High Cost Rail - Part 102 Reformed Poobah Speaks

Quentin Kopp has made a steady transition to a critic of the California high-cost rail as it is currently planned.  That is certainly more enlightened than Sue Lempert's perspective.  What is more fun than watching a reformed former poobah (his term) take to task an unreformed former poobah as Kopp has done in this opinion piece? 

A lot of the refuted points relate to the history of BART, the MTC, SamTrans, but the high cost rail part is the best

I add more historical footnotes. SamTrans never operated the BART-to-SFO extension. The Burlingame City Council did not oppose such extension, just as it has opposed the California High-Speed Rail project. But, that project is no longer high speed. As stated by its chairman last February, it now represents a “statewide rail modernization program ...,” not a system which travels at 200 mph in the Central Valley and even up to 125 mph on the Peninsula and in the Los Angeles Basin. That’s the reason, to quote Ms. Lempert, “... today, we have another group of people fighting high-speed rail.” That’s the reason Kings County and two county ranchers filed a thus far winning lawsuit over violations of the 2008 bond measure approved by voters in the amount of $9.95 billion, such as forcing riders from San Francisco to Los Angeles to change trains twice, preventing high-speed trains from operating at five-minute headways during peak hours and not meeting ballot measure-required travel times between San Francisco and Los Angeles and other routes.

and on the cost picture, Kopp appears to have gotten religion

Finally, Lempert’s reliance on the current estimate of just under $68 billion for a high-speed rail from San Francisco to Los Angeles is misplaced; a year ago, the $98 billion estimate spawned a paroxysm of anxiety in architects of the present bastardization of California High-Speed Rail, including its chairman and all but two other board members. The ballot measure requirement of service from San Francisco to Anaheim (not just Los Angeles) was quickly ignored to reduce the cost estimate to $68 billion, which was then reduced last February to $67.5 billion! (I didn’t know California was experiencing deflation).

He still not a full-convert because even if the plan was fully compliant with the original Proposition it would still have massive flaws in its business plan and operational complexity and impact on cities along the route.  But, all-in-all, welcome aboard!

Comments

[Bruce Dickinson]

Grand Pooba or Grand Poopah? Sounds like the diapers are off and its time to flip-flop and poop on that which was once held on a pedestal. Yesterday's pedestal is today's toilet, but I would be remiss if I didn't say that I get it. Politicians, as Bruce Dickinson has said many a time, are pretty fickle and you never know what they really believe in, and this is yet another likely example.

I will note, though, as Joe mentioned that it is nice to see more officials and politicians get all aboard, or off-board, if you will, the HSR project, but how can they not, when it's all but dead, or de-Fanged, as it were, and with minimal public support as it stands today. Easy to be Captain Obvious, but where were the critics when things were not so obvious and it took some deep digging and critical thinking to point out flaws and go against what was popular? Related to this point, anyone ever think about the cost of a tramway from San Bruno to SFO? Probably would be cheaper than building a whole BART line.

Also, like with any politician, one has to literally parse the words of what he/she says with a word mincer. To wit, saying the "BART to SFO" line is profitable and earns a 15 per cent profit margin. Folks, think about it, what about those passengers who start their trip to SFO in Pittsburgh or Dublin/Pleansanton. Are those properly allocated among those lines? If you proportionally allocate the fare from the SF to SFO leg for a passenger that boards at the Pittsburgh BART station, that's not exactly fair (no pun intended), because they probably would not have boarded to begin with if there were no BART station in Pittsburgh. I guarantee you, the fares from other parts of the BART system are understated and the legs to SFO are over-stated in his statistics.

Also, a small bone to pick, but a "gaudy celebration" at a Peninsula Hotel? Bruce Dickinson can't really imagine any gaudy celebration at any peninsula hotel. That's like saying you have a wine cellar in a mobile home--it doesn't exist. Unless he's talking about the Four Seasons or Rosewood, it really can't be that gaudy, so really, I think he needs to tone down the hyperbole, because if such a detail is exaggerated, when what else is also exaggerated or worse, mis-represented?

Just another friendly reminder, guys, that you have to watch public officials like a hawk and really be careful as to what they're both saying and NOT saying and how they're saying it. Very little of what you see is what you actually get.

[Joe]

I'll add another bone worth picking, Bruce D. The bit about "The Burlingame City Council did not oppose such extension, just as it has opposed the California High-Speed Rail project." felt like a typo when I first read it since I recall Spinelli in particular not taking the BART bait. So check this out from the Comicle:

"The opponents, led by Burlingame Council Members Mike Spinelli and Marti Knight, said they will try for November but concede the difficulty. Spinelli acknowledged that part of the plan in circulating a petition is to show Congress, which holds the financial purse strings, that support is not universal for the long-planned extension from Colma to SFO.

"We want them to look at it more closely," Spinelli said. "Somebody has to stand up and say, 'Let's look at this thing before we throw all this money at it.' "

The initiative would require an independent analysis of the project's estimated cost, which opponents say is more than BART's estimate. A second vote, after the analysis is complete, would ask voters if they want the full extension, with stations in South San Francisco, San Bruno, SFO and Millbrae.

However, by the time the two votes could be completed, the project would probably be well under way and the results probably would not be binding, said county Supervisor Mike Nevin."

The full article is here: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/BART-to-SFO-Foes-Likely-Have-Missed-the-Train-2975386.php

Gotta watch the poobahs like a hawk.....