in the same context.

    When they got to discussing Oakland, it felt very close to home indeed since our sea level is their sea level

    Worse, “by 2050, a ‘100-year flood’ in the Oakland vicinity is expected to occur on average once every 2.3 years and by 2100 to occur 44 times per year or almost once per week.” The lawsuit added that “Oakland is projected to have up to 66 inches of sea level rise by 2100.” The city alleged this would “imminently threaten Oakland’s sewer system” and harm property with a “total replacement cost of between $22 and $38 billion.”

    Contrast that detailed, dramatic language with Oakland’s bland, measured 2017 bond risk disclosure to investors: “The City is unable to predict when seismic events, fires or other natural events, such as sea rise or other impacts of climate change or flooding from a major storm, could occur, when they may occur, and, if any such events occur, whether they will have a material adverse effect on the business operations or financial condition of the City or the local economy.”

    That looks like an "oopsy" to me.  Which is it?  Is Oakland 30 years from disaster on a semi-annual basis which for a major port city would be a financial Titanic or are they unable to predict any of this?  We will have to have our local bond expert(s) weigh in on the B'game disclosures of same.

    Sea level plan_DJ5

  • Dear old Burlingame was not so boring this past weekend, especially Friday night on Broadway.  I was having cognitive dissonance while having dinner at Il Piccolo and enjoying a really nice jazz trio plus singer.  The trumpet player in particular was really fun and played some credible Miles Davis songs.  The cognitive dissonance continued as I walked past Behan's and heard a fun duo playing rock standards and it peaked at Broadway Grill where the band-in-the-balcony was fronted by four singers on the main floor.  That split presentation was a little odd, but it worked.  Maybe there is hope for Boringame after dark, after all.  Here is the Il Piccolo trio.

    Il Piccolo trio

    Fall Fest brought four more bands to Howard Ave. over the weekend, and the Vinyl Room continues to host bands on Friday nights.

  • There are several news pieces highlighting the California Auditor's release of a top-to-bottom ranking of California cities' financial risk using ten metrics that combine into an "overall risk" rating of red/yellow/green.  Most of them don't bother to include the website link so here you go.  Naturally, the first question I had was "Where does Burlingame rate?"  I was expecting bright green, but alas we are ranked #220 riskiest out of 471 cities earning us a yellow overall rating.  San Bruno, Millbrae and H'borough are green overall while San Mateo joins us in the yellow category.

    You have to work at it on the site to see how each of the ten contributing factors play into the rating– but that's what I'm here for:

    Liquidity:  Green

    Debt Burden:  Yellow  (And rising.  Will the Rec Center bonds move us to Red?)

    General Fund Reserve:  Green

    Revenue Trends:  Yellow  (Adding a lot of housing won't help this)

    Pension Obligations:  Yellow

    Pension Funding:  Yellow (But lots of red in the cities around us)

    Pension Costs:  Green

    Future Pension Costs:  Yellow  (But again, lots of red around us)

    OPEB Obligations:  Green  (Other post-employment benefits like medical and dental)

    OPEB  Funding:  Red

    So overall we are in the middle of the pack and yellow.

  • It is important that we have elections at the local level.  Candidates, incumbents and challengers alike, need to have the forum and walking around time to make their case to the public and for the public to provide input in a way that doesn't happen as much in non-election periods.  So challenger Mike Dunham is to be commended for throwing his hat in the ring against two strong incumbents–Donna Colson and Emily Beach.  He had to know it would be an uphill climb from the start, but as far as I can see he has mounted a credible campaign knocking on doors, doing debates and getting his points of view known.  While this race isn't as crowded as in the past as Russ noted here, it's still a race.

    I have had one-on-one interviews with all three candidates and took copious notes at the Candidates' Night on Sept. 18th.  I discussed one issue that had a difference of opinion between the incumbents and challengers – pot dispensaries in town here.  But clearly the big area of difference is housing in town — how much, how "affordable", how soon and where it should be built.  Ten of the twenty questions at the Candidates' Night were housing related.  If I boil it all down, the difference is that the incumbents believe they have enacted enough change via the General Plan update setting guidelines for 3,000 new units, the Lot F&N project, and developer fees to grow our housing stock as fast as is feasible.  The challenger, Mike Dunham, believes not enough is being done (e.g. "cities have failed to do their jobs") and the job:housing ratio is way out of balance; he believes it should be 1.5:1.  He said he would be fine with us not building anything on the Bayfront, but now that the General Plan has opened Pandora's Bayfront box we should also be adding housing on the Bayfront.

