Columnist John Horgan from the San Mateo County Times has the experience, research skills and logic to bring us some of the most cogent analysis available from the press these days. Here is a great case in point from today:
By John Horgan MONEY, no matter the source, is getting tight. Not surprisingly, government budgets are under extreme stress. Just look at the painful example of the state of California for proof. And then there's San Mateo County. Amidst all of the outcry, weeping and wailing, the county's 2008-09 financial plan is remarkably stable. Yes, there have been some important tweaks, a few very careful trimmings around the edges, but wholesale layoffs, wrenching, extensive program cuts and other draconian moves are not in the cards. The latest budget, which totals just over $1.7 billion in spending (not a whole lot more than the previous year), is projected to be in deficit by about $25 million, a figure easily made up out of reserves. The one significant caveat is that, without great care and attention, annual red ink could become a disturbing reality. Still, the relative health of the county's fiscal plan, when compared to others, is one more strong indication that the area's overall economic strengths continue to bolster the public coffers while much of the rest of the Golden State shudders. Even real estate's assessed values, a county linchpin for years, have held up remarkably well, though how long that can persist remains to be seen in light of the recent regional downturn. These trends have been ongoing. Data provided by the county show that, through the years, its revenues and spending have risen sharply, well beyond the rate of inflation at the same time the Peninsula's overall population has barely budged. Taken on an annual basis, the county treasury has ballooned by an average of more than 10 percent per year from 1999-00 to 2007-08. That's roughly three times the rate of inflation during that period. Further, salaries and benefits for employees have shot up even more at 12 percent per year. Beyond the apparent phenomenon of an influx of needy individuals via immigration and other demographic factors, there are some other reasons for the spending uptick, including shifts in funding for certain state-mandated programs. However, 2008-09 will not see such big spending hikes. A much more conservative approach is in order this time. But the bottom line remains: No matter how you care to parse it, the county, guardedly, is in pretty good monetary shape. At least for now.Too little of what we read these days (and virtually nothing of what one can watch on TV) puts data in perspective the way Mr. Horgan does. You read the budget is x dollars and the deficit is y dollars, but without comparing it to the population growth, the rate of inflation and considering state mandates, x and y are just numbers. Bravo.
- Written by Joe
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