Crime Statistics Up

The SacBee's Dan Walter is highlighting some disturbing statistics on the California crime front here.  As a reminder you can see the recent incidents in B'game via the app located here.  Walters notes

in 2015, California saw a 7.6 percent increase in violent acts from the previous year to 166,883, or 426.3 per 100,000 population.

That was 2 1/2 times the 3 percent national increase, the 13th highest of any state. Moreover, California’s overall violent crime rate is also the nation’s 13th highest. Our homicide rate increased by 8.5 percent, well over the 4.9 percent recorded nationally.

Walters goes on to describe the "realignment" that relieved state prison crowding and highlights three ballot measures--click through for the detail.  When push comes to shove, his conclusion merits thinking about

 

...but when California’s crime rates, both violent and nonviolent, spike much higher than national trends, we should legitimately wonder whether releasing tens of thousands of criminals who otherwise would have been behind bars is having a negative effect.

 

As a reminder, here is some earlier commentary on BPD priorities.

Comments

[G'day]

If delusional politicians like Jerry Brown, Gavin Newsom, Ed Lee and Jackie Speier would finally stop breaking the immigration laws by encouraging illegal immigration and a shit ton of free services to illegal immigrants then we would have far fewer Foreign-Owned Gangs, their Foreign Produced Illegal, Extremely Destructive Drugs, Human Trafficking, Violence and Murder. But they are more into maximizing their votes instead of helping to protect our communities.

The root of what's strong and good in our communities and country is the rule of law with individual civil rights. Not police abuse of power and corruption, but consistently standing up for the rule of law.

Unfortunately too many politicians and residents end up supporting the classic problems of society- intolerance to differences and dissent, in group / out group bias, might and wealth makes right, and a selfish worship of whatever puts the most money in your pocket with no regard for what's right for the community for the long run.

It's true, Trump is a disgusting, spoiled brat. And Billary is a disgusting, grossly negligent and willfully misconducting pay-off monger.

I hope that we can regain our sense of priorities and goodness at home and in our communities and somehow push for better political and community leaders despite the two terrible choices for our country's highest office.

And now a retort on The First Debate from California's famous "common sense" commentator, Bill Whittle. https://www.facebook.com/bill.whittle/videos/10154823398197454/

[Thomas Hornblower]

Here's an informative article/study linking crime data to the CPI.http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/some_true_stats_about_crime_rates/

It's my opinion that the crime rate in the SF Bay Area has been on the rise due to the increase in the cost of living (rent, food, insurance etc...).

[kooky hillsider]

So?

Is that supposed to be an excuse? I'm a little short this month so who can I rip off?

[Thomas Hornblower]

Sorry, I left out another major reason for an increase in crime, the increase in the use of drugs like meth & heroin.

[[email protected]]

I am sure once Rent Control happens everything will be good again.

At the minimum, murder, sex crimes, bank robberies-exception being Wells Fargo on Broadway, car jacking's, and most importantly, loud music, will finally be banished from "Our Fair City."

I have to agree with G'Day that illegal immigration, is a very large component of State, & County, financial problems.
Without a clear mandate from the Federal Government, money and other important resources are being wasted on just figuring out what to do.

[G'day]

Well, one of my friends led the "Largest Meth Bust In The History of The United States" from the DOJ/US Attorney's Office a couple years ago, so hopefully that helped. Brought him as a speaker, the members Loved it, but probably scared a few. https://youtu.be/PR5awtliFs4

Another buddy wrote "Methland", a non fiction book which describes the epidemic in the trenches. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-FcVaqYZCc

Or, you can consider the Primary Resource of National Geographic's documentary on Meth trafficking and the folks they interview - Guess What? https://youtu.be/cJGmUTtp4p0

It's mostly the Illegal Immigrants from the Foreign Organized Crime Corporations that are leading and staffing this massive attack on our friends and families and neighbors - to rob of their health and their savings and their relationships.

Of course, no one (I'm not) is saying that all recent immigrants, or all illegal immigrants or all immigrants of a certain ethnicity are behind Meth et all trafficking and poisoning and violence in our communities... It's just that almost all of the drug traffickers are Organized Crime / Gang Bangers and almost all of those folks are Illegal Immigrants up here to rip our money and destroy our health and safety - they don't give a shit about our communities.

Then, one has to consider the long track record of pay-offs and corruption.

