The Burlingame Voice

Airbnb Growth Continues

I know a couple of B'gamers who have successful Airbnb or VRBO hosts as neighbors.  For the most part, it works OK as long as there is enough parking and the noise is under control.  B'game is popular as a last-night-of-the-trip stay for people flying out of SFO; especially on those early morning flights we hear so often.  As Airbnb preps for its IPO, the size of the operation is slowing coming into view via its filings.  The Chronicle piece was mostly focused on the city, but it did include this tidbit of info that we can keep for future reference

Airbnb said it had 44 percent annual growth in guest arrivals in the five counties surrounding San Francisco, without specifying how that affected regional revenue.

I'm guessing B'game was at or above the five county average increase.  According to the B'game Urban Water Management Plan, residential use accounted for 59% of the potable water demand during the 2011-15 period.  Single-family was 41% and multi-family was 17% of the total demand.  Airbnb adds to this demand, but the question is by how much?  The other question is "Why not apply the transit occupancy tax (ToT) to these stays as well?  I'm sure the hotels would be in favor and there is a cost basis to do it.

Caltrain Forecast = Train Noise Forecast

Phil Matier at the SF Comicle has a bead on the Transbay Transit Center problems and just added another item to the list of woes.  It's the capacity of the brand new terminal!  Turns out that if the predictions for Caltrain's growth are accurate, the terminal might be too small--and that may be the case even without high-cost rail making it to EssEff.  But here in B'game most people are more concerned with the train horns, so here is the prediction

Caltrain expects to see its ridership more than quadruple over the next 20 years to 250,000 riders a day, once it converts from diesel to electric trains.  But now there are questions over whether there is enough room in the underground station to handle the 12 to 16 trains per hour Caltrain may need to run into the city to handle all those new passengers.

“Our initial analysis shows that at least 10 trains per hour can be accommodated in the terminal,” (Caltrain spokesman Seamus) Murphy said. Meaning that Caltrain could be two to six trains short on platform space.  And that’s without high-speed rail, if it ever comes.

If this was phrased accurately, 12 to 16 trains per hour inbound to SF means 12 to 16 outbound as well so that could be 32 passes through B'game per hour--one train every two minutes.  And you thought the Broadway intersection was a bit of a mess now.........You might ask, "What about the grade separation?"  Here is the tentative schedule for the planning -- while noting that the actual construction funds are a long way from being in hand.  Having spent 30+ years in the forecasting business, I can tell you not to get too worked up about a train every two minutes just yet, but it bears watching...and listening.

Our Future with Facebook

During a lovely bike ride through B'game and over the Rosalie O'Mahony bike bridge then turning south towards what was once a popular drive-in movie site, I was faced with the same spider web of steel beams we have all seen from a distance.  Here's a view of our future.

And the Oscar for most asked question in town goes to "How are all of those people going to get to work?"

Developer Fees Coming

Ronald Reagan is famous for saying “Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”  This has been proven over and over again.  I was reminded of the quote when I read that B'game Planning Commission is recommending a "Developer Fee" for new residential development.  The DJ notes the amounts as

Under the proposal, rental developers seeking to build up to 50 units per acre would be required to pay $17 per square foot; those proposing up to 70 units per acre would be required to pay $20 per square foot; and those proposing more than 70 units per acre would be required to pay $30 per square foot. Condominium developers proposing 7 units or more would be required to pay $35 per square foot.

That last bit seems like a typo, but the point is adding some costs that could total $15 mil over the next five years for the 400-600 units that are in the "pipeline" may have the unintended consequence of slowing down development.  If it does, I'm all for it, but that ain't what the initial goal is.  What to do with $15 mil and where to do it is another political football.  While we ponder that eventuality, here is another Reagan quote: "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

