The Burlingame Voice

Rent Control - Part 10 Declining Rents

I've noticed an uptick in For Rent signs in B'game, especially along El Camino.  As I was wondering if we have hit a peak in rents just in time for an election that has the potential to mess up the rental market with Measure R for rotten, along comes this bit of news courtesy of the Wall Street Journal

Apartment rents declined in some of the country's priciest cities during the third quarter, a dramatic reversal that could signal the end of a six-year boom for the U.S. rental market....“San Francisco and New York are leading the way in the downturn,” said Ken Rosen,chairman of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. “People are going to be surprised that this is happening but they shouldn’t be. It’s been too far, too fast.”

Almost 6,700 additional apartments are expected to be built in San Jose and nearly 6,500 more in San Francisco by the end of 2018, according to Axiometrics.  At the same time, job growth is losing steam in some major cities. San Francisco added 26,000 new jobs in August 2016, about half the 47,000 jobs it added in the year-earlier period, according to an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Mr. Rosen.

And naturally there isn't one drop of progress on finding any new water sources or storage facilities in the works for those 13,200 apartments or any of the others being build in between SF and SJ.  Good plan.  In the meantime, if a tenant leaves of their own volition under Measure R do they still retain the right of return?  Do they have to pay the prior rate if it's higher.  I bet not.

Rent Control - Part 9 Back and Forth

The Daily Journal has a round-up type of article today on Measure R.  It's a valiant effort to stay balanced right from the start

Frustrated Burlingame residents pointed to the perceived unwillingness of local officials to address the escalating cost of living as partial justification for their fight in favor of rent control on the fall election ballot.

But opponents claim the proposal to establish renter protections such as just cause eviction policies, mandated relocation assistance along with rent stabilization is ill considered and rife with the threat of harmful unintended consequences.

Parties on opposing sides of the divisive Measure R initiative committed countless hours and dedicated more than $100,000 in campaign contributions in an attempt to persuade voters.

With roughly one month until Election Day, rent control advocate Cindy Cornell, president of the Burlingame Advocates for Renter Protections, claimed the measure is a response to the City Council’s reluctance to acknowledge the plight of Burlingame renters.

In its effort to stay balanced, the DJ left off one divergent point of view.  There are plenty of us who don't think the government should be meddling in housing economics of any sort.  You can and should click through to read the back and forth which ends up at one of the most harmful clauses of the ordinance which we have discussed in Part 3 here

Further compounding the concerns of those in opposition is the proposed formation of a rental housing commission, which would be required to keep three of its five members as renters.

Council members, who universally supported an argument against Measure R, noted the commission could be a costly endeavor for the city as it would be charged with setting rents at levels considered to be “fair and equitable,” and could have the power to authorize rate adjustments, establish penalties for noncompliance with its regulations, pursue lawsuits when commissioners see fit and a variety of other administrative duties.

Such authority could invite lawsuits, which Antonio said may ultimately harm the city’s bottom line in a fashion unlike any other city commission or board.

“No other commission has the power of the purse,” she said.

Nor should any unelected commission with a tortured composition have the unlimited power of the purse.

 

St. Francis' blessing

For a variety of Christians today is St. Francis of Assisi's feast day (October 4th).  My two pooches looked like they could use a blessing so we trotted over to St. Catherine's for the outdoor blessing of pets before school started.  Very fun with a wide variety of dogs and a few cats mixed in.  Here is Fr. John sprinkling a pooch or two.

Crime Statistics Up

The SacBee's Dan Walter is highlighting some disturbing statistics on the California crime front here.  As a reminder you can see the recent incidents in B'game via the app located here.  Walters notes

in 2015, California saw a 7.6 percent increase in violent acts from the previous year to 166,883, or 426.3 per 100,000 population.

That was 2 1/2 times the 3 percent national increase, the 13th highest of any state. Moreover, California’s overall violent crime rate is also the nation’s 13th highest. Our homicide rate increased by 8.5 percent, well over the 4.9 percent recorded nationally.

Walters goes on to describe the "realignment" that relieved state prison crowding and highlights three ballot measures--click through for the detail.  When push comes to shove, his conclusion merits thinking about

 

...but when California’s crime rates, both violent and nonviolent, spike much higher than national trends, we should legitimately wonder whether releasing tens of thousands of criminals who otherwise would have been behind bars is having a negative effect.

 

As a reminder, here is some earlier commentary on BPD priorities.

Whither Panotiq?

Things have been pretty heavy lately with the incursion of a bunch of too-big developments, a ridiculously expensive and socialistic Measure R and an overarching feeling that the country is going in the wrong direction.  So let's lighten up just a bit and ask, "When is Panotiq actually going to show up on the Ave?"  This sign is getting to be a joke and with that pricey real estate, the joke must be on some poor soul.

I could ask the same about a couple of other restaurants-going-into-spaces-that-were-already-restaurants, but Panotiq is at the top of the delayed list right now.

School Class Size Doubts

Here at the Burlingame Voice we have a fine appreciation for the Law of Unintended Consequences.  It's a pretty iron-clad law.  Some side effect you did not expect will arise and often counter whatever good thing you were trying to accomplish.  Today's Wall Street Journal has a piece about the 20+ year experiment in reducing school class sizes to improve learning.

A generation ago, a landmark experiment in Tennessee found that shrinking the number of children in kindergarten and first-grade classrooms led to improved test scores.  California limited classes to 20 students in kindergarten through third grade.  Over the years, at least half the states have used mandates or incentives to reduce class sizes, but the reductions are one of the most expensive interventions in education, and lately, some places are backing off.

"Small classes do provide modest benefits to the students with respect to academic achievement," said Martin West, an associate professor of education at Harvard, "but the benefits are less strong than being assigned to a particularly effective teacher."  “California implemented its program almost overnight,” said Dominic Brewer, dean of New York University’s Steinhardt School of Culture, Education, and Human Development, who followed the reduction. “It created a dramatic increase in the demand for teachers.”

Inexperienced or in some cases uncertified teachers were hired to staff new classrooms, and with so many additional jobs to fill, wealthier districts were able to lure better teachers away from poorer districts.  Space also became an issue.  “You did end up with kids in small classes,” Dr. Brewer said, “but often they were in a trailer and not necessarily with a quality teacher.”

We have Measure M on the ballot this time and the focus is on facilities as you can read here.  B'game has a well-deserved reputation for great schools and that enhances our attractiveness on a number of fronts.  And overall spending is up quite a bit while the split between city government and school governance continues.  My guess is M will pass since B'gamers resonate with taxes that stay local.  I just hope we are spending it in the right way.