Then, one has to consider who the long established, local organized crime leaders are. Do you know them from The Ave?

Then, one has to consider which political leaders who those folks have contributed to and socialize with.

Then, one has to say to themselves - holy shit, democracy and voting and trusting big government and abusive police and their cronies to protect we as citizens is a complete fraud and disaster.

Then, you vote accordingly. Then, you support individual rights. Then, you protect yourself and your family.

Then, you stand up to the bullies rather than let them continue to pull the strings.

Maybe it's time to simply restore "Law & Order" and to stop letting our politicians and our law enforcement employees pick and choose which laws they follow, according to which ones are fashionable at the moment.

[[email protected]]

Settle Down Big Fella.
You made your point.
Excellent point!
However, "You People" loose us with the Nazi/Zionist/conspiracy BS.
There have been some unusually weird lights emanating from the City Manager's office "after hours.'

[kooky hillsider]

You might be the first lunatic in history to use the phrase "Nazi/Zionist". Do you realize how messed up your brain is? I hope the DMV has told you that you can no longer drive.

[G'day]

Nope my statements aren't racist in the slightest, actually.

And Zionist means Jewish, which my comments don't pertain to in the slightest. Conspiracy? Yep, there's a crime category for that 'cause it actually happens frequently when money, criminals/felons and govt is involved.

Perhaps you should re-read my comments one word at a time.

[[email protected]]

Can't "You People" calm down and enjoy the witty banter?
"You People."

[Joe]

Back on topic, the WSJ had an interesting piece today:

Though voters passed the initiative 60% to 40%, Prop. 47 has fallen victim to the law of unintended consequences. Last year there were 22,000 fewer drug arrests than in 2014. Police officers have noted that it makes no sense to haul in drug users since they face little if any jail time. Even those repeatedly cited are often released after only a few days behind bars. Many land on the streets. It’s surely no coincidence that the syringe-littered Santa Ana Civic Center is adjacent to Orange County’s central jail complex.

County drug-court programs report fewer participants since Prop. 47 passed. The threat of a felony conviction and years in jail used to encourage addicts to enter treatment. Less so now. “There is strong evidence that it is not so much the severity of punishment, measured by sentence length, as the certainty of punishment that is most important in deterring crime,” the Public Policy Institute of California noted last year in a report on alternatives to incarceration.

Unpunished drug use might also contribute to an increase in violence. Last November, 28-year-old Jimmy Truong shot at Santa Ana police and led them on a high-speed chase after being pulled over at a traffic stop. Mr. Truong had two felony convictions for drug possession, which had earned him a 16-month prison sentence. But after Prop. 47 the convictions were downgraded to misdemeanors and he was released without being placed on parole. “Prop. 47 has been a disaster for public safety,” the chief of staff for the Orange County district attorney said after the high-speed chase. “It was sold to the voters as safe neighborhoods and safe schools and it’s been anything but.”
_______________________________

So, thanks again for nothing, Jerry.

[G'day]

Holly, sorry I meant to look that up before I posted to make sure. Zionism "is a nationalist political movement of Jews and Jewish culture that supports the re-establishment of a Jewish homeland in the territory defined as the historic Land of Israel (roughly corresponding to Palestine, Canaan or the Holy Land)." So yes, not pertaining to any of my comments at all. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zionism

One other source of increased crime states could be: 1) police are reporting more actual crimes as they've been proven to not report all of them in the past, 2) police and other gov't employees are enabling crimes because "Why should Google employees be making all the money?" (An elected official actually said this to me recently.)

We've all seen how [Power corrupts, and Absolute Power corrupts absolutely] whether in the old Feudalism of Europe or the Catholic Church Administration's global enabling of child molestation or in the What-The-Heck-Was-He-Thinking Leland Yee's enabling of Rocket Launcher sales and rarcketeering and Mark Ladas and wife's credit card fraud and the long, sad track record of Labor Racketeering and thus defrauding the honest laborers, etc.

And perhaps during strong economies, poorer folks think "Why should the Google employees be making all the money?" and so some of them commit more crimes.

Joe and Russ are excellent at careful analysis, but with some problems, one doesn't have to look too hard to find the source of the problems - and the citizens of our communities just head back to their couches to watch some more American Ninja...

It's time to stop government infringement upon our natural rights and liberty. It's time to stop the Frankenstein of unlimited government power and thus corruption in our communities.