High-Cost Rail - Part 147 Partially Pulling the Plug

Yesterday's big news that Gov. Newsom has a new, much smaller approach to high-speed rail was welcomed in many quarters--including this one.  I toasted him with a lovely California cabernet last night--and that is a rare occasion indeed.  Common sense seems to have prevailed at least partially.  I say "partially" because some confusion still remains regarding what the Gov. really meant and how he will stick to it as the details of The Money become clearer.  The post below has some of the direct quotes in the comment section.  My first-glance quick list of money issues that remain are:

--Is the Caltrain electrification funding still available?  It appears so since Newsom mentioned the "bookend" funding which fits Caltrain.  The Daily Journal editorial shows the size of the need writing "Those who are familiar with the nuts and bolts of Caltrain electrification may be concerned that a refocus of the high-speed rail project on the Central Valley may mean that a $713 million commitment toward the $2 billion local project would evaporate."  Caltrain brass quoted in Railway Age state "The Caltrain Electrification Project is currently under construction and is scheduled to be complete in 2022. Last year, the State increased its commitment to the electrification of Caltrain service when it awarded an additional $165 million to support the purchase of additional electric trains. Caltrain is currently working to complete the Caltrain Business Plan".  Unlike HSR, electrification is popular to the extent the general public understands it, so here's hoping for enough money to finish.

--To keep building the Central Valley sliver that Newsom is still committed to he will have to hold onto the federal money.  His quote about not wanting to send it back to Donald Trump may or may not be wishful thinking.  Expect some legal wrangling over whether a short bit of track constitutes performance.  If the remaining federal funds are clawed-back, then the whole scheme collapses including the bit about continuing to do the environmental review of the longer section.  At least one state legislator noted that continuing the environmental review leaves property owners in limbo potentially for decades.

--If you want to get really train-geeky, here is a detailed piece titled California HSR: Seven Deadly Mistakes that goes into all sorts of the funding and approval mistakes that have doomed this boondoggle from the beginning.  #3 is my favorite and we knew this from the get go:  CHSRA then made a broader leap for the remainder of the funding, saying that its finance team “anticipates that the commitment of state and federal dollars will attract private sector funding.”  The other six are equally damning.

California taxpayers can mark Feb. 12, 2019 as a day that may have saved their bacon for another campfire like pensions, "affordable housing" subsidies, "free health care" or any number of other Newsom priorities.  But for now, B'game can rejoice that a vision of trains blasting through town at grade at 110 mph, interspersed with more Caltrain and freight trains, purporting to be faster, safer and cheaper than flying has passed with Jerry Brown's tenure. 

High-Cost Rail - Part 146 Newsom's Decision Time

We touched on Gov. Gavin's dilemma back in November just after the election.  Now, two months in with a budget sort of laid out, many pundits are thinking it is decision time on high-speed, high-cost rail.  A certain Brooklyn bartender who has made it to Congress lumps high-speed rail in with a number of other high-cost ideas, but Newsom is perhaps a bit more astute than that.  Here is one pundit quoting two others on the prospects for California

However, campaign promises are easily forgotten. As are responses intended to keep local folks happy. This is the same politician, after all, who said in 2015 that if he became governor, he’d probably kill two of Gov. Jerry Brown’s signature projects— high-speed rail and the Delta water tunnels.

Will the real Gov. Newsom please stand up?

I ask because longtime Newsom and Capitol watcher Dan Walters visited Fresno on Monday and told a room filled with Rotarians and their guests: “I have a hunch it is going to die. Newsom is not so enamored of the bullet train.”

Wrote Gabriel Dillard of The Business Journal: “There was a gasp in the room of Fresno community leaders … .”

I called Walters seeking the context of his remarks. He said that he expects only the first segment of high-speed rail to be completed, leaving the Valley with a souped-up version of Amtrak. But he put the odds of the line going from Bakersfield to the Bay Area as less than 50-50.

Click through for the rest of the piece by Bill McEwen especially where he notes some powerful California Dems are starting to get cold feet.  The Fresno mayor demonstrates the exact wrong thinking on any giant capital expense when he says "we’re too far into it, I think, for the state just to walk away".  Figure less than 10% of the total final cost has been spent--that is a sunk cost and better to not sink the whole state.