    No regular Voice reader will be surprised to hear that I'm less enamored with adding housing than even the two incumbents.  I foresee issues with school classroom capacity, police and fire responsiveness, traffic congestion, and water supply reliability.  There are probably other deleterious impacts, but that is enough for now.  Mike Dunham has some positions that could ameliorate the problems– adding a "head tax" on large employers adding more employees, building dense mixed-use projects downtown that he believes millennials like better, rent control, and making more street parking subject to residential parking permits.  He also suggested acknowledging that sea-level rise on the Bayfront is inevitable so we should just plan on abandoning some of that property in forty years since defending the turf will be too expensive.  In my opinion, some of these would work better than others and some are just plain counter-productive, but the issue is whether any will ever really happen?

    I have to balance all of that with the incumbents' track records.  The city is pretty well run fiscally, decisions are transparent (which was not always the case 20+ years ago on the city council) and Colson and Beach are certainly approachable, available and energetic.  They also comport themselves in a professional manner.  One of the reasons I wait to make my recommendations is to see if other information becomes available, and a commenter on the first election post brought to our attention a May 2018 post by Mike Dunham that fails the professionalism criteria in my opinion.  Mike chose to have "no comment" on it when I asked him about it which is his prerogative, but when in office a politician has to own his or her actions.

    When all is said and done, I will be voting for the two incumbents.  We collectively know a lot more about them than we did four years ago and both Donna and Emily have demonstrated commendable skills and energy in office.  I'm very glad we have had a wide-ranging debate over the last several months to reinforce my perspective.  You have two more weeks to register your opinion at the ballot box.

    IMG_8713

  • Notices of two new, potentially useful apps arrived today courtesy of SFO airport and the CalTech/Berkeley/USGS consortium working on the earthquake alert system.

    At www.flysfo.com/noise you can now see the permanent noise monitor readings and view the air traffic around SFO.  The noise abatement page has always been where you can file a noise complaint–for what that's worth.  The permanent noise monitors look like the one I had at my house for a couple of weeks.  The web page is updated in real time, but there is no indication of which noise level is being reported.  I have bookmarked the page and will be monitoring the monitors when it gets loud as it did two evenings ago.  Watching it for just a few minutes, it appears that the Hillsborough monitor consistently reports in at 2-5 points higher than the southern Burlingame site.

    On the shaking front, the state has opened up the MyShake app to the public.  It arrived in the Apple App store yesterday and I have downloaded it.  The Chronicle article notes a Google Play version is also available and reports

    Cell-phone alerts will be issued only when the system’s sensors detect a quake with a magnitude greater than 5.0 and a complex set of algorithms projects the shaking will cause significant damage. Just a couple such temblors hit California each year.

    Alerts via the MyShake app will go out for earthquakes that exceed 4.5 magnitude and to areas projected to have minor shaking, about what would be felt in a building struck by a truck, said Richard Allen, director of UC Berkeley’s Seismological Laboratory and one of the architects of the warning system.

    After the three reminders about earthquakes we have had in the last two weeks, it is a timely addition to your phone.

  • Golden State Warriors "Outsiders" Drew Shiller and Grant Liffmann stopped by the Rec Center Monday night as part of a Park & Rec Foundation fund-raising speaker series.  Both young men grew up in B'game and played sports here before going on to bright turns in college.  What started as a bootstrapped show on Facebook Live has blossomed.  Now they are the "voice of the common man" on TV right after Warriors games.  They have drawn enough attention as Outsiders for their relaxed format to be copied around the country by other pro basketball teams and now pro football (the Eagles).  Grant is also doing some other announcing and looks to have a career in the making.

    Attendees got almost two hours of discussion and all the Q&A the crowd of about 40 people could muster.  The pitch resembled the guys' show which is not surprising since their approach in TV is to give the impression of two guys sitting around talking basketball.  We got some insights on their careers, on specific players, the NBA, and the new Chase Center where the Outsiders will have a nice new studio.  They certainly will be better situated at Chase than at the "Wreck Center"  (hat tip to Hollyroller on the nickname) where we endured the harsh florescent lights and hard chairs.  Grant and Drew need audience support so follow them on Facebook, Instagram and watch their show–especially if the Warriors lose which they predict will be much more common this year than we have become accustomed to.

    IMG_8937

  • There is big news of a positive nature on our poor beleaguered post office on Park Road ("the old post office").  A new developer has struck a deal to take over design and construction of condos, ground floor retail and underground parking while preserving the historic parts of the structure–as required by its historic designation.  This is welcome news on several fronts–the last proposed design was not good, but especially because the building has been languishing for years and was in danger of suffering "demolition by neglect".

    The new developer, Saris Regis, has engaged BAR Architects out of the city to start over from scratch and from what the press release on the deal says, it appears Lot E next door will be dedicated to a Town Square feature which downtown could really use.  It just doesn't show B'game in a good light to have, for instance, the First Friday bands playing under a tiny pergola on the Ave. with people stopping on the sidewalk for a song or two.