Stopping Government Corruption is the FBI's #1 priority for a very good reason. https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/public-corruption

[[email protected]]

White collar crime is not looked into enough.
Unfortunately, the people who look into that sorted(White Collar) and varied crime are either 2-3 steps behind, or have "Seven Degrees of Separation," from the crime that may prevent the "Head to Toe-body Cavity investigation nessesary.
Thank you for your comments...
Crackey.

[pat giorni]

I came across this today on Nextdoor.I suggested that the resident post here, but in case he doesn't....

Burlingame crime statistics - conclusion: we have an information wave, not a crime wave

Hi All -

There have been many posts on NextDoor over the 4 years we have lived in Burlingame suggesting that it is no longer a safe place to live, crime is running rampant and getting worse, etc. At the same time, we have all seen many posts reporting theft of packages or by postal workers, pictures of thieves in our neighborhood, reports of cars broken into or stolen, home burglaries, etc. My instincts have always been that the second causes the first. Meaning that we have an unprecedented level of visibility into crime in our neighborhood (specifically, all of us see via NextDoor reports of crimes committed in Burlingame and conclude that crime is rising). But what we really have is an information wave, since previously we never would have known that a car 5 blocks away was broken into, unless it happened to a friend or one of our kids' classmates. This is not to say that there is no crime - just that the crime is no worse, and probably better, than when we all grew up, or 10-20 years ago. To test this hypothesis, I pulled the FBI crime statistics for Burlingame for the past 20 years (as far back as they go - note that there was a new category of rape introduced in the FBI statistics in 2013).

Since we don't full data yet for 2016, as it takes them months to collect and assemble the data, I also looked at the San Mateo data for the first half of 2016, compared against the first half of 2015. If you take my word for it, 2016 is looking the same as 2015, at the San Mateo level.

Exec summary: Burlingame has gotten *safer* (meaning there is significantly less crime) over the past 20 years. While there was an uptick in property crime in 2015, it is still well below where it was 20 years ago, and does not appear to be increasing in 2016. And there has been no such uptick in violent crime, which consistently remains half of what it was 20 years ago - and is what our family really cares about.

If the FBI statistics went back 50 years, we would also find Burlingame to be much safer now than when most of us were children. For example, California crime stats show that statewide, crime rates are a little lower now vs 1960 and WAY below where they were in the 70's and 80's, when they peaked at about 2X the current crime rates (http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_sho...). I know for many people it doesn't *feel* that way. Because we watch the evening news, read the crime reports on NextDoor and become fearful. But still in Burlingame, we are safer than in the past and for those of us who give our children the freedom to roam here and be on their own that many of us had growing up, we can all rest easy that while the world has never been completely safe, our little corner of it here is not in fact getting more dangerous...

For anyone who doesn't care about my personal positions on this and just wants to see the FBI data, I've put it all in a Google spreadsheet available at:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...

And for those of you who want to peruse the FBI crime data yourself, you can find links to the last 20 years of reports at: https://ucr.fbi.gov/ucr-publications. Click the year you want, then scroll down to the FAQ saying "How many crimes came to the attention of law enforcement in my city in ?" for years through 2006. For older years, you have to download the file "Section II: Offences Reported (pdf)" and then search for Burlingame.

Finally, note that I am not trying to discourage anyone from reporting crime via NextDoor. I just hope to give people more information with which to process those pieces of data into more general conclusions about our neighborhood safety.

In any case, I hope everyone has a great, and safe, 2017!

Dave
_____________________________________

I agree with the author that Burlingame is a safe place to reside.

[Ivan Korwasky]

White Collar Bank Fraud Crime like Bernie Sanders and his Wife. They sure talked a good game to end up being the biggest crooks in years.

[Ivan Korwasky]

Just a link on Sanctuary Cities Crime Rates:

http://www.wnd.com/2017/04/data-in-sanctuary-cities-have-higher-crime-rates/

[Governed by gangsters?]

Have you ever met Gavin Newsom? He's gotta be one of the worst spoken Politicians I've ever heard. He's newscaster good looking, but his strengths end there.

And his weaknesses? Who wants to be governed by gangsters?

Very well known fact in The Marina District.

Here's an excellent reminder of who Gavin Newsom really is. Please, please come up with a better candidate even if they're a supermajority Democrat...of course a Dem will win but let's find someone who isn't part of The Problem.

Check out this video on YouTube:

http://youtu.be/s_D4uUuSH8g