Earthquake Warning: 3 Months Without Water

The SF Chronicle is reporting on a USGS study about the impact of a major quake in the Bay Area--something they say is overdue

While nearly 113 years have passed without a major earthquake on the fault from the Peninsula north, the quiet will end. It could happen tomorrow or next week or decades from now. When it does, hundreds of thousands if not millions of people will feel the ground shake like they’ve never felt before.  Based on current understanding of earthquake recurrence, that’s a statistical anomaly, according to a report this month from U.S. Geological Survey scientists.  According to a 1,000-year earthquake history of those fault branches, the chances that not a single site would experience a major temblor in any given 100-year period is about 0.3%, the paper said.

Yep, we are riding on a 0.3% wave of luck.  Burlingame is doing more than most to prepare for this by way of our annual Neighborhood Network disaster drills, supply caches, ham radio courses and the like we discussed here.  The added bit of information from the USGS study is that a major quake on our San Andreas fault would have the probability of causing 3.7 million people to go without water for the following periods of time:

1-3 days has a 60% probability

1 week has a 58% probability

1 month has a 48% probability

3 months with no water has a 30.5% probability

Wow.  It's basically 50/50 that we would have to go a month without running water.  That is one of the reasons I believe we should be strengthening the Hetch Hetchy pipeline, building more reservoirs and limiting further population growth until we have done that.  It is somewhere between sad, ironic and scary that plenty of politicians read the headlines about the IPCC's 100 year climate change model and want immediate action, but this much nearer and more identifiable threat goes unnoticed.  Forewarned is forearmed.  This year's drill is Saturday, October 12th.  Put it on your calendar and if you don't have a group working in your part of B'game, think about volunteering.

Update:  I just got my 33 gallon water barrel with pump and preservatives to last 5 years from our local B'game preparedness experts, Earthshakes.com.  $143 all in and very well worth it.  Here it is

 

Comments

[Joe]

More evidence of the problem:

The groundwater beneath the Central Valley has been steadily depleting, particularly as the state’s $50 billion agricultural industry relied on it during a series of droughts. Each year, more water exits the aquifer than goes into it.

The study from Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences, published in the journal Water Resources Research, found that unless action is taken, the ground in that region will sink more than 13 feet over the next 20 years.

Former Gov. Jerry Brown in 2014 signed a law to increase regulation of over-drafted groundwater basins. It takes effect gradually. By 2020, newly formed groundwater management agencies must develop plans to make their aquifers sustainable.

After he signed the law, farmers dug hundreds of new wells. In 2016 alone, Central Valley farmers created 2,500 new wells, according to a Sacramento Bee analysis of state records.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/big-valley/article229148999.html

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Excellent Report Joe.
Water is the most basic and necessary element needed for life. From Drinking, to Sanitation. It is difficult to comprehend an event like this-earthquake, happening when the world goes around so quickly.
Scary.

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[Joe]

Check out my update showing the 33 gallon emergency water barrel I just got from our local company, Earthshakes.com.

[Joe]

The Fourth of July quake of 2019 is another reminder to be prepared:

The largest earthquake in two decades rattled Southern California on Thursday morning, shaking communities from Las Vegas to Long Beach and ending a quiet period in the state’s seismic history.

Striking at 10:33 a.m., the magnitude 6.4 temblor was centered about 125 miles northeast of Los Angeles in the remote Searles Valley area of Kern County.

Before Thursday, it had been almost five years since the state experienced an earthquake of magnitude 6 or stronger. Experts had said the period of calm was sure to end, and when it did it would likely bring destruction.

[Joe]

Just in case you needed another warning/reminder:

Friday’s (i.e. Today's) 7.1 and Thursday’s (i.e Yesterday's) 6.4 both had epicenters near the community of Ridgecrest. The Thursday quake was already the biggest to hit Southern California in 20 years. The quake Friday evening obliterated that mark. The 6.4 quake is now considered a foreshock to Thursday’s event.

Friday evening, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued a statement offering his and the state’s “heartfelt support” to those in the region affected by the quake.

(Oh, great. While the Gavinor is busy spouting off about "free" health care for illegal immigrants and "free" college tuition, he has "heartfelt support" over earthquakes. Remember a 7.0 is 10x a 6.0 and we are on our own for 48 hours to a full month as noted above).

[Peter Garrison]

Of course my kid is camping up the valley from Ridgecrest and the earthquake swarms are following him up the valley; or, more likely, he’s somehow responsible...

[Joe]

Everyone got their reminder Saturday morning. Water is key to preparedness.

Please also look for your closest BNN city-wide disaster preparedness drill -- fun for the whole family -- on Saturday at 9 am all over B'game.

[resident]

There was a 3.6 size reminder on Saturday. I hope everyone takes a look at their kit and updates stuff as needed.