    Saris Regis isn't known as simply a design and construction management firm, so my guess is there is another part of the story that would include an outright purchase that can be solidified as the project details — and the ensuing approvals — come to pass.  This is all good news and to the extent it has had several council members' attention and effort being expended to come up with a more B'game appropriate design, they are to be congratulated.

    It's my practice to not criticize development project (too much) until they are finished so I'll withhold too much praise in the same vein, but this does look like positive news for B'game's core.

  • Out of the blue, when we were least expecting it, Caltrans has ridden to the rescue of a substantial part of El Camino Real.  And the folks in town are all excited.  At the city council candidates' forum three weeks ago, I asked the question "what can be done for a short-term fix of El Camino as we await the multi-tens of millions of dollar Big Fix being worked on by the Task Force?"  It was question #4 of the evening and drew murmurs from the small crowd assembled.

    Mayor Colson went first and noted that even though it is a state highway, our Public Works crews jump in and fill potholes on occasion, but otherwise we have a commitment from Caltrans on the Big Fix.  Emily Beach echoed that.  Mike Dunham noted there is no perfect answer, but his long term vision would be for more public transit by introducing dedicated bus lanes.  Not quite sure how one does that on a four-lane road, but we'll leave that for later.

    In the meantime, let's luxuriate in the 15 sections of fresh asphalt that have been laid down in the right southbound lane–some of them quite lengthy.  Reading between the lines of the answer to my question three weeks ago, no one saw this coming.  Could there be more in the works–maybe on the northbound side?  Only the Shadow knows.

    New ECR Pavement

  • There have been a number of crazy rent control proposals floating around California and now five of them have actually been passed into law.  Rather than me describe the Unintended Consequences, let's let a Berkeley professor (in the actual subject matter being discussed) lay it out.  The Comicle buried the lead at the bitter end of today's article

    Kenneth Rosen, chair of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business and a real estate consultant, said California was making a mistake by adopting a cap on rent increases.

    Research on local rent-control ordinances has found they reduce the supply of rental housing, Rosen said, by encouraging landlords to convert apartment units to condominiums or other uses and diminishing the incentive for developers to build new housing.  The rent cap will become a floor for many landlords, he added, who will raise prices by the maximum amount allowed each year — which is far higher than annual rent increases recently.

    “From a housing policy point of view, nothing could be worse,” Rosen said. “It’s going to make housing less affordable.”

    There you have it.  I'm guessing empty units are being pulled off the market as we speak in buildings more than 15 years old.  Next up?  A ballot measure to break down Prop 13 by going to "split rolls" separating commerical property from residential treatment and raising rates.  If this passes you can plan on much more pain for brick and mortar retailers and restaurants on B'way and the Avenue as the rents jump.

  • I have to hand it to Cynthia Cornell.  I've been following Burlingame politics for 25+ years and I have seen very few people climb up on such a high horse as Ms. Cornell.  And that is saying something.  Rather than just opine about her, let's use her own words from a letter to the Daily Journal yesterday as evidence.  She is writing about a Peninsula Health Care District board meeting where she expects the board to just give away a huge chunk of B'game real estate to whoever can make "comprehensive 100% affordable senior and workforce housing" pencil out.  Any educated person knows that cannot be done without more taxpayer money being shoveled in at some point.  She then writes

    There is no possible excuse to build any market-rate housing on public land during this housing crisis.

    Really?  I'll bet I could walk into Lunardi's, Behan's, or Alana's and find dozens of people who might think "Gee, if it's public land perhaps the general public should get at least some of the benefit from its development instead of it all going to 'affordable' whatever".  They might think "mission creep" at our Health Care district is a bad thing.  Perhaps the community might think the sweetheart project on Lots F & N right downtown is enough of a public donation to her crusade.  She complains about board members Dennis Zell and Helen Galligan and puts words in their mouths that are quote-free and rely her impression of what was said, and then states

    We (that would be the Royal "we") are shocked by the behavior  of these elected officials.  Were it not for the great leadership of Congresswoman Jackie Speier and support from state Sen. Hill and Assemblyman Kevin Mullin, D- South San Francisco, the board would continue to ignore the community voice.

    What blather.  Her Highness Cornell doesn't speak for the community.  She doesn't even speak for a third of the community from where I sit.  The woman has never run for anything; never mind actually win an election.  Zell and Galligan are both well-known in the community for years and have won elections.  This stream of nonsense will continue as it has for some time as noted here.

    But if either Zell and Galligan did tell Speier's staffer to "stay in her lane" as Cornell asserts in her letter, I say "Good on ya."  Maybe they should stay in their lane, let the local electeds do their job – which in my mind means keeping our Health Care district out of the housing business — an take the consequences at the next election